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Machine Learning (ML) in low-data settings remains an underappreciated yet crucial problem. Hence, data augmentation methods to increase the sample size of datasets needed for ML are key to unlocking the transformative potential of ML in data-deprived regions and domains. Unfortunately, the limited training set constrains traditional tabular synthetic data generators in their ability to generate a large and diverse augmented dataset needed for ML tasks. To address this challenge, we introduce CLLM, which leverages the prior knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) for data augmentation in the low-data regime. However, not all the data generated by LLMs will improve downstream utility, as for any generative model. Consequently, we introduce a principled curation mechanism, leveraging learning dynamics, coupled with confidence and uncertainty metrics, to obtain a high-quality dataset. Empirically, on multiple real-world datasets, we demonstrate the superior performance of CLLM in the low-data regime compared to conventional generators. Additionally, we provide insights into the LLM generation and curation mechanism, shedding light on the features that enable them to output high-quality augmented datasets.

Understanding the emergence of data breaches is crucial for cyber insurance. However, analyses of data breach frequency trends in the current literature lead to contradictory conclusions. We put forward that those discrepancies may be (at least partially) due to inconsistent data collection standards, as well as reporting patterns, over time and space. We set out to carefully control both. In this paper, we conduct a joint analysis of state Attorneys General's publications on data breaches across eight states (namely, California, Delaware, Indiana, Maine, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington), all of which are subject to established data collection standards-namely, state data breach (mandatory) notification laws. Thanks to our explicit recognition of these notification laws, we are capable of modelling frequency of breaches in a consistent and comparable way over time. Hence, we are able to isolate and capture the complexities of reporting patterns, adequately estimate IBNRs, and yield a highly reliable assessment of historical frequency trends in data breaches. Our analysis also provides a comprehensive comparison of data breach frequency across the eight U.S. states, extending knowledge on state-specific differences in cyber risk, which has not been extensively discussed in the current literature. Furthermore, we uncover novel features not previously discussed in the literature, such as differences in cyber risk frequency trends between large and small data breaches. Overall, we find that the reporting delays are lengthening. We also elicit commonalities and heterogeneities in reporting patterns across states, severity levels, and time periods. After adequately estimating IBNRs, we find that frequency is relatively stable before 2020 and increasing after 2020. This is consistent across states. Implications of our findings for cyber insurance are discussed.

We derive the Alternating-Direction Implicit (ADI) method based on a commuting operator split and apply the results to the continuous time algebraic Lyapunov equation with low-rank constant term and approximate solution. Previously, it has been mandatory to start the low-rank ADI (LR-ADI) with an all-zero initial value. Our approach retains the known efficient iteration schemes of low-rank increments and residual to arbitrary low-rank initial values for the LR-ADI method. We further generalize some of the known properties of the LR-ADI for Lyapunov equations to larger classes of algorithms or problems. We investigate the performance of arbitrary initial values using two outer iterations in which LR-ADI is typically called. First, we solve an algebraic Riccati equation with the Newton method. Second, we solve a differential Riccati equation with a first-order Rosenbrock method. Numerical experiments confirm that the proposed new initial value of the alternating-directions implicit (ADI) can lead to a significant reduction in the total number of ADI steps, while also showing a 17% and 8x speed-up over the zero initial value for the two equation types, respectively.

We investigated the capability of the GPT-3.5 large language model (LLM) to operationalize natural language descriptions of cooperative, competitive, altruistic, and self-interested behavior in two social dilemmas: the repeated Prisoners Dilemma and the one-shot Dictator Game. Using a within-subject experimental design, we used a prompt to describe the task environment using a similar protocol to that used in experimental psychology studies with human subjects. We tested our research question by manipulating the part of our prompt which was used to create a simulated persona with different cooperative and competitive stances. We then assessed the resulting simulacras' level of cooperation in each social dilemma, taking into account the effect of different partner conditions for the repeated game. Our results provide evidence that LLMs can, to some extent, translate natural language descriptions of different cooperative stances into corresponding descriptions of appropriate task behaviour, particularly in the one-shot game. There is some evidence of behaviour resembling conditional reciprocity for the cooperative simulacra in the repeated game, and for the later version of the model there is evidence of altruistic behaviour. Our study has potential implications for using LLM chatbots in task environments that involve cooperation, e.g. using chatbots as mediators and facilitators in public-goods negotiations.

