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We explore how observational and interventional causal discovery methods can be combined. A state-of-the-art observational causal discovery algorithm for time series capable of handling latent confounders and contemporaneous effects, called LPCMCI, is extended to profit from casual constraints found through randomized control trials. Numerical results show that, given perfect interventional constraints, the reconstructed structural causal models (SCMs) of the extended LPCMCI allow 84.6% of the time for the optimal prediction of the target variable. The implementation of interventional and observational causal discovery is modular, allowing causal constraints from other sources. The second part of this thesis investigates the question of regret minimizing control by simultaneously learning a causal model and planning actions through the causal model. The idea is that an agent to optimize a measured variable first learns the system's mechanics through observational causal discovery. The agent then intervenes on the most promising variable with randomized values allowing for the exploitation and generation of new interventional data. The agent then uses the interventional data to enhance the causal model further, allowing improved actions the next time. The extended LPCMCI can be favorable compared to the original LPCMCI algorithm. The numerical results show that detecting and using interventional constraints leads to reconstructed SCMs that allow 60.9% of the time for the optimal prediction of the target variable in contrast to the baseline of 53.6% when using the original LPCMCI algorithm. Furthermore, the induced average regret decreases from 1.2 when using the original LPCMCI algorithm to 1.0 when using the extended LPCMCI algorithm with interventional discovery.

This paper investigates unsupervised approaches to overcome quintessential challenges in designing task-oriented dialog schema: assigning intent labels to each dialog turn (intent clustering) and generating a set of intents based on the intent clustering methods (intent induction). We postulate there are two salient factors for automatic induction of intents: (1) clustering algorithm for intent labeling and (2) user utterance embedding space. We compare existing off-the-shelf clustering models and embeddings based on DSTC11 evaluation. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that we sholud add two huge caveat that selection of utterance embedding and clustering method in intent induction task should be very careful. We also present that pretrained MiniLM with Agglomerative clustering shows significant improvement in NMI, ARI, F1, accuracy and example coverage in intent induction tasks. The source code for reimplementation will be available at Github.

After being trained on a fully-labeled training set, where the observations are grouped into a certain number of known classes, novelty detection methods aim to classify the instances of an unlabeled test set while allowing for the presence of previously unseen classes. These models are valuable in many areas, ranging from social network and food adulteration analyses to biology, where an evolving population may be present. In this paper, we focus on a two-stage Bayesian semiparametric novelty detector, also known as Brand, recently introduced in the literature. Leveraging on a model-based mixture representation, Brand allows clustering the test observations into known training terms or a single novelty term. Furthermore, the novelty term is modeled with a Dirichlet Process mixture model to flexibly capture any departure from the known patterns. Brand was originally estimated using MCMC schemes, which are prohibitively costly when applied to high-dimensional data. To scale up Brand applicability to large datasets, we propose to resort to a variational Bayes approach, providing an efficient algorithm for posterior approximation. We demonstrate a significant gain in efficiency and excellent classification performance with thorough simulation studies. Finally, to showcase its applicability, we perform a novelty detection analysis using the openly-available Statlog dataset, a large collection of satellite imaging spectra, to search for novel soil types.

Physical activity (PA) is significantly associated with many health outcomes. The wide usage of wearable accelerometer-based activity trackers in recent years has provided a unique opportunity for in-depth research on PA and its relations with health outcomes and interventions. Past analysis of activity tracker data relies heavily on aggregating minute-level PA records into day-level summary statistics, in which important information of PA temporal/diurnal patterns is lost. In this paper we propose a novel functional data analysis approach based on Riemann manifolds for modeling PA and its longitudinal changes. We model smoothed minute-level PA of a day as one-dimensional Riemann manifolds and longitudinal changes in PA in different visits as deformations between manifolds. The variability in changes of PA among a cohort of subjects is characterized via variability in the deformation. Functional principal component analysis is further adopted to model the deformations and PC scores are used as a proxy in modeling the relation between changes in PA and health outcomes and/or interventions. We conduct comprehensive analyses on data from two clinical trials: Reach for Health (RfH) and Metabolism, Exercise and Nutrition at UCSD (MENU), focusing on the effect of interventions on longitudinal changes in PA patterns and how different modes of changes in PA influence weight loss, respectively. The proposed approach reveals unique modes of changes including overall enhanced PA, boosted morning PA, and shifts of active hours specific to each study cohort. The results bring new insights into the study of longitudinal changes in PA and health and have the potential to facilitate designing of effective health interventions and guidelines.

