In Bayesian Networks (BNs), the direction of edges is crucial for causal reasoning and inference. However, Markov equivalence class considerations mean it is not always possible to establish edge orientations, which is why many BN structure learning algorithms cannot orientate all edges from purely observational data. Moreover, latent confounders can lead to false positive edges. Relatively few methods have been proposed to address these issues. In this work, we present the hybrid mFGS-BS (majority rule and Fast Greedy equivalence Search with Bayesian Scoring) algorithm for structure learning from discrete data that involves an observational data set and one or more interventional data sets. The algorithm assumes causal insufficiency in the presence of latent variables and produces a Partial Ancestral Graph (PAG). Structure learning relies on a hybrid approach and a novel Bayesian scoring paradigm that calculates the posterior probability of each directed edge being added to the learnt graph. Experimental results based on well-known networks of up to 109 variables and 10k sample size show that mFGS-BS improves structure learning accuracy relative to the state-of-the-art and it is computationally efficient.
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Causal effect estimation is important for numerous tasks in the natural and social sciences. However, identifying effects is impossible from observational data without making strong, often untestable assumptions. We consider algorithms for the partial identification problem, bounding treatment effects from multivariate, continuous treatments over multiple possible causal models when unmeasured confounding makes identification impossible. We consider a framework where observable evidence is matched to the implications of constraints encoded in a causal model by norm-based criteria. This generalizes classical approaches based purely on generative models. Casting causal effects as objective functions in a constrained optimization problem, we combine flexible learning algorithms with Monte Carlo methods to implement a family of solutions under the name of stochastic causal programming. In particular, we present ways by which such constrained optimization problems can be parameterized without likelihood functions for the causal or the observed data model, reducing the computational and statistical complexity of the task.
We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open challenge. Herein we propose Diff-SCM, a deep structural causal model that builds on recent advances of generative energy-based models. In our setting, inference is performed by iteratively sampling gradients of the marginal and conditional distributions entailed by the causal model. Counterfactual estimation is achieved by firstly inferring latent variables with deterministic forward diffusion, then intervening on a reverse diffusion process using the gradients of an anti-causal predictor w.r.t the input. Furthermore, we propose a metric for evaluating the generated counterfactuals. We find that Diff-SCM produces more realistic and minimal counterfactuals than baselines on MNIST data and can also be applied to ImageNet data. Code is available //github.com/vios-s/Diff-SCM.
We consider generalized Nash equilibrium problems (GNEPs) with non-convex strategy spaces and non-convex cost functions. This general class of games includes the important case of games with mixed-integer variables for which only a few results are known in the literature. We present a new approach to characterize equilibria via a convexification technique using the Nikaido-Isoda function. To any given instance of the GNEP, we construct a set of convexified instances and show that a feasible strategy profile is an equilibrium for the original instance if and only if it is an equilibrium for any convexified instance and the convexified cost functions coincide with the initial ones. We further develop this approach along three dimensions. We first show that for quasi-linear models, where a convexified instance exists in which for fixed strategies of the opponent players, the cost function of every player is linear and the respective strategy space is polyhedral, the convexification reduces the GNEP to a standard (non-linear) optimization problem. Secondly, we derive two complete characterizations of those GNEPs for which the convexification leads to a jointly constrained or a jointly convex GNEP, respectively. These characterizations require new concepts related to the interplay of the convex hull operator applied to restricted subsets of feasible strategies and may be interesting on their own. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our results by presenting a numerical study regarding the computation of equilibria for a class of integral network flow GNEPs.
Score-based algorithms that learn the structure of Bayesian networks can be used for both exact and approximate solutions. While approximate learning scales better with the number of variables, it can be computationally expensive in the presence of high dimensional data. This paper describes an approximate algorithm that performs parallel sampling on Candidate Parent Sets (CPSs), and can be viewed as an extension of MINOBS which is a state-of-the-art algorithm for structure learning from high dimensional data. The modified algorithm, which we call Parallel Sampling MINOBS (PS-MINOBS), constructs the graph by sampling CPSs for each variable. Sampling is performed in parallel under the assumption the distribution of CPSs is half-normal when ordered by Bayesian score for each variable. Sampling from a half-normal distribution ensures that the CPSs sampled are likely to be those which produce the higher scores. Empirical results show that, in most cases, the proposed algorithm discovers higher score structures than MINOBS when both algorithms are restricted to the same runtime limit.
Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many empirical sciences. Traditional score-based casual discovery methods rely on various local heuristics to search for a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) according to a predefined score function. While these methods, e.g., greedy equivalence search, may have attractive results with infinite samples and certain model assumptions, they are usually less satisfactory in practice due to finite data and possible violation of assumptions. Motivated by recent advances in neural combinatorial optimization, we propose to use Reinforcement Learning (RL) to search for the DAG with the best scoring. Our encoder-decoder model takes observable data as input and generates graph adjacency matrices that are used to compute rewards. The reward incorporates both the predefined score function and two penalty terms for enforcing acyclicity. In contrast with typical RL applications where the goal is to learn a policy, we use RL as a search strategy and our final output would be the graph, among all graphs generated during training, that achieves the best reward. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and show that the proposed approach not only has an improved search ability but also allows a flexible score function under the acyclicity constraint.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Deep structured models are widely used for tasks like semantic segmentation, where explicit correlations between variables provide important prior information which generally helps to reduce the data needs of deep nets. However, current deep structured models are restricted by oftentimes very local neighborhood structure, which cannot be increased for computational complexity reasons, and by the fact that the output configuration, or a representation thereof, cannot be transformed further. Very recent approaches which address those issues include graphical model inference inside deep nets so as to permit subsequent non-linear output space transformations. However, optimization of those formulations is challenging and not well understood. Here, we develop a novel model which generalizes existing approaches, such as structured prediction energy networks, and discuss a formulation which maintains applicability of existing inference techniques.
Topic models have been widely explored as probabilistic generative models of documents. Traditional inference methods have sought closed-form derivations for updating the models, however as the expressiveness of these models grows, so does the difficulty of performing fast and accurate inference over their parameters. This paper presents alternative neural approaches to topic modelling by providing parameterisable distributions over topics which permit training by backpropagation in the framework of neural variational inference. In addition, with the help of a stick-breaking construction, we propose a recurrent network that is able to discover a notionally unbounded number of topics, analogous to Bayesian non-parametric topic models. Experimental results on the MXM Song Lyrics, 20NewsGroups and Reuters News datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of these neural topic models.
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods generally engage in exploratory behavior through noise injection in the action space. An alternative is to add noise directly to the agent's parameters, which can lead to more consistent exploration and a richer set of behaviors. Methods such as evolutionary strategies use parameter perturbations, but discard all temporal structure in the process and require significantly more samples. Combining parameter noise with traditional RL methods allows to combine the best of both worlds. We demonstrate that both off- and on-policy methods benefit from this approach through experimental comparison of DQN, DDPG, and TRPO on high-dimensional discrete action environments as well as continuous control tasks. Our results show that RL with parameter noise learns more efficiently than traditional RL with action space noise and evolutionary strategies individually.
Knowledge graphs contain rich relational structures of the world, and thus complement data-driven machine learning in heterogeneous data. One of the most effective methods in representing knowledge graphs is to embed symbolic relations and entities into continuous spaces, where relations are approximately linear translation between projected images of entities in the relation space. However, state-of-the-art relation projection methods such as TransR, TransD or TransSparse do not model the correlation between relations, and thus are not scalable to complex knowledge graphs with thousands of relations, both in computational demand and in statistical robustness. To this end we introduce TransF, a novel translation-based method which mitigates the burden of relation projection by explicitly modeling the basis subspaces of projection matrices. As a result, TransF is far more light weight than the existing projection methods, and is robust when facing a high number of relations. Experimental results on the canonical link prediction task show that our proposed model outperforms competing rivals by a large margin and achieves state-of-the-art performance. Especially, TransF improves by 9%/5% in the head/tail entity prediction task for N-to-1/1-to-N relations over the best performing translation-based method.
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