Variational Bayes methods are a scalable estimation approach for many complex state space models. However, existing methods exhibit a trade-off between accurate estimation and computational efficiency. This paper proposes a variational approximation that mitigates this trade-off. This approximation is based on importance densities that have been proposed in the context of efficient importance sampling. By directly conditioning on the observed data, the proposed method produces an accurate approximation to the exact posterior distribution. Because the steps required for its calibration are computationally efficient, the approach is faster than existing variational Bayes methods. The proposed method can be applied to any state space model that has a closed-form measurement density function and a state transition distribution that belongs to the exponential family of distributions. We illustrate the method in numerical experiments with stochastic volatility models and a macroeconomic empirical application using a high-dimensional state space model.
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This work addresses fair generative models. Dataset biases have been a major cause of unfairness in deep generative models. Previous work had proposed to augment large, biased datasets with small, unbiased reference datasets. Under this setup, a weakly-supervised approach has been proposed, which achieves state-of-the-art quality and fairness in generated samples. In our work, based on this setup, we propose a simple yet effective approach. Specifically, first, we propose fairTL, a transfer learning approach to learn fair generative models. Under fairTL, we pre-train the generative model with the available large, biased datasets and subsequently adapt the model using the small, unbiased reference dataset. We find that our fairTL can learn expressive sample generation during pre-training, thanks to the large (biased) dataset. This knowledge is then transferred to the target model during adaptation, which also learns to capture the underlying fair distribution of the small reference dataset. Second, we propose fairTL++, where we introduce two additional innovations to improve upon fairTL: (i) multiple feedback and (ii) Linear-Probing followed by Fine-Tuning (LP-FT). Taking one step further, we consider an alternative, challenging setup when only a pre-trained (potentially biased) model is available but the dataset that was used to pre-train the model is inaccessible. We demonstrate that our proposed fairTL and fairTL++ remain very effective under this setup. We note that previous work requires access to the large, biased datasets and is incapable of handling this more challenging setup. Extensive experiments show that fairTL and fairTL++ achieve state-of-the-art in both quality and fairness of generated samples. The code and additional resources can be found at bearwithchris.github.io/fairTL/.
Multivariate Hawkes processes are temporal point processes extensively applied to model event data with dependence on past occurrences and interaction phenomena. In the generalised nonlinear model, positive and negative interactions between the components of the process are allowed, therefore accounting for so-called excitation and inhibition effects. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is often a computationally expensive task, all the more with Bayesian estimation methods. In general, the posterior distribution in the nonlinear Hawkes model is non-conjugate and doubly intractable. Moreover, existing Monte-Carlo Markov Chain methods are often slow and not scalable to high-dimensional processes in practice. Recently, efficient algorithms targeting a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. In this work, we unify existing variational Bayes inference approaches under a general framework, that we theoretically analyse under easily verifiable conditions on the prior, the variational class, and the model. We notably apply our theory to a novel spike-and-slab variational class, that can induce sparsity through the connectivity graph parameter of the multivariate Hawkes model. Then, in the context of the popular sigmoid Hawkes model, we leverage existing data augmentation technique and design adaptive and sparsity-inducing mean-field variational methods. In particular, we propose a two-step algorithm based on a thresholding heuristic to select the graph parameter. Through an extensive set of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that our approach enjoys several benefits: it is computationally efficient, can reduce the dimensionality of the problem by selecting the graph parameter, and is able to adapt to the smoothness of the underlying parameter.
A key barrier to using reinforcement learning (RL) in many real-world applications is the requirement of a large number of system interactions to learn a good control policy. Off-policy and Offline RL methods have been proposed to reduce the number of interactions with the physical environment by learning control policies from historical data. However, their performances suffer from the lack of exploration and the distributional shifts in trajectories once controllers are updated. Moreover, most RL methods require that all states are directly observed, which is difficult to be attained in many settings. To overcome these challenges, we propose a trajectory generation algorithm, which adaptively generates new trajectories as if the system is being operated and explored under the updated control policies. Motivated by the fundamental lemma for linear systems, assuming sufficient excitation, we generate trajectories from linear combinations of historical trajectories. For linear feedback control, we prove that the algorithm generates trajectories with the exact distribution as if they are sampled from the real system using the updated control policy. In particular, the algorithm extends to systems where the states are not directly observed. Experiments show that the proposed method significantly reduces the number of sampled data needed for RL algorithms.
Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.
