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In recent years, gradient based Meta-RL (GMRL) methods have achieved remarkable successes in either discovering effective online hyperparameter for one single task (Xu et al., 2018) or learning good initialisation for multi-task transfer learning (Finn et al., 2017). Despite the empirical successes, it is often neglected that computing meta gradients via vanilla backpropagation is ill-defined. In this paper, we argue that the stochastic meta-gradient estimation adopted by many existing MGRL methods are in fact biased; the bias comes from two sources: 1) the compositional bias that is inborn in the structure of compositional optimisation problems and 2) the bias of multi-step Hessian estimation caused by direct automatic differentiation. To better understand the meta gradient biases, we perform the first of its kind study to quantify the amount for each of them. We start by providing a unifying derivation for existing GMRL algorithms, and then theoretically analyse both the bias and the variance of existing gradient estimation methods. On understanding the underlying principles of bias, we propose two mitigation solutions based on off-policy correction and multi-step Hessian estimation techniques. Comprehensive ablation studies have been conducted and results reveals: (1) The existence of these two biases and how they influence the meta-gradient estimation when combined with different estimator/sample size/step and learning rate. (2) The effectiveness of these mitigation approaches for meta-gradient estimation and thereby the final return on two practical Meta-RL algorithms: LOLA-DiCE and Meta-gradient Reinforcement Learning.

For randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with a single intervention being measured on multiple outcomes, researchers often apply a multiple testing procedure (such as Bonferroni or Benjamini-Hochberg) to adjust $p$-values. Such an adjustment reduces the likelihood of spurious findings, but also changes the statistical power, sometimes substantially, which reduces the probability of detecting effects when they do exist. However, this consideration is frequently ignored in typical power analyses, as existing tools do not easily accommodate the use of multiple testing procedures. We introduce the PUMP R package as a tool for analysts to estimate statistical power, minimum detectable effect size, and sample size requirements for multi-level RCTs with multiple outcomes. Multiple outcomes are accounted for in two ways. First, power estimates from PUMP properly account for the adjustment in $p$-values from applying a multiple testing procedure. Second, as researchers change their focus from one outcome to multiple outcomes, different definitions of statistical power emerge. PUMP allows researchers to consider a variety of definitions of power, as some may be more appropriate for the goals of their study. The package estimates power for frequentist multi-level mixed effects models, and supports a variety of commonly-used RCT designs and models and multiple testing procedures. In addition to the main functionality of estimating power, minimum detectable effect size, and sample size requirements, the package allows the user to easily explore sensitivity of these quantities to changes in underlying assumptions.

For sequential data, change points are moments of abrupt regime switches. Such changes appear in different scenarios, including complex video surveillance, and we need to detect them as fast as possible. Classic approaches for change point detection (CPD) perform poorly for semi-structured sequential data because of the absence of adequate data representation learning procedure. We propose a principled loss function that approximates classic rigorous solutions but is differentiable and makes possible representation learning. This loss function balances change detection delay and time to false alarm to provide a successful model for CPD. In experiments, we consider simple series and more complex real-world image sequences and videos with change points. For more complex problems, we show that we need more meaningful representations tailored for the specificity of the CPD task. Taking this into account, the proposed approach InDiD improves baseline results of CPD for various data types. For explosion detection, F1 score for our method is $0.54$ compared to baseline scores $0.46$ and $0.30$.

We study continuity of the roots of nonmonic polynomials as a function of their coefficients using only the most elementary results from an introductory course in real analysis and the theory of single variable polynomials. Our approach gives both qualitative and quantitative results in the case that the degree of the unperturbed polynomial can change under a perturbation of its coefficients, a case that naturally occurs, for instance, in stability theory of polynomials, singular perturbation theory, or in the perturbation theory for generalized eigenvalue problems. An application of our results in multivariate stability theory is provided which is important in, for example, the study of hyperbolic polynomials or realizability and synthesis problems in passive electrical network theory, and will be of general interest to mathematicians as well as physicists and engineers.

