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Many real-world optimization problems contain unknown parameters that must be predicted prior to solving. To train the predictive machine learning (ML) models involved, the commonly adopted approach focuses on maximizing predictive accuracy. However, this approach does not always lead to the minimization of the downstream task loss. Decision-focused learning (DFL) is a recently proposed paradigm whose goal is to train the ML model by directly minimizing the task loss. However, state-of-the-art DFL methods are limited by the assumptions they make about the structure of the optimization problem (e.g., that the problem is linear) and by the fact that can only predict parameters that appear in the objective function. In this work, we address these limitations by instead predicting \textit{distributions} over parameters and adopting score function gradient estimation (SFGE) to compute decision-focused updates to the predictive model, thereby widening the applicability of DFL. Our experiments show that by using SFGE we can: (1) deal with predictions that occur both in the objective function and in the constraints; and (2) effectively tackle two-stage stochastic optimization problems.

In the present paper, we consider that $N$ diffusion processes $X^1,\dots,X^N$ are observed on $[0,T]$, where $T$ is fixed and $N$ grows to infinity. Contrary to most of the recent works, we no longer assume that the processes are independent. The dependency is modeled through correlations between the Brownian motions driving the diffusion processes. A nonparametric estimator of the drift function, which does not use the knowledge of the correlation matrix, is proposed and studied. Its integrated mean squared risk is bounded and an adaptive procedure is proposed. Few theoretical tools to handle this kind of dependency are available, and this makes our results new. Numerical experiments show that the procedure works in practice.

Randomized experiments (REs) are the cornerstone for treatment effect evaluation. However, due to practical considerations, REs may encounter difficulty recruiting sufficient patients. External controls (ECs) can supplement REs to boost estimation efficiency. Yet, there may be incomparability between ECs and concurrent controls (CCs), resulting in misleading treatment effect evaluation. We introduce a novel bias function to measure the difference in the outcome mean functions between ECs and CCs. We show that the ANCOVA model augmented by the bias function for ECs renders a consistent estimator of the average treatment effect, regardless of whether or not the ANCOVA model is correct. To accommodate possibly different structures of the ANCOVA model and the bias function, we propose a double penalty integration estimator (DPIE) with different penalization terms for the two functions. With an appropriate choice of penalty parameters, our DPIE ensures consistency, oracle property, and asymptotic normality even in the presence of model misspecification. DPIE is more efficient than the estimator derived from REs alone, validated through theoretical and experimental results.

In this work we study systems consisting of a group of moving particles. In such systems, often some important parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from observed data. Such parameter estimation problems can often be solved via a Bayesian inference framework. However in many practical problems, only data at the aggregate level is available and as a result the likelihood function is not available, which poses challenge for Bayesian methods. In particular, we consider the situation where the distributions of the particles are observed. We propose a Wasserstein distance based sequential Monte Carlo sampler to solve the problem: the Wasserstein distance is used to measure the similarity between the observed and the simulated particle distributions and the sequential Monte Carlo samplers is used to deal with the sequentially available observations. Two real-world examples are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

Adaptive learning is necessary for non-stationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data and with the lowest possible computational cost for online parameter updating. Existing solutions only partially cover these needs. Here, we propose the first adaptive sparse Gaussian Process (GP) able to address all these issues. We first reformulate a variational sparse GP algorithm to make it adaptive through a forgetting factor. Next, to make the model inference as simple as possible, we propose updating a single inducing point of the sparse GP model together with the remaining model parameters every time a new sample arrives. As a result, the algorithm presents a fast convergence of the inference process, which allows an efficient model update (with a single inference iteration) even in highly non-stationary environments. Experimental results demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed algorithm and its good performance in modeling the predictive posterior in mean and confidence interval estimation compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Membership inference attacks are designed to determine, using black box access to trained models, whether a particular example was used in training or not. Membership inference can be formalized as a hypothesis testing problem. The most effective existing attacks estimate the distribution of some test statistic (usually the model's confidence on the true label) on points that were (and were not) used in training by training many \emph{shadow models} -- i.e. models of the same architecture as the model being attacked, trained on a random subsample of data. While effective, these attacks are extremely computationally expensive, especially when the model under attack is large. We introduce a new class of attacks based on performing quantile regression on the distribution of confidence scores induced by the model under attack on points that are not used in training. We show that our method is competitive with state-of-the-art shadow model attacks, while requiring substantially less compute because our attack requires training only a single model. Moreover, unlike shadow model attacks, our proposed attack does not require any knowledge of the architecture of the model under attack and is therefore truly ``black-box". We show the efficacy of this approach in an extensive series of experiments on various datasets and model architectures.

