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We propose DeepIPC, an end-to-end autonomous driving model that handles both perception and control tasks in driving a vehicle. The model consists of two main parts, perception and controller modules. The perception module takes an RGBD image to perform semantic segmentation and bird's eye view (BEV) semantic mapping along with providing their encoded features. Meanwhile, the controller module processes these features with the measurement of GNSS locations and angular speed to estimate waypoints that come with latent features. Then, two different agents are used to translate waypoints and latent features into a set of navigational controls to drive the vehicle. The model is evaluated by predicting driving records and performing automated driving under various conditions in real environments. The experimental results show that DeepIPC achieves the best drivability and multi-task performance even with fewer parameters compared to the other models. Codes will be published at //github.com/oskarnatan/DeepIPC.

Treatment effect estimation is of high-importance for both researchers and practitioners across many scientific and industrial domains. The abundance of observational data makes them increasingly used by researchers for the estimation of causal effects. However, these data suffer from biases, from several weaknesses, leading to inaccurate causal effect estimations, if not handled properly. Therefore, several machine learning techniques have been proposed, most of them focusing on leveraging the predictive power of neural network models to attain more precise estimation of causal effects. In this work, we propose a new methodology, named Nearest Neighboring Information for Causal Inference (NNCI), for integrating valuable nearest neighboring information on neural network-based models for estimating treatment effects. The proposed NNCI methodology is applied to some of the most well established neural network-based models for treatment effect estimation with the use of observational data. Numerical experiments and analysis provide empirical and statistical evidence that the integration of NNCI with state-of-the-art neural network models leads to considerably improved treatment effect estimations on a variety of well-known challenging benchmarks.

To address the problem of NLP classifiers learning spurious correlations between training features and target labels, a common approach is to make the model's predictions invariant to these features. However, this can be counter-productive when the features have a non-zero causal effect on the target label and thus are important for prediction. Therefore, using methods from the causal inference literature, we propose an algorithm to regularize the learnt effect of the features on the model's prediction to the estimated effect of feature on label. This results in an automated augmentation method that leverages the estimated effect of a feature to appropriately change the labels for new augmented inputs. On toxicity and IMDB review datasets, the proposed algorithm minimises spurious correlations and improves the minority group (i.e., samples breaking spurious correlations) accuracy, while also improving the total accuracy compared to standard training.

Understanding individual treatment effects in extreme regimes is important for characterizing risks associated with different interventions. This is hindered by the fact that extreme regime data may be hard to collect, as it is scarcely observed in practice. In addressing this issue, we propose a new framework for estimating the individual treatment effect in extreme regimes (ITE$_2$). Specifically, we quantify this effect by the changes in the tail decay rates of potential outcomes in the presence or absence of the treatment. Subsequently, we establish conditions under which ITE$_2$ may be calculated and develop algorithms for its computation. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method on various synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the outcome evolves under different scenarios assume that the tentative sequences of future treatments are fixed in advance, while in practice the treatments are determined stochastically by a policy and may depend, for example, on the efficiency of previous treatments. Therefore, the current methods are not applicable if the treatment policy is unknown or a counterfactual analysis is needed. To handle these limitations, we model the treatments and outcomes jointly in continuous time, by combining Gaussian processes and point processes. Our model enables the estimation of a treatment policy from observational sequences of treatments and outcomes, and it can predict the interventional and counterfactual progression of the outcome after an intervention on the treatment policy (in contrast with the causal effect of a single treatment). We show with real-world and semi-synthetic data on blood glucose progression that our method can answer causal queries more accurately than existing alternatives.

Stepped wedge cluster randomized experiments represent a class of unidirectional crossover designs that are increasingly adopted for comparative effectiveness and implementation science research. Although stepped wedge cluster randomized experiments have become popular, definitions of estimands and robust methods to target clearly-defined estimands remain insufficient. To address this gap, we describe a class of estimands that explicitly acknowledge the multilevel data structure in stepped wedge cluster randomized experiments, and highlight three typical members of the estimand class that are interpretable and are of practical interest. We then discuss four formulations of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) working models to achieve estimand-aligned analyses. By exploiting baseline covariates, each ANCOVA model can potentially improve the estimation efficiency over the unadjusted estimators. In addition, each ANCOVA estimator is model-assisted in a sense that its point estimator is consistent to the target estimand even when the working model is misspecified. Under the stepped wedge randomization scheme, we establish the finite population Central Limit Theorem for each estimator, which motivates design-based variance estimators. Through simulations, we study the finite-sample operating characteristics of the ANCOVA estimators under different data generating processes. We illustrate their applications via the analysis of the Washington State Expedited Partner Therapy study.

Sequential Multiple-Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) play an increasingly important role in psychological and behavioral health research. This experimental approach enables researchers to answer scientific questions about how to sequence and match interventions to the unique, changing needs of individuals. A variety of sample size planning resources for SMART studies have been developed in recent years; these enable researchers to plan SMARTs for addressing different types of scientific questions. However, relatively limited attention has been given to planning SMARTs with binary (dichotomous) outcomes, which often require higher sample sizes relative to continuous outcomes. Existing resources for estimating sample size requirements for SMARTs with binary outcomes do not consider the potential to improve power by including a baseline measurement and/or multiple repeated outcome measurements. The current paper addresses this issue by providing sample size simulation code and approximate formulas for two-wave repeated measures binary outcomes (i.e., two measurement times for the outcome variable, before and after receiving the intervention). The simulation results agree well with the formulas. We also discuss how to use simulations to calculate power for studies with more than two outcome measurement occasions. The results show that having at least one repeated measurement of the outcome can substantially improve power under certain conditions.

Choice problems refer to selecting the best choices from several items, and learning users' preferences in choice problems is of great significance in understanding the decision making mechanisms and providing personalized services. Existing works typically assume that people evaluate items independently. In practice, however, users' preferences depend on the market in which items are placed, which is known as context effects; and the order of users' preferences for two items may even be reversed, which is referred to preference reversals. In this work, we identify three factors contributing to context effects: users' adaptive weights, the inter-item comparison, and display positions. We propose a context-dependent preference model named Pacos as a unified framework for addressing three factors simultaneously, and consider two design methods including an additive method with high interpretability and an ANN-based method with high accuracy. We study the conditions for preference reversals to occur and provide an theoretical proof of the effectiveness of Pacos in addressing preference reversals. Experimental results show that the proposed method has better performance than prior works in predicting users' choices, and has great interpretability to help understand the cause of preference reversals.

Network interference, where the outcome of an individual is affected by the treatment assignment of those in their social network, is pervasive in real-world settings. However, it poses a challenge to estimating causal effects. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), or the difference between the average outcomes of the population when everyone is treated versus when no one is, under network interference. Under a Bernoulli randomized design, we provide an unbiased estimator for the TTE when network interference effects are constrained to low order interactions among neighbors of an individual. We make no assumptions on the graph other than bounded degree, allowing for well-connected networks that may not be easily clustered. We derive a bound on the variance of our estimator and show in simulated experiments that it performs well compared with standard estimators for the TTE. We also derive a minimax lower bound on the mean squared error of our estimator which suggests that the difficulty of estimation can be characterized by the degree of interactions in the potential outcomes model. We also prove that our estimator is asymptotically normal under boundedness conditions on the network degree and potential outcomes model. Central to our contribution is a new framework for balancing model flexibility and statistical complexity as captured by this low order interactions structure.