The principle of maximum entropy, as introduced by Jaynes in information theory, has contributed to advancements in various domains such as Statistical Mechanics, Machine Learning, and Ecology. Its resultant solutions have served as a catalyst, facilitating researchers in mapping their empirical observations to the acquisition of unbiased models, whilst deepening the understanding of complex systems and phenomena. However, when we consider situations in which the model elements are not directly observable, such as when noise or ocular occlusion is present, possibilities arise for which standard maximum entropy approaches may fail, as they are unable to match feature constraints. Here we show the Principle of Uncertain Maximum Entropy as a method that both encodes all available information in spite of arbitrarily noisy observations while surpassing the accuracy of some ad-hoc methods. Additionally, we utilize the output of a black-box machine learning model as input into an uncertain maximum entropy model, resulting in a novel approach for scenarios where the observation function is unavailable. Previous remedies either relaxed feature constraints when accounting for observation error, given well-characterized errors such as zero-mean Gaussian, or chose to simply select the most likely model element given an observation. We anticipate our principle finding broad applications in diverse fields due to generalizing the traditional maximum entropy method with the ability to utilize uncertain observations.
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Nowadays, numerical models are widely used in most of engineering fields to simulate the behaviour of complex systems, such as for example power plants or wind turbine in the energy sector. Those models are nevertheless affected by uncertainty of different nature (numerical, epistemic) which can affect the reliability of their predictions. We develop here a new method for quantifying conditional parameter uncertainty within a chain of two numerical models in the context of multiphysics simulation. More precisely, we aim to calibrate the parameters $\theta$ of the second model of the chain conditionally on the value of parameters $\lambda$ of the first model, while assuming the probability distribution of $\lambda$ is known. This conditional calibration is carried out from the available experimental data of the second model. In doing so, we aim to quantify as well as possible the impact of the uncertainty of $\lambda$ on the uncertainty of $\theta$. To perform this conditional calibration, we set out a nonparametric Bayesian formalism to estimate the functional dependence between $\theta$ and $\lambda$, denoted $\theta(\lambda)$. First, each component of $\theta(\lambda)$ is assumed to be the realization of a Gaussian process prior. Then, if the second model is written as a linear function of $\theta(\lambda)$, the Bayesian machinery allows us to compute analytically the posterior predictive distribution of $\theta(\lambda)$ for any set of realizations $\lambda$. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated on several analytical examples.
In this work we connect two notions: That of the nonparametric mode of a probability measure, defined by asymptotic small ball probabilities, and that of the Onsager-Machlup functional, a generalized density also defined via asymptotic small ball probabilities. We show that in a separable Hilbert space setting and under mild conditions on the likelihood, modes of a Bayesian posterior distribution based upon a Gaussian prior exist and agree with the minimizers of its Onsager-Machlup functional and thus also with weak posterior modes. We apply this result to inverse problems and derive conditions on the forward mapping under which this variational characterization of posterior modes holds. Our results show rigorously that in the limit case of infinite-dimensional data corrupted by additive Gaussian or Laplacian noise, nonparametric maximum a posteriori estimation is equivalent to Tikhonov-Phillips regularization. In comparison with the work of Dashti, Law, Stuart, and Voss (2013), the assumptions on the likelihood are relaxed so that they cover in particular the important case of white Gaussian process noise. We illustrate our results by applying them to a severely ill-posed linear problem with Laplacian noise, where we express the maximum a posteriori estimator analytically and study its rate of convergence in the small noise limit.