In Euclidean spaces, the empirical mean vector as an estimator of the population mean is known to have polynomial concentration unless a strong tail assumption is imposed on the underlying probability measure. The idea of median-of-means tournament has been considered as a way of overcoming the sub-optimality of the empirical mean vector. In this paper, to address the sub-optimal performance of the empirical mean in a more general setting, we consider general Polish spaces with a general metric, which are allowed to be non-compact and of infinite-dimension. We discuss the estimation of the associated population Frechet mean, and for this we extend the existing notion of median-of-means to this general setting. We devise several new notions and inequalities associated with the geometry of the underlying metric, and using them we study the concentration properties of the extended notions of median-of-means as the estimators of the population Frechet mean. We show that the new estimators achieve exponential concentration under only a second moment condition on the underlying distribution, while the empirical Frechet mean has polynomial concentration. We focus our study on spaces with non-positive Alexandrov curvature since they afford slower rates of convergence than spaces with positive curvature. We note that this is the first work that derives non-asymptotic concentration inequalities for extended notions of the median-of-means in non-vector spaces with a general metric.
For basic machine learning problems, expected error is used to evaluate model performance. Since the distribution of data is usually unknown, we can make simple hypothesis that the data are sampled independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and the mean value of loss function is used as the empirical risk by Law of Large Numbers (LLN). This is known as the Monte Carlo method. However, when LLN is not applicable, such as imbalanced data problems, empirical risk will cause overfitting and might decrease robustness and generalization ability. Inspired by the framework of nonlinear expectation theory, we substitute the mean value of loss function with the maximum value of subgroup mean loss. We call it nonlinear Monte Carlo method. In order to use numerical method of optimization, we linearize and smooth the functional of maximum empirical risk and get the descent direction via quadratic programming. With the proposed method, we achieve better performance than SOTA backbone models with less training steps, and more robustness for basic regression and imbalanced classification tasks.
Reinforcement learning (RL) problems over general state and action spaces are notoriously challenging. In contrast to the tableau setting, one can not enumerate all the states and then iteratively update the policies for each state. This prevents the application of many well-studied RL methods especially those with provable convergence guarantees. In this paper, we first present a substantial generalization of the recently developed policy mirror descent method to deal with general state and action spaces. We introduce new approaches to incorporate function approximation into this method, so that we do not need to use explicit policy parameterization at all. Moreover, we present a novel policy dual averaging method for which possibly simpler function approximation techniques can be applied. We establish linear convergence rate to global optimality or sublinear convergence to stationarity for these methods applied to solve different classes of RL problems under exact policy evaluation. We then define proper notions of the approximation errors for policy evaluation and investigate their impact on the convergence of these methods applied to general-state RL problems with either finite-action or continuous-action spaces. To the best of our knowledge, the development of these algorithmic frameworks as well as their convergence analysis appear to be new in the literature.
Recent advances in maximizing mutual information (MI) between the source and target have demonstrated its effectiveness in text generation. However, previous works paid little attention to modeling the backward network of MI (i.e., dependency from the target to the source), which is crucial to the tightness of the variational information maximization lower bound. In this paper, we propose Adversarial Mutual Information (AMI): a text generation framework which is formed as a novel saddle point (min-max) optimization aiming to identify joint interactions between the source and target. Within this framework, the forward and backward networks are able to iteratively promote or demote each other's generated instances by comparing the real and synthetic data distributions. We also develop a latent noise sampling strategy that leverages random variations at the high-level semantic space to enhance the long term dependency in the generation process. Extensive experiments based on different text generation tasks demonstrate that the proposed AMI framework can significantly outperform several strong baselines, and we also show that AMI has potential to lead to a tighter lower bound of maximum mutual information for the variational information maximization problem.
Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.
Inferring missing links in knowledge graphs (KG) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community. In this paper, we tackle a practical query answering task involving predicting the relation of a given entity pair. We frame this prediction problem as an inference problem in a probabilistic graphical model and aim at resolving it from a variational inference perspective. In order to model the relation between the query entity pair, we assume that there exists an underlying latent variable (paths connecting two nodes) in the KG, which carries the equivalent semantics of their relations. However, due to the intractability of connections in large KGs, we propose to use variation inference to maximize the evidence lower bound. More specifically, our framework (\textsc{Diva}) is composed of three modules, i.e. a posterior approximator, a prior (path finder), and a likelihood (path reasoner). By using variational inference, we are able to incorporate them closely into a unified architecture and jointly optimize them to perform KG reasoning. With active interactions among these sub-modules, \textsc{Diva} is better at handling noise and coping with more complex reasoning scenarios. In order to evaluate our method, we conduct the experiment of the link prediction task on multiple datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performances on both datasets.
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