Recent works have explored the fundamental role of depth estimation in multi-view stereo (MVS) and semantic scene completion (SSC). They generally construct 3D cost volumes to explore geometric correspondence in depth, and estimate such volumes in a single step relying directly on the ground truth approximation. However, such problem cannot be thoroughly handled in one step due to complex empirical distributions, especially in challenging regions like occlusions, reflections, etc. In this paper, we formulate the depth estimation task as a multi-step distribution approximation process, and introduce a new paradigm of modeling the Volumetric Probability Distribution progressively (step-by-step) following a Markov chain with Diffusion models (VPDD). Specifically, to constrain the multi-step generation of volume in VPDD, we construct a meta volume guidance and a confidence-aware contextual guidance as conditional geometry priors to facilitate the distribution approximation. For the sampling process, we further investigate an online filtering strategy to maintain consistency in volume representations for stable training. Experiments demonstrate that our plug-and-play VPDD outperforms the state-of-the-arts for tasks of MVS and SSC, and can also be easily extended to different baselines to get improvement. It is worth mentioning that we are the first camera-based work that surpasses LiDAR-based methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset.

An algorithm is said to be adaptive to a certain parameter (of the problem) if it does not need a priori knowledge of such a parameter but performs competitively to those that know it. This dissertation presents our work on adaptive algorithms in following scenarios: 1. In the stochastic optimization setting, we only receive stochastic gradients and the level of noise in evaluating them greatly affects the convergence rate. Tuning is typically required when without prior knowledge of the noise scale in order to achieve the optimal rate. Considering this, we designed and analyzed noise-adaptive algorithms that can automatically ensure (near)-optimal rates under different noise scales without knowing it. 2. In training deep neural networks, the scales of gradient magnitudes in each coordinate can scatter across a very wide range unless normalization techniques, like BatchNorm, are employed. In such situations, algorithms not addressing this problem of gradient scales can behave very poorly. To mitigate this, we formally established the advantage of scale-free algorithms that adapt to the gradient scales and presented its real benefits in empirical experiments. 3. Traditional analyses in non-convex optimization typically rely on the smoothness assumption. Yet, this condition does not capture the properties of some deep learning objective functions, including the ones involving Long Short-Term Memory networks and Transformers. Instead, they satisfy a much more relaxed condition, with potentially unbounded smoothness. Under this condition, we show that a generalized SignSGD algorithm can theoretically match the best-known convergence rates obtained by SGD with gradient clipping but does not need explicit clipping at all, and it can empirically match the performance of Adam and beat others. Moreover, it can also be made to automatically adapt to the unknown relaxed smoothness.

This work is concerned with numerically recovering multiple parameters simultaneously in the subdiffusion model from one single lateral measurement on a part of the boundary, while in an incompletely known medium. We prove that the boundary measurement corresponding to a fairly general boundary excitation uniquely determines the order of the fractional derivative and the polygonal support of the diffusion coefficient, without knowing either the initial condition or the source. The uniqueness analysis further inspires the development of a robust numerical algorithm for recovering the fractional order and diffusion coefficient. The proposed algorithm combines small-time asymptotic expansion, analytic continuation of the solution and the level set method. We present extensive numerical experiments to illustrate the feasibility of the simultaneous recovery. In addition, we discuss the uniqueness of recovering general diffusion and potential coefficients from one single partial boundary measurement, when the boundary excitation is more specialized.

How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.