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A fundamental challenge in interactive learning and decision making, ranging from bandit problems to reinforcement learning, is to provide sample-efficient, adaptive learning algorithms that achieve near-optimal regret. This question is analogous to the classical problem of optimal (supervised) statistical learning, where there are well-known complexity measures (e.g., VC dimension and Rademacher complexity) that govern the statistical complexity of learning. However, characterizing the statistical complexity of interactive learning is substantially more challenging due to the adaptive nature of the problem. The main result of this work provides a complexity measure, the Decision-Estimation Coefficient, that is proven to be both necessary and sufficient for sample-efficient interactive learning. In particular, we provide: 1. a lower bound on the optimal regret for any interactive decision making problem, establishing the Decision-Estimation Coefficient as a fundamental limit. 2. a unified algorithm design principle, Estimation-to-Decisions (E2D), which transforms any algorithm for supervised estimation into an online algorithm for decision making. E2D attains a regret bound matching our lower bound, thereby achieving optimal sample-efficient learning as characterized by the Decision-Estimation Coefficient. Taken together, these results constitute a theory of learnability for interactive decision making. When applied to reinforcement learning settings, the Decision-Estimation Coefficient recovers essentially all existing hardness results and lower bounds. More broadly, the approach can be viewed as a decision-theoretic analogue of the classical Le Cam theory of statistical estimation; it also unifies a number of existing approaches -- both Bayesian and frequentist.

When are inferences (whether Direct-Likelihood, Bayesian, or Frequentist) obtained from partial data valid? This paper answers this question by offering a new theory about inference with missing data. It proves that as the sample size increases and the extent of missingness decreases, the mean-loglikelihood function generated by partial data and that ignores the missingness mechanism will almost surely converge uniformly to that which would have been generated by complete data; and if the data are Missing at Random (or "partially missing at random"), this convergence depends only on sample size. Thus, inferences from partial data, such as posterior modes, uncertainty estimates, confidence intervals, likelihood ratios, and indeed, all quantities or features derived from the partial-data loglikelihood function, will be consistently estimated. They will approximate their complete-data analogues. This adds to previous research which has only proved the consistency of the posterior mode. Practical implications of this result are discussed, and the theory is verified using a previous study of International Human Rights Law.

Mendelian randomization is a widely-used method to estimate the unconfounded effect of an exposure on an outcome by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. Mendelian randomization analyses which use variants from a single genetic region (cis-MR) have gained popularity for being an economical way to provide supporting evidence for drug target validation. This paper proposes methods for cis-MR inference which use the explanatory power of many correlated variants to make valid inferences even in situations where those variants only have weak effects on the exposure. In particular, we exploit the highly structured nature of genetic correlations in single gene regions to reduce the dimension of genetic variants using factor analysis. These genetic factors are then used as instrumental variables to construct tests for the causal effect of interest. Since these factors may often be weakly associated with the exposure, size distortions of standard t-tests can be severe. Therefore, we consider two approaches based on conditional testing. First, we extend results of commonly-used identification-robust tests to account for the use of estimated factors as instruments. Secondly, we propose a test which appropriately adjusts for first-stage screening of genetic factors based on their relevance. Our empirical results provide genetic evidence to validate cholesterol-lowering drug targets aimed at preventing coronary heart disease.

Inferential models (IMs) are data-dependent, probability-like structures designed to quantify uncertainty about unknowns. As the name suggests, the focus has been on uncertainty quantification for inference, and on establishing a validity property that ensures the IM is reliable in a specific sense. The present paper develops an IM framework for decision problems and, in particular, investigates the decision-theoretic implications of the aforementioned validity property. I show that a valid IM's assessment of an action's quality, defined by a Choquet integral, will not be too optimistic compared to that of an oracle. This ensures that a valid IM tends not to favor actions that the oracle doesn't also favor, hence a valid IM is reliable for decision-making too. In a certain special class of structured statistical models, further connections can be made between the valid IM's favored actions and those favored by other more familiar frameworks, from which certain optimality conclusions can be drawn. An important step in these decision-theoretic developments is a characterization of the valid IM's credal set in terms of confidence distributions, which may be of independent interest.

The design of methods for inference from time sequences has traditionally relied on statistical models that describe the relation between a latent desired sequence and the observed one. A broad family of model-based algorithms have been derived to carry out inference at controllable complexity using recursive computations over the factor graph representing the underlying distribution. An alternative model-agnostic approach utilizes machine learning (ML) methods. Here we propose a framework that combines model-based algorithms and data-driven ML tools for stationary time sequences. In the proposed approach, neural networks are developed to separately learn specific components of a factor graph describing the distribution of the time sequence, rather than the complete inference task. By exploiting stationary properties of this distribution, the resulting approach can be applied to sequences of varying temporal duration. Learned factor graph can be realized using compact neural networks that are trainable using small training sets, or alternatively, be used to improve upon existing deep inference systems. We present an inference algorithm based on learned stationary factor graphs, which learns to implement the sum-product scheme from labeled data, and can be applied to sequences of different lengths. Our experimental results demonstrate the ability of the proposed learned factor graphs to learn to carry out accurate inference from small training sets for sleep stage detection using the Sleep-EDF dataset, as well as for symbol detection in digital communications with unknown channels.

As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.

Topic models are one of the most frequently used models in machine learning due to its high interpretability and modular structure. However extending the model to include supervisory signal, incorporate pre-trained word embedding vectors and add nonlinear output function to the model is not an easy task because one has to resort to highly intricate approximate inference procedure. In this paper, we show that topic models could be viewed as performing a neighborhood aggregation algorithm where the messages are passed through a network defined over words. Under the network view of topic models, nodes corresponds to words in a document and edges correspond to either a relationship describing co-occurring words in a document or a relationship describing same word in the corpus. The network view allows us to extend the model to include supervisory signals, incorporate pre-trained word embedding vectors and add nonlinear output function to the model in a simple manner. Moreover, we describe a simple way to train the model that is well suited in a semi-supervised setting where we only have supervisory signals for some portion of the corpus and the goal is to improve prediction performance in the held-out data. Through careful experiments we show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation implementation in both held-out document classification tasks and topic coherence.