Change Point Detection techniques aim to capture changes in trends and sequences in time-series data to describe the underlying behaviour of the system. Detecting changes and anomalies in the web services, the trend of applications usage can provide valuable insight towards the system, however, many existing approaches are done in a supervised manner, requiring well-labelled data. As the amount of data produced and captured by sensors are growing rapidly, it is getting harder and even impossible to annotate the data. Therefore, coming up with a self-supervised solution is a necessity these days. In this work, we propose TSCP a novel self-supervised technique for temporal change point detection, based on representation learning with Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN). To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first method which employs Contrastive Learning for prediction with the aim change point detection. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that our method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art change point detection and anomaly detection baselines, including those adopting either unsupervised or semi-supervised approach. TSCP is shown to improve both non-Deep learning- and Deep learning-based methods by 0.28 and 0.12 in terms of average F1-score across three datasets.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

The monitoring and management of numerous and diverse time series data at Alibaba Group calls for an effective and scalable time series anomaly detection service. In this paper, we propose RobustTAD, a Robust Time series Anomaly Detection framework by integrating robust seasonal-trend decomposition and convolutional neural network for time series data. The seasonal-trend decomposition can effectively handle complicated patterns in time series, and meanwhile significantly simplifies the architecture of the neural network, which is an encoder-decoder architecture with skip connections. This architecture can effectively capture the multi-scale information from time series, which is very useful in anomaly detection. Due to the limited labeled data in time series anomaly detection, we systematically investigate data augmentation methods in both time and frequency domains. We also introduce label-based weight and value-based weight in the loss function by utilizing the unbalanced nature of the time series anomaly detection problem. Compared with the widely used forecasting-based anomaly detection algorithms, decomposition-based algorithms, traditional statistical algorithms, as well as recent neural network based algorithms, RobustTAD performs significantly better on public benchmark datasets. It is deployed as a public online service and widely adopted in different business scenarios at Alibaba Group.

Fake news can significantly misinform people who often rely on online sources and social media for their information. Current research on fake news detection has mostly focused on analyzing fake news content and how it propagates on a network of users. In this paper, we emphasize the detection of fake news by assessing its credibility. By analyzing public fake news data, we show that information on news sources (and authors) can be a strong indicator of credibility. Our findings suggest that an author's history of association with fake news, and the number of authors of a news article, can play a significant role in detecting fake news. Our approach can help improve traditional fake news detection methods, wherein content features are often used to detect fake news.

Detecting objects in aerial images is challenging for at least two reasons: (1) target objects like pedestrians are very small in pixels, making them hardly distinguished from surrounding background; and (2) targets are in general sparsely and non-uniformly distributed, making the detection very inefficient. In this paper, we address both issues inspired by observing that these targets are often clustered. In particular, we propose a Clustered Detection (ClusDet) network that unifies object clustering and detection in an end-to-end framework. The key components in ClusDet include a cluster proposal sub-network (CPNet), a scale estimation sub-network (ScaleNet), and a dedicated detection network (DetecNet). Given an input image, CPNet produces object cluster regions and ScaleNet estimates object scales for these regions. Then, each scale-normalized cluster region is fed into DetecNet for object detection. ClusDet has several advantages over previous solutions: (1) it greatly reduces the number of chips for final object detection and hence achieves high running time efficiency, (2) the cluster-based scale estimation is more accurate than previously used single-object based ones, hence effectively improves the detection for small objects, and (3) the final DetecNet is dedicated for clustered regions and implicitly models the prior context information so as to boost detection accuracy. The proposed method is tested on three popular aerial image datasets including VisDrone, UAVDT and DOTA. In all experiments, ClusDet achieves promising performance in comparison with state-of-the-art detectors. Code will be available in \url{//github.com/fyangneil}.

The prevalence of networked sensors and actuators in many real-world systems such as smart buildings, factories, power plants, and data centers generate substantial amounts of multivariate time series data for these systems. The rich sensor data can be continuously monitored for intrusion events through anomaly detection. However, conventional threshold-based anomaly detection methods are inadequate due to the dynamic complexities of these systems, while supervised machine learning methods are unable to exploit the large amounts of data due to the lack of labeled data. On the other hand, current unsupervised machine learning approaches have not fully exploited the spatial-temporal correlation and other dependencies amongst the multiple variables (sensors/actuators) in the system for detecting anomalies. In this work, we propose an unsupervised multivariate anomaly detection method based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Instead of treating each data stream independently, our proposed MAD-GAN framework considers the entire variable set concurrently to capture the latent interactions amongst the variables. We also fully exploit both the generator and discriminator produced by the GAN, using a novel anomaly score called DR-score to detect anomalies by discrimination and reconstruction. We have tested our proposed MAD-GAN using two recent datasets collected from real-world CPS: the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) and the Water Distribution (WADI) datasets. Our experimental results showed that the proposed MAD-GAN is effective in reporting anomalies caused by various cyber-intrusions compared in these complex real-world systems.