Securing dynamic networks against adversarial actions is challenging because of the need to anticipate and counter strategic disruptions by adversarial entities within complex network structures. Traditional game-theoretic models, while insightful, often fail to model the unpredictability and constraints of real-world threat assessment scenarios. We refine sabotage games to reflect the realistic limitations of the saboteur and the network operator. By transforming sabotage games into reachability problems, our approach allows applying existing computational solutions to model realistic restrictions on attackers and defenders within the game. Modifying sabotage games into dynamic network security problems successfully captures the nuanced interplay of strategy and uncertainty in dynamic network security. Theoretically, we extend sabotage games to model network security contexts and thoroughly explore if the additional restrictions raise their computational complexity, often the bottleneck of game theory in practical contexts. Practically, this research sets the stage for actionable insights for developing robust defense mechanisms by understanding what risks to mitigate in dynamically changing networks under threat.
Bayesian networks are widely utilised in various fields, offering elegant representations of factorisations and causal relationships. We use surjective functions to reduce the dimensionality of the Bayesian networks by combining states and study the preservation of their factorisation structure. We introduce and define corresponding notions, analyse their properties, and provide examples of highly symmetric special cases, enhancing the understanding of the fundamental properties of such reductions for Bayesian networks. We also discuss the connection between this and reductions of homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains.
Understanding the mechanisms through which neural networks extract statistics from input-label pairs is one of the most important unsolved problems in supervised learning. Prior works have identified that the gram matrices of the weights in trained neural networks of general architectures are proportional to the average gradient outer product of the model, in a statement known as the Neural Feature Ansatz (NFA). However, the reason these quantities become correlated during training is poorly understood. In this work, we explain the emergence of this correlation. We identify that the NFA is equivalent to alignment between the left singular structure of the weight matrices and a significant component of the empirical neural tangent kernels associated with those weights. We establish that the NFA introduced in prior works is driven by a centered NFA that isolates this alignment. We show that the speed of NFA development can be predicted analytically at early training times in terms of simple statistics of the inputs and labels. Finally, we introduce a simple intervention to increase NFA correlation at any given layer, which dramatically improves the quality of features learned.
We present a new decoder for the surface code, which combines the accuracy of the tensor-network decoders with the efficiency and parallelism of the belief-propagation algorithm. Our main idea is to replace the expensive tensor-network contraction step in the tensor-network decoders with the blockBP algorithm - a recent approximate contraction algorithm, based on belief propagation. Our decoder is therefore a belief-propagation decoder that works in the degenerate maximal likelihood decoding framework. Unlike conventional tensor-network decoders, our algorithm can run efficiently in parallel, and may therefore be suitable for real-time decoding. We numerically test our decoder and show that for a large range of lattice sizes and noise levels it delivers a logical error probability that outperforms the Minimal-Weight-Perfect-Matching (MWPM) decoder, sometimes by more than an order of magnitude.
Driver intention recognition studies increasingly rely on deep neural networks. Deep neural networks have achieved top performance for many different tasks, but it is not a common practice to explicitly analyse the complexity and performance of the network's architecture. Therefore, this paper applies neural architecture search to investigate the effects of the deep neural network architecture on a real-world safety critical application with limited computational capabilities. We explore a pre-defined search space for three deep neural network layer types that are capable to handle sequential data (a long-short term memory, temporal convolution, and a time-series transformer layer), and the influence of different data fusion strategies on the driver intention recognition performance. A set of eight search strategies are evaluated for two driver intention recognition datasets. For the two datasets, we observed that there is no search strategy clearly sampling better deep neural network architectures. However, performing an architecture search does improve the model performance compared to the original manually designed networks. Furthermore, we observe no relation between increased model complexity and higher driver intention recognition performance. The result indicate that multiple architectures yield similar performance, regardless of the deep neural network layer type or fusion strategy.