Power analysis poses a significant threat to the security of cryptographic algorithms, as it can be leveraged to recover secret keys. While various software-based countermeasures exist to mitigate this non-invasive attack, they often involve a trade-off between time and space constraints. Techniques such as masking and shuffling, while effective, can noticeably impact execution speed and rely heavily on run-time random number generators. On the contrary, internally encoded implementations of block ciphers offer an alternative approach that does not rely on run-time random sources, but it comes with the drawback of requiring substantial memory space to accommodate lookup tables. Internal encoding, commonly employed in white-box cryptography, suffers from a security limitation as it does not effectively protect the secret key against statistical analysis. To overcome this weakness, this paper introduces a secure internal encoding method for an AES implementation. By addressing the root cause of vulnerabilities found in previous encoding methods, we propose a balanced encoding technique that aims to minimize the problematic correlation with key-dependent intermediate values. We analyze the potential weaknesses associated with the balanced encoding and present a method that utilizes complementary sets of lookup tables. In this approach, the size of the lookup tables is approximately 512KB, and the number of table lookups is 1,024. This is comparable to the table size of non-protected white-box AES-128 implementations, while requiring only half the number of lookups. By adopting this method, our aim is to introduce a non-masking technique that mitigates the vulnerability to statistical analysis present in current internally-encoded AES implementations.
We present an end-to-end procedure for embodied exploration based on two biologically inspired computations: predictive coding and uncertainty minimization. The procedure can be applied to any exploration setting in a task-independent and intrinsically driven manner. We first demonstrate our approach in a maze navigation task and show that our model is capable of discovering the underlying transition distribution and reconstructing the spatial features of the environment. Second, we apply our model to the more complex task of active vision, where an agent must actively sample its visual environment to gather information. We show that our model is able to build unsupervised representations that allow it to actively sample and efficiently categorize sensory scenes. We further show that using these representations as input for downstream classification leads to superior data efficiency and learning speed compared to other baselines, while also maintaining lower parameter complexity. Finally, the modularity of our model allows us to analyze its internal mechanisms and to draw insight into the interactions between perception and action during exploratory behavior.
In device-independent (DI) quantum protocols, the security statements are oblivious to the characterization of the quantum apparatus - they are based solely on the classical interaction with the quantum devices as well as some well-defined assumptions. The most commonly known setup is the so-called non-local one, in which two devices that cannot communicate between themselves present a violation of a Bell inequality. In recent years, a new variant of DI protocols, that requires only a single device, arose. In this novel research avenue, the no-communication assumption is replaced with a computational assumption, namely, that the device cannot solve certain post-quantum cryptographic tasks. The protocols for, e.g., randomness certification, in this setting that have been analyzed in the literature used ad hoc proof techniques and the strength of the achieved results is hard to judge and compare due to their complexity. Here, we build on ideas coming from the study of non-local DI protocols and develop a modular proof technique for the single-device computational setting. We present a flexible framework for proving the security of such protocols by utilizing a combination of tools from quantum information theory, such as the entropic uncertainty relation and the entropy accumulation theorem. This leads to an insightful and simple proof of security, as well as to explicit quantitative bounds. Our work acts as the basis for the analysis of future protocols for DI randomness generation, expansion, amplification and key distribution based on post-quantum cryptographic assumptions.
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning algorithms rely crucially on the assumption that the positions of the missing observations \emph{within the observation sequence} are known. In the natural sciences, where this assumption is often violated, special variants of HMM, commonly known as Silent-state HMMs (SHMMs), are used. Despite their widespread use, these algorithms strongly rely on specific structural assumptions of the underlying chain, such as acyclicity, thus limiting the applicability of these methods. Moreover, even in the acyclic case, it has been shown that these methods can lead to poor reconstruction. In this paper we consider the general problem of learning an HMM from data with unknown missing observation locations. We provide reconstruction algorithms that do not require any assumptions about the structure of the underlying chain, and can also be used with limited prior knowledge, unlike SHMM. We evaluate and compare the algorithms in a variety of scenarios, measuring their reconstruction precision, and robustness under model miss-specification. Notably, we show that under proper specifications one can reconstruct the process dynamics as well as if the missing observations positions were known.
