Introduction: Increasing interest in real-world evidence has fueled the development of study designs incorporating real-world data (RWD). Using the Causal Roadmap, we specify three designs to evaluate the difference in risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care: 1) the actual sequence of non-inferiority and superiority randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 2) a single RCT, and 3) a hybrid randomized-external data study. Methods: The hybrid design considers integration of the PIONEER 6 RCT with RWD controls using the experiment-selector cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator. We evaluate 95% confidence interval coverage, power, and average patient-time during which participants would be precluded from receiving a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) for each design using simulations. Finally, we estimate the effect of oral semaglutide on MACE for the hybrid PIONEER 6-RWD analysis. Results: In simulations, Designs 1 and 2 performed similarly. The tradeoff between decreased coverage and patient-time without the possibility of a GLP1-RA for Designs 1 and 3 depended on the simulated bias. In real data analysis using Design 3, external controls were integrated in 84% of cross-validation folds, resulting in an estimated risk difference of -1.53%-points (95% CI -2.75%-points to -0.30%-points). Conclusions: The Causal Roadmap helps investigators to minimize potential bias in studies using RWD and to quantify tradeoffs between study designs. The simulation results help to interpret the level of evidence provided by the real data analysis in support of the superiority of oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care for cardiovascular risk reduction.
Ultrasound (US) imaging is a popular tool in clinical diagnosis, offering safety, repeatability, and real-time capabilities. Freehand 3D US is a technique that provides a deeper understanding of scanned regions without increasing complexity. However, estimating elevation displacement and accumulation error remains challenging, making it difficult to infer the relative position using images alone. The addition of external lightweight sensors has been proposed to enhance reconstruction performance without adding complexity, which has been shown to be beneficial. We propose a novel online self-consistency network (OSCNet) using multiple inertial measurement units (IMUs) to improve reconstruction performance. OSCNet utilizes a modal-level self-supervised strategy to fuse multiple IMU information and reduce differences between reconstruction results obtained from each IMU data. Additionally, a sequence-level self-consistency strategy is proposed to improve the hierarchical consistency of prediction results among the scanning sequence and its sub-sequences. Experiments on large-scale arm and carotid datasets with multiple scanning tactics demonstrate that our OSCNet outperforms previous methods, achieving state-of-the-art reconstruction performance.
Large language models (LLMs) have been recently leveraged as training data generators for various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. While previous research has explored different approaches to training models using generated data, they generally rely on simple class-conditional prompts, which may limit the diversity of the generated data and inherit systematic biases of LLM. Thus, we investigate training data generation with diversely attributed prompts (e.g., specifying attributes like length and style), which have the potential to yield diverse and attributed generated data. Our investigation focuses on datasets with high cardinality and diverse domains, wherein we demonstrate that attributed prompts outperform simple class-conditional prompts in terms of the resulting model's performance. Additionally, we present a comprehensive empirical study on data generation encompassing vital aspects like bias, diversity, and efficiency, and highlight three key observations: firstly, synthetic datasets generated by simple prompts exhibit significant biases, such as regional bias; secondly, attribute diversity plays a pivotal role in enhancing model performance; lastly, attributed prompts achieve the performance of simple class-conditional prompts while utilizing only 5\% of the querying cost of ChatGPT associated with the latter. We release the generated dataset and used prompts to facilitate future research. The data and code will be available on \url{//github.com/yueyu1030/AttrPrompt}.
Causal inference in spatial settings is met with unique challenges and opportunities. In spatial settings, a unit's outcome might be affected by the exposure at many locations and the confounders might be spatially structured. Using causal diagrams, we investigate the complications that arise when investigating causal relationships from spatial data. We illustrate that spatial confounding and interference can manifest as each other, meaning that investigating the presence of one can lead to wrongful conclusions in the presence of the other. We also show that statistical dependencies in the exposure can render standard analyses invalid, which can have crucial implications for understanding the effect of interventions on dependent units. Based on the conclusions from this investigation, we propose a parametric approach that simultaneously accounts for interference and mitigates bias from local and neighborhood unmeasured spatial confounding. We show that incorporating an exposure model is necessary from a Bayesian perspective. Therefore, the proposed approach is based on modeling the exposure and the outcome simultaneously while accounting for the presence of common spatially-structured unmeasured predictors. We illustrate our approach with a simulation study and with an analysis of the local and interference effects of sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants on cardiovascular mortality.
