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Traditional methods for point forecasting in univariate random walks often fail to surpass naive benchmarks due to data unpredictability. This study introduces a novel forecasting method that fuses movement prediction (binary classification) with naive forecasts for accurate one-step-ahead point forecasting. The method's efficacy is demonstrated through theoretical analysis, simulations, and real-world data experiments. It reliably exceeds naive forecasts with movement prediction accuracies as low as 0.55, outperforming baseline models like ARIMA, linear regression, MLP, and LSTM networks in forecasting the S\&P 500 index and Bitcoin prices. This method is particularly advantageous when accurate point predictions are challenging but accurate movement predictions are attainable, translating movement predictions into point forecasts in random walk contexts.

We propose a data cleansing method that utilizes a neural analysis and synthesis (NANSY++) framework to train an end-to-end neural diarization model (EEND) for singer diarization. Our proposed model converts song data with choral singing which is commonly contained in popular music and unsuitable for generating a simulated dataset to the solo singing data. This cleansing is based on NANSY++, which is a framework trained to reconstruct an input non-overlapped audio signal. We exploit the pre-trained NANSY++ to convert choral singing into clean, non-overlapped audio. This cleansing process mitigates the mislabeling of choral singing to solo singing and helps the effective training of EEND models even when the majority of available song data contains choral singing sections. We experimentally evaluated the EEND model trained with a dataset using our proposed method using annotated popular duet songs. As a result, our proposed method improved 14.8 points in diarization error rate.

Crossed random effects structures arise in many scientific contexts. They raise severe computational problems with likelihood computations scaling like $N^{3/2}$ or worse for $N$ data points. In this paper we develop a new composite likelihood approach for crossed random effects probit models. For data arranged in R rows and C columns, the likelihood function includes a very difficult R + C dimensional integral. The composite likelihood we develop uses the marginal distribution of the response along with two hierarchical models. The cost is reduced to $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and it can be computed with $R + C$ one dimensional integrals. We find that the commonly used Laplace approximation has a cost that grows superlinearly. We get consistent estimates of the probit slope and variance components from our composite likelihood algorithm. We also show how to estimate the covariance of the estimated regression coefficients. The algorithm scales readily to a data set of five million observations from Stitch Fix with $R + C > 700{,}000$.

Symbolic Computation algorithms and their implementation in computer algebra systems often contain choices which do not affect the correctness of the output but can significantly impact the resources required: such choices can benefit from having them made separately for each problem via a machine learning model. This study reports lessons on such use of machine learning in symbolic computation, in particular on the importance of analysing datasets prior to machine learning and on the different machine learning paradigms that may be utilised. We present results for a particular case study, the selection of variable ordering for cylindrical algebraic decomposition, but expect that the lessons learned are applicable to other decisions in symbolic computation. We utilise an existing dataset of examples derived from applications which was found to be imbalanced with respect to the variable ordering decision. We introduce an augmentation technique for polynomial systems problems that allows us to balance and further augment the dataset, improving the machine learning results by 28\% and 38\% on average, respectively. We then demonstrate how the existing machine learning methodology used for the problem $-$ classification $-$ might be recast into the regression paradigm. While this does not have a radical change on the performance, it does widen the scope in which the methodology can be applied to make choices.

A polynomial homotopy is a family of polynomial systems, typically in one parameter $t$. Our problem is to compute power series expansions of the coordinates of the solutions in the parameter $t$, accurately, using multiple double arithmetic. One application of this problem is the location of the nearest singular solution in a polynomial homotopy, via the theorem of Fabry. Power series serve as input to construct Pad\'{e} approximations. Exploiting the massive parallelism of Graphics Processing Units capable of performing several trillions floating-point operations per second, the objective is to compensate for the cost overhead caused by arithmetic with power series in multiple double precision. The application of Newton's method for this problem requires the evaluation and differentiation of polynomials, followed by solving a blocked lower triangular linear system. Experimental results are obtained on NVIDIA GPUs, in particular the RTX 2080, RTX 4080, P100, V100, and A100. Code generated by the CAMPARY software is used to obtain results in double double, quad double, and octo double precision. The programs in this study are self contained, available in a public github repository under the GPL-v3.0 License.

Data, algorithms, and arithmetic power are the three foundational conditions for deep learning to be effective in the application domain. Data is the focus for developing deep learning algorithms. In practical engineering applications, some data are affected by the conditions under which more data cannot be obtained or the cost of obtaining data is too high, resulting in smaller data sets (generally several hundred to several thousand) and data sizes that are far smaller than the size of large data sets (tens of thousands). The above two methods are based on the original dataset to generate, in the case of insufficient data volume of the original data may not reflect all the real environment, such as the real environment of the light, silhouette and other information, if the amount of data is not enough, it is difficult to use a simple transformation or neural network generative model to generate the required data. The research in this paper firstly analyses the key points of the data enhancement technology of graph neural network, and at the same time introduces the composition foundation of graph neural network in depth, on the basis of which the data enhancement technology of graph neural network is optimized and analysed.