We derive general bounds on the probability that the empirical first-passage time $\overline{\tau}_n\equiv \sum_{i=1}^n\tau_i/n$ of a reversible ergodic Markov process inferred from a sample of $n$ independent realizations deviates from the true mean first-passage time by more than any given amount in either direction. We construct non-asymptotic confidence intervals that hold in the elusive small-sample regime and thus fill the gap between asymptotic methods and the Bayesian approach that is known to be sensitive to prior belief and tends to underestimate uncertainty in the small-sample setting. We prove sharp bounds on extreme first-passage times that control uncertainty even in cases where the mean alone does not sufficiently characterize the statistics. Our concentration-of-measure-based results allow for model-free error control and reliable error estimation in kinetic inference, and are thus important for the analysis of experimental and simulation data in the presence of limited sampling.
In order to solve tasks like uncertainty quantification or hypothesis tests in Bayesian imaging inverse problems, we often have to draw samples from the arising posterior distribution. For the usually log-concave but high-dimensional posteriors, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on time discretizations of Langevin diffusion are a popular tool. If the potential defining the distribution is non-smooth, these discretizations are usually of an implicit form leading to Langevin sampling algorithms that require the evaluation of proximal operators. For some of the potentials relevant in imaging problems this is only possible approximately using an iterative scheme. We investigate the behaviour of a proximal Langevin algorithm under the presence of errors in the evaluation of proximal mappings. We generalize existing non-asymptotic and asymptotic convergence results of the exact algorithm to our inexact setting and quantify the bias between the target and the algorithm's stationary distribution due to the errors. We show that the additional bias stays bounded for bounded errors and converges to zero for decaying errors in a strongly convex setting. We apply the inexact algorithm to sample numerically from the posterior of typical imaging inverse problems in which we can only approximate the proximal operator by an iterative scheme and validate our theoretical convergence results.
A mainstream type of current self-supervised learning methods pursues a general-purpose representation that can be well transferred to downstream tasks, typically by optimizing on a given pretext task such as instance discrimination. In this work, we argue that existing pretext tasks inevitably introduce biases into the learned representation, which in turn leads to biased transfer performance on various downstream tasks. To cope with this issue, we propose Maximum Entropy Coding (MEC), a more principled objective that explicitly optimizes on the structure of the representation, so that the learned representation is less biased and thus generalizes better to unseen downstream tasks. Inspired by the principle of maximum entropy in information theory, we hypothesize that a generalizable representation should be the one that admits the maximum entropy among all plausible representations. To make the objective end-to-end trainable, we propose to leverage the minimal coding length in lossy data coding as a computationally tractable surrogate for the entropy, and further derive a scalable reformulation of the objective that allows fast computation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MEC learns a more generalizable representation than previous methods based on specific pretext tasks. It achieves state-of-the-art performance consistently on various downstream tasks, including not only ImageNet linear probe, but also semi-supervised classification, object detection, instance segmentation, and object tracking. Interestingly, we show that existing batch-wise and feature-wise self-supervised objectives could be seen equivalent to low-order approximations of MEC. Code and pre-trained models are available at //github.com/xinliu20/MEC.
Recently, contrastive learning (CL) has emerged as a successful method for unsupervised graph representation learning. Most graph CL methods first perform stochastic augmentation on the input graph to obtain two graph views and maximize the agreement of representations in the two views. Despite the prosperous development of graph CL methods, the design of graph augmentation schemes -- a crucial component in CL -- remains rarely explored. We argue that the data augmentation schemes should preserve intrinsic structures and attributes of graphs, which will force the model to learn representations that are insensitive to perturbation on unimportant nodes and edges. However, most existing methods adopt uniform data augmentation schemes, like uniformly dropping edges and uniformly shuffling features, leading to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we propose a novel graph contrastive representation learning method with adaptive augmentation that incorporates various priors for topological and semantic aspects of the graph. Specifically, on the topology level, we design augmentation schemes based on node centrality measures to highlight important connective structures. On the node attribute level, we corrupt node features by adding more noise to unimportant node features, to enforce the model to recognize underlying semantic information. We perform extensive experiments of node classification on a variety of real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines and even surpasses some supervised counterparts, which validates the effectiveness of the proposed contrastive framework with adaptive augmentation.
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