Separating signals from an additive mixture may be an unnecessarily hard problem when one is only interested in specific properties of a given signal. In this work, we tackle simpler "statistical component separation" problems that focus on recovering a predefined set of statistical descriptors of a target signal from a noisy mixture. Assuming access to samples of the noise process, we investigate a method devised to match the statistics of the solution candidate corrupted by noise samples with those of the observed mixture. We first analyze the behavior of this method using simple examples with analytically tractable calculations. Then, we apply it in an image denoising context employing 1) wavelet-based descriptors, 2) ConvNet-based descriptors on astrophysics and ImageNet data. In the case of 1), we show that our method better recovers the descriptors of the target data than a standard denoising method in most situations. Additionally, despite not constructed for this purpose, it performs surprisingly well in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio on full signal reconstruction. In comparison, representation 2) appears less suitable for image denoising. Finally, we extend this method by introducing a diffusive stepwise algorithm which gives a new perspective to the initial method and leads to promising results for image denoising under specific circumstances.
We study universal traits which emerge both in real-world complex datasets, as well as in artificially generated ones. Our approach is to analogize data to a physical system and employ tools from statistical physics and Random Matrix Theory (RMT) to reveal their underlying structure. We focus on the feature-feature covariance matrix, analyzing both its local and global eigenvalue statistics. Our main observations are: (i) The power-law scalings that the bulk of its eigenvalues exhibit are vastly different for uncorrelated random data compared to real-world data, (ii) this scaling behavior can be completely recovered by introducing long range correlations in a simple way to the synthetic data, (iii) both generated and real-world datasets lie in the same universality class from the RMT perspective, as chaotic rather than integrable systems, (iv) the expected RMT statistical behavior already manifests for empirical covariance matrices at dataset sizes significantly smaller than those conventionally used for real-world training, and can be related to the number of samples required to approximate the population power-law scaling behavior, (v) the Shannon entropy is correlated with local RMT structure and eigenvalues scaling, and substantially smaller in strongly correlated datasets compared to uncorrelated synthetic data, and requires fewer samples to reach the distribution entropy. These findings can have numerous implications to the characterization of the complexity of data sets, including differentiating synthetically generated from natural data, quantifying noise, developing better data pruning methods and classifying effective learning models utilizing these scaling laws.
Although data-driven methods usually have noticeable performance on disease diagnosis and treatment, they are suspected of leakage of privacy due to collecting data for model training. Recently, federated learning provides a secure and trustable alternative to collaboratively train model without any exchange of medical data among multiple institutes. Therefore, it has draw much attention due to its natural merit on privacy protection. However, when heterogenous medical data exists between different hospitals, federated learning usually has to face with degradation of performance. In the paper, we propose a new personalized framework of federated learning to handle the problem. It successfully yields personalized models based on awareness of similarity between local data, and achieves better tradeoff between generalization and personalization than existing methods. After that, we further design a differentially sparse regularizer to improve communication efficiency during procedure of model training. Additionally, we propose an effective method to reduce the computational cost, which improves computation efficiency significantly. Furthermore, we collect 5 real medical datasets, including 2 public medical image datasets and 3 private multi-center clinical diagnosis datasets, and evaluate its performance by conducting nodule classification, tumor segmentation, and clinical risk prediction tasks. Comparing with 13 existing related methods, the proposed method successfully achieves the best model performance, and meanwhile up to 60% improvement of communication efficiency. Source code is public, and can be accessed at: //github.com/ApplicationTechnologyOfMedicalBigData/pFedNet-code.
We study the problem of learning with selectively labeled data, which arises when outcomes are only partially labeled due to historical decision-making. The labeled data distribution may substantially differ from the full population, especially when the historical decisions and the target outcome can be simultaneously affected by some unobserved factors. Consequently, learning with only the labeled data may lead to severely biased results when deployed to the full population. Our paper tackles this challenge by exploiting the fact that in many applications the historical decisions were made by a set of heterogeneous decision-makers. In particular, we analyze this setup in a principled instrumental variable (IV) framework. We establish conditions for the full-population risk of any given prediction rule to be point-identified from the observed data and provide sharp risk bounds when the point identification fails. We further propose a weighted learning approach that learns prediction rules robust to the label selection bias in both identification settings. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to a semi-synthetic financial dataset and demonstrate its superior performance in the presence of selection bias.
Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal queries, researchers developed polynomial programs to estimate tight bounds on causal effect. However, these are computationally difficult to optimize for variables with large support sizes. In this paper, we analyze the effect of "weak confounding" on causal estimands. More specifically, under the assumption that the unobserved confounders that render a query non-identifiable have small entropy, we propose an efficient linear program to derive the upper and lower bounds of the causal effect. We show that our bounds are consistent in the sense that as the entropy of unobserved confounders goes to zero, the gap between the upper and lower bound vanishes. Finally, we conduct synthetic and real data simulations to compare our bounds with the bounds obtained by the existing work that cannot incorporate such entropy constraints and show that our bounds are tighter for the setting with weak confounders.
Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.