Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with latent processes endowed with a non-linear diffusion process prior are intractable problems. We build upon work within variational inference approximating the posterior process as a linear diffusion process, point out pathologies in the approach, and propose an alternative parameterization of the Gaussian variational process using a continuous exponential family description. This allows us to trade a slow inference algorithm with fixed-point iterations for a fast algorithm for convex optimization akin to natural gradient descent, which also provides a better objective for the learning of model parameters.
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Processing 是一門開源編程語言和與之配套的集成開發環境（IDE）的名稱。Processing 在電子藝術和視覺設計社區被用來教授編程基礎，并運用于大量的新媒體和互動藝術作品中。
We establish a connection between stochastic optimal control and generative models based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs), such as recently developed diffusion probabilistic models. In particular, we derive a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation that governs the evolution of the log-densities of the underlying SDE marginals. This perspective allows to transfer methods from optimal control theory to generative modeling. First, we show that the evidence lower bound is a direct consequence of the well-known verification theorem from control theory. Further, we can formulate diffusion-based generative modeling as a minimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between suitable measures in path space. Finally, we develop a novel diffusion-based method for sampling from unnormalized densities -- a problem frequently occurring in statistics and computational sciences. We demonstrate that our time-reversed diffusion sampler (DIS) can outperform other diffusion-based sampling approaches on multiple numerical examples.
Diffusion models can be parameterised in terms of either a score or an energy function. The energy parameterisation has better theoretical properties, mainly that it enables an extended sampling procedure with a Metropolis--Hastings correction step, based on the change in total energy in the proposed samples. However, it seems to yield slightly worse performance, and more importantly, due to the widespread popularity of score-based diffusion, there are limited availability of off-the-shelf pre-trained energy-based ones. This limitation undermines the purpose of model composition, which aims to combine pre-trained models to sample from new distributions. Our proposal, however, suggests retaining the score parameterization and instead computing the energy-based acceptance probability through line integration of the score function. This allows us to re-use existing diffusion models and still combine the reverse process with various Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We evaluate our method on a 2D experiment and find that it achieve similar or arguably better performance than the energy parameterisation.
This paper deals with a projection least squares estimator of the drift function of a jump diffusion process $X$ computed from multiple independent copies of $X$ observed on $[0,T]$. Risk bounds are established on this estimator and on an associated adaptive estimator. Finally, some numerical experiments are provided.
Deep hedging is a deep-learning-based framework for derivative hedging in incomplete markets. The advantage of deep hedging lies in its ability to handle various realistic market conditions, such as market frictions, which are challenging to address within the traditional mathematical finance framework. Since deep hedging relies on market simulation, the underlying asset price process model is crucial. However, existing literature on deep hedging often relies on traditional mathematical finance models, e.g., Brownian motion and stochastic volatility models, and discovering effective underlying asset models for deep hedging learning has been a challenge. In this study, we propose a new framework called adversarial deep hedging, inspired by adversarial learning. In this framework, a hedger and a generator, which respectively model the underlying asset process and the underlying asset process, are trained in an adversarial manner. The proposed method enables to learn a robust hedger without explicitly modeling the underlying asset process. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed method achieves competitive performance to models that assume explicit underlying asset processes across various real market data.
The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate L\'evy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of the process, we develop consistent and asymptotically normal maximum likelihood estimators. We then relax the unrealistic assumption of continuous-time observation by considering natural discretizations based on a combination of Riemann-sum, finite difference, and thresholding approximations. The resulting estimators are also proven to be consistent and asymptotically normal under a general set of conditions, allowing for both finite and infinite jump activity in the driving L\'evy process. When discretizing the estimators, allowing for irregularly spaced observations is of great practical importance. In this respect, CAR($p$) models are not just relevant for "true" continuous-time processes: a CAR($p$) specification provides a natural continuous-time interpolation for modeling irregularly spaced data - even if the observed process is inherently discrete. As a practically relevant application, we consider the setting where the multivariate observation is known to possess a graphical structure. We refer to such a process as GrCAR and discuss the corresponding drift estimators and their properties. The finite sample behavior of all theoretical asymptotic results is empirically assessed by extensive simulation experiments.
Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended $\beta$-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.
The ability to envision future states is crucial to informed decision making while interacting with dynamic environments. With cameras providing a prevalent and information rich sensing modality, the problem of predicting future states from image sequences has garnered a lot of attention. Current state of the art methods typically train large parametric models for their predictions. Though often able to predict with accuracy, these models rely on the availability of large training datasets to converge to useful solutions. In this paper we focus on the problem of predicting future images of an image sequence from very little training data. To approach this problem, we use non-parametric models to take a probabilistic approach to image prediction. We generate probability distributions over sequentially predicted images and propagate uncertainty through time to generate a confidence metric for our predictions. Gaussian Processes are used for their data efficiency and ability to readily incorporate new training data online. We showcase our method by successfully predicting future frames of a smooth fluid simulation environment.
Many food products involve mixtures of ingredients, where the mixtures can be expressed as combinations of ingredient proportions. In many cases, the quality and the consumer preference may also depend on the way in which the mixtures are processed. The processing is generally defined by the settings of one or more process variables. Experimental designs studying the joint impact of the mixture ingredient proportions and the settings of the process variables are called mixture-process variable experiments. In this article, we show how to combine mixture-process variable experiments and discrete choice experiments, to quantify and model consumer preferences for food products that can be viewed as processed mixtures. First, we describe the modeling of data from such combined experiments. Next, we describe how to generate D- and I-optimal designs for choice experiments involving mixtures and process variables, and we compare the two kinds of designs using two examples.
Sequential recommendation as an emerging topic has attracted increasing attention due to its important practical significance. Models based on deep learning and attention mechanism have achieved good performance in sequential recommendation. Recently, the generative models based on Variational Autoencoder (VAE) have shown the unique advantage in collaborative filtering. In particular, the sequential VAE model as a recurrent version of VAE can effectively capture temporal dependencies among items in user sequence and perform sequential recommendation. However, VAE-based models suffer from a common limitation that the representational ability of the obtained approximate posterior distribution is limited, resulting in lower quality of generated samples. This is especially true for generating sequences. To solve the above problem, in this work, we propose a novel method called Adversarial and Contrastive Variational Autoencoder (ACVAE) for sequential recommendation. Specifically, we first introduce the adversarial training for sequence generation under the Adversarial Variational Bayes (AVB) framework, which enables our model to generate high-quality latent variables. Then, we employ the contrastive loss. The latent variables will be able to learn more personalized and salient characteristics by minimizing the contrastive loss. Besides, when encoding the sequence, we apply a recurrent and convolutional structure to capture global and local relationships in the sequence. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on four real-world datasets. The experimental results show that our proposed ACVAE model outperforms other state-of-the-art methods.
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