Weakly Supervised Semantic Segmentation (WSSS) employs weak supervision, such as image-level labels, to train the segmentation model. Despite the impressive achievement in recent WSSS methods, we identify that introducing weak labels with high mean Intersection of Union (mIoU) does not guarantee high segmentation performance. Existing studies have emphasized the importance of prioritizing precision and reducing noise to improve overall performance. In the same vein, we propose ORANDNet, an advanced ensemble approach tailored for WSSS. ORANDNet combines Class Activation Maps (CAMs) from two different classifiers to increase the precision of pseudo-masks (PMs). To further mitigate small noise in the PMs, we incorporate curriculum learning. This involves training the segmentation model initially with pairs of smaller-sized images and corresponding PMs, gradually transitioning to the original-sized pairs. By combining the original CAMs of ResNet-50 and ViT, we significantly improve the segmentation performance over the single-best model and the naive ensemble model, respectively. We further extend our ensemble method to CAMs from AMN (ResNet-like) and MCTformer (ViT-like) models, achieving performance benefits in advanced WSSS models. It highlights the potential of our ORANDNet as a final add-on module for WSSS models.

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results and their predictive performance is analyzed showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a powerful technique employed for non-invasive in vivo visualization of internal structures. Sparsity is often deployed to accelerate the signal acquisition or overcome the presence of motion artifacts, improving the quality of image reconstruction. Image reconstruction algorithms use TV-regularized LASSO (Total Variation-regularized LASSO) to retrieve the missing information of undersampled signals, by cleaning the data of noise and while optimizing sparsity. A tuning parameter moderates the balance between these two aspects; its choice affecting the quality of the reconstructions. Currently, there is a lack of general deterministic techniques to choose these parameters, which are oftentimes manually selected and thus hinder the reliability of the reconstructions. Here, we present ALMA (Algorithm for Lagrange Multipliers Approximation), an iterative mathematics-inspired technique that computes tuning parameters for generalized LASSO problems during MRI reconstruction. We analyze quantitatively the performance of these parameters for imaging reconstructions via TV-LASSO in an MRI context on phantoms. Although our study concentrates on TV-LASSO, the techniques developed here hold significant promise for a wide array of applications. ALMA is not only adaptable to more generalized LASSO problems but is also robust to accommodate other forms of regularization beyond total variation. Moreover, it extends effectively to handle non-Cartesian sampling trajectories, broadening its utility in complex data reconstruction scenarios. More generally, ALMA provides a powerful tool for numerically solving constrained optimization problems across various disciplines, offering a versatile and impactful solution for advanced computational challenges.

Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction in the analysis of multivariate data. This is achieved through decomposition of a p x p covariance matrix into the sum of two components. Through a latent factor representation, they can be interpreted as a diagonal matrix of idiosyncratic variances and a shared variation matrix, that is, the product of a p x k factor loadings matrix and its transpose. If k << p, this defines a parsimonious factorisation of the covariance matrix. Historically, little attention has been paid to incorporating prior information in Bayesian analyses using factor models where, at best, the prior for the factor loadings is order invariant. In this work, a class of structured priors is developed that can encode ideas of dependence structure about the shared variation matrix. The construction allows data-informed shrinkage towards sensible parametric structures while also facilitating inference over the number of factors. Using an unconstrained reparameterisation of stationary vector autoregressions, the methodology is extended to stationary dynamic factor models. For computational inference, parameter-expanded Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers are proposed, including an efficient adaptive Gibbs sampler. Two substantive applications showcase the scope of the methodology and its inferential benefits.

Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.