This work presents a procedure to solve the Euler equations by explicitly updating, in a conservative manner, a generic thermodynamic variable such as temperature, pressure or entropy instead of the total energy. The presented procedure is valid for any equation of state and spatial discretization. When using complex equations of state such as Span-Wagner, choosing the temperature as the generic thermodynamic variable yields great reductions in the computational costs associated to thermodynamic evaluations. Results computed with a state of the art thermodynamic model are presented, and computational times are analyzed. Particular attention is dedicated to the conservation of total energy, the propagation speed of shock waves and jump conditions. The procedure is thoroughly tested using the Span-Wagner equation of state through the CoolProp thermodynamic library and the Van der Waals equation of state, both in the ideal and non-ideal compressible fluid-dynamics regimes, by comparing it to the standard total energy update and analytical solutions where available.

We study interacting particle systems driven by noise, modeling phenomena such as opinion dynamics. We are interested in systems that exhibit phase transitions i.e. non-uniqueness of stationary states for the corresponding McKean-Vlasov PDE, in the mean field limit. We develop an efficient numerical scheme for identifying all steady states (both stable and unstable) of the mean field McKean-Vlasov PDE, based on a spectral Galerkin approximation combined with a deflated Newton's method to handle the multiplicity of solutions. Having found all possible equilibra, we formulate an optimal control strategy for steering the dynamics towards a chosen unstable steady state. The control is computed using iterated open-loop solvers in a receding horizon fashion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed steady state computation and stabilization methodology on several examples, including the noisy Hegselmann-Krause model for opinion dynamics and the Haken-Kelso-Bunz model from biophysics. The numerical experiments validate the ability of the approach to capture the rich self-organization landscape of these systems and to stabilize unstable configurations of interest. The proposed computational framework opens up new possibilities for understanding and controlling the collective behavior of noise-driven interacting particle systems, with potential applications in various fields such as social dynamics, biological synchronization, and collective behavior in physical and social systems.

Segmentation models for brain lesions in MRI are commonly developed for a specific disease and trained on data with a predefined set of MRI modalities. Each such model cannot segment the disease using data with a different set of MRI modalities, nor can it segment any other type of disease. Moreover, this training paradigm does not allow a model to benefit from learning from heterogeneous databases that may contain scans and segmentation labels for different types of brain pathologies and diverse sets of MRI modalities. Is it feasible to use Federated Learning (FL) for training a single model on client databases that contain scans and labels of different brain pathologies and diverse sets of MRI modalities? We demonstrate promising results by combining appropriate, simple, and practical modifications to the model and training strategy: Designing a model with input channels that cover the whole set of modalities available across clients, training with random modality drop, and exploring the effects of feature normalization methods. Evaluation on 7 brain MRI databases with 5 different diseases shows that such FL framework can train a single model that is shown to be very promising in segmenting all disease types seen during training. Importantly, it is able to segment these diseases in new databases that contain sets of modalities different from those in training clients. These results demonstrate, for the first time, feasibility and effectiveness of using FL to train a single segmentation model on decentralised data with diverse brain diseases and MRI modalities, a necessary step towards leveraging heterogeneous real-world databases. Code will be made available at: //github.com/FelixWag/FL-MultiDisease-MRI

The classical theory of Kosambi-Cartan-Chern (KCC) developed in differential geometry provides a powerful method for analyzing the behaviors of dynamical systems. In the KCC theory, the properties of a dynamical system are described in terms of five geometrical invariants, of which the second corresponds to the so-called Jacobi stability of the system. Different from that of the Lyapunov stability that has been studied extensively in the literature, the analysis of the Jacobi stability has been investigated more recently using geometrical concepts and tools. It turns out that the existing work on the Jacobi stability analysis remains theoretical and the problem of algorithmic and symbolic treatment of Jacobi stability analysis has yet to be addressed. In this paper, we initiate our study on the problem for a class of ODE systems of arbitrary dimension and propose two algorithmic schemes using symbolic computation to check whether a nonlinear dynamical system may exhibit Jacobi stability. The first scheme, based on the construction of the complex root structure of a characteristic polynomial and on the method of quantifier elimination, is capable of detecting the existence of the Jacobi stability of the given dynamical system. The second algorithmic scheme exploits the method of semi-algebraic system solving and allows one to determine conditions on the parameters for a given dynamical system to have a prescribed number of Jacobi stable fixed points. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithmic schemes.