Leveraging large language models (LLMs), autonomous agents have significantly improved, gaining the ability to handle a variety of tasks. In open-ended settings, optimizing collaboration for efficiency and effectiveness demands flexible adjustments. Despite this, current research mainly emphasizes fixed, task-oriented workflows and overlooks agent-centric organizational structures. Drawing inspiration from human organizational behavior, we introduce a self-organizing agent system (S-Agents) with a "tree of agents" structure for dynamic workflow, an "hourglass agent architecture" for balancing information priorities, and a "non-obstructive collaboration" method to allow asynchronous task execution among agents. This structure can autonomously coordinate a group of agents, efficiently addressing the challenges of an open and dynamic environment without human intervention. Our experiments demonstrate that S-Agents proficiently execute collaborative building tasks and resource collection in the Minecraft environment, validating their effectiveness.
There are two strategic and longstanding questions about cyber risk that organizations largely have been unable to answer: What is an organization's estimated risk exposure and how does its security compare with peers? Answering both requires industry-wide data on security posture, incidents, and losses that, until recently, have been too sensitive for organizations to share. Now, privacy enhancing technologies (PETs) such as cryptographic computing can enable the secure computation of aggregate cyber risk metrics from a peer group of organizations while leaving sensitive input data undisclosed. As these new aggregate data become available, analysts need ways to integrate them into cyber risk models that can produce more reliable risk assessments and allow comparison to a peer group. This paper proposes a new framework for benchmarking cyber posture against peers and estimating cyber risk within specific economic sectors using the new variables emerging from secure computations. We introduce a new top-line variable called the Defense Gap Index representing the weighted security gap between an organization and its peers that can be used to forecast an organization's own security risk based on historical industry data. We apply this approach in a specific sector using data collected from 25 large firms, in partnership with an industry ISAO, to build an industry risk model and provide tools back to participants to estimate their own risk exposure and privately compare their security posture with their peers.
The goal of anomaly detection is to identify observations that are generated by a distribution that differs from the reference distribution that qualifies normal behavior. When examining a time series, the reference distribution may evolve over time. The anomaly detector must therefore be able to adapt to such changes. In the online context, it is particularly difficult to adapt to abrupt and unpredictable changes. Our solution to this problem is based on the detection of breakpoints in order to adapt in real time to the new reference behavior of the series and to increase the accuracy of the anomaly detection. This solution also provides a control of the False Discovery Rate by extending methods developed for stationary series.
Speech intelligibility can be degraded due to multiple factors, such as noisy environments, technical difficulties or biological conditions. This work is focused on the development of an automatic non-intrusive system for predicting the speech intelligibility level in this latter case. The main contribution of our research on this topic is the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with log-mel spectrograms as input features for this purpose. In addition, this LSTM-based system is further enhanced by the incorporation of a simple attention mechanism that is able to determine the more relevant frames to this task. The proposed models are evaluated with the UA-Speech database that contains dysarthric speech with different degrees of severity. Results show that the attention LSTM architecture outperforms both, a reference Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based system with hand-crafted features and a LSTM-based system with Mean-Pooling.
Games and simulators can be a valuable platform to execute complex multi-agent, multiplayer, imperfect information scenarios with significant parallels to military applications: multiple participants manage resources and make decisions that command assets to secure specific areas of a map or neutralize opposing forces. These characteristics have attracted the artificial intelligence (AI) community by supporting development of algorithms with complex benchmarks and the capability to rapidly iterate over new ideas. The success of artificial intelligence algorithms in real-time strategy games such as StarCraft II have also attracted the attention of the military research community aiming to explore similar techniques in military counterpart scenarios. Aiming to bridge the connection between games and military applications, this work discusses past and current efforts on how games and simulators, together with the artificial intelligence algorithms, have been adapted to simulate certain aspects of military missions and how they might impact the future battlefield. This paper also investigates how advances in virtual reality and visual augmentation systems open new possibilities in human interfaces with gaming platforms and their military parallels.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.