In many applications, we want to influence the decisions of independent agents by designing incentives for their actions. We revisit a fundamental problem in this area, called GAME IMPLEMENTATION: Given a game in standard form and a set of desired strategies, can we design a set of payment promises such that if the players take the payment promises into account, then all undominated strategies are desired? Furthermore, we aim to minimize the cost, that is, the worst-case amount of payments. We study the tractability of computing such payment promises and determine more closely what obstructions we may have to overcome in doing so. We show that GAME IMPLEMENTATION is NP-hard even for two players, solving in particular a long open question (Eidenbenz et al. 2011) and suggesting more restrictions are necessary to obtain tractability results. We thus study the regime in which players have only a small constant number of strategies and obtain the following. First, this case remains NP-hard even if each player's utility depends only on three others. Second, we repair a flawed efficient algorithm for the case of both small number of strategies and small number of players. Among further results, we characterize sets of desired strategies that can be implemented at zero cost as a kind of stable core of the game.

With the rapid increase in the size and volume of cloud services and data centers, architectures with multiple job dispatchers are quickly becoming the norm. Load balancing is a key element of such systems. Nevertheless, current solutions to load balancing in such systems admit a paradoxical behavior in which more accurate information regarding server queue lengths degrades performance due to herding and detrimental incast effects. Indeed, both in theory and in practice, there is a common doubt regarding the value of information in the context of multi-dispatcher load balancing. As a result, both researchers and system designers resort to more straightforward solutions, such as the power-of-two-choices to avoid worst-case scenarios, potentially sacrificing overall resource utilization and system performance. A principal focus of our investigation concerns the value of information about queue lengths in the multi-dispatcher setting. We argue that, at its core, load balancing with multiple dispatchers is a distributed computing task. In that light, we propose a new job dispatching approach, called Tidal Water Filling, which addresses the distributed nature of the system. Specifically, by incorporating the existence of other dispatchers into the decision-making process, our protocols outperform previous solutions in many scenarios. In particular, when the dispatchers have complete and accurate information regarding the server queues, our policies significantly outperform all existing solutions.

Multifidelity methods are widely used for estimating quantities of interest (QoI) in computational science by employing numerical simulations of differing costs and accuracies. Many methods approximate numerical-valued statistics that represent only limited information, e.g., scalar statistics, about the QoI. Further quantification of uncertainty, e.g., for risk assessment, failure probabilities, or confidence intervals, requires estimation of the full distributions. In this paper, we generalize the ideas in [Xu et al., SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 44.1 (2022), A150-A175] to develop a multifidelity method that approximates the full distribution of scalar-valued QoI. The main advantage of our approach compared to alternative methods is that we require no particular relationships among the high and lower-fidelity models (e.g. model hierarchy), and we do not assume any knowledge of model statistics including correlations and other cross-model statistics before the procedure starts. Under suitable assumptions in the framework above, we achieve provable 1-Wasserstein metric convergence of an algorithmically constructed distributional emulator via an exploration-exploitation strategy. We also prove that crucial policy actions taken by our algorithm are budget-asymptotically optimal. Numerical experiments are provided to support our theoretical analysis.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to ensuring the reliability and safety of machine learning systems. For instance, in autonomous driving, we would like the driving system to issue an alert and hand over the control to humans when it detects unusual scenes or objects that it has never seen before and cannot make a safe decision. This problem first emerged in 2017 and since then has received increasing attention from the research community, leading to a plethora of methods developed, ranging from classification-based to density-based to distance-based ones. Meanwhile, several other problems are closely related to OOD detection in terms of motivation and methodology. These include anomaly detection (AD), novelty detection (ND), open set recognition (OSR), and outlier detection (OD). Despite having different definitions and problem settings, these problems often confuse readers and practitioners, and as a result, some existing studies misuse terms. In this survey, we first present a generic framework called generalized OOD detection, which encompasses the five aforementioned problems, i.e., AD, ND, OSR, OOD detection, and OD. Under our framework, these five problems can be seen as special cases or sub-tasks, and are easier to distinguish. Then, we conduct a thorough review of each of the five areas by summarizing their recent technical developments. We conclude this survey with open challenges and potential research directions.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

In recent years, mobile devices have gained increasingly development with stronger computation capability and larger storage. Some of the computation-intensive machine learning and deep learning tasks can now be run on mobile devices. To take advantage of the resources available on mobile devices and preserve users' privacy, the idea of mobile distributed machine learning is proposed. It uses local hardware resources and local data to solve machine learning sub-problems on mobile devices, and only uploads computation results instead of original data to contribute to the optimization of the global model. This architecture can not only relieve computation and storage burden on servers, but also protect the users' sensitive information. Another benefit is the bandwidth reduction, as various kinds of local data can now participate in the training process without being uploaded to the server. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey on recent studies of mobile distributed machine learning. We survey a number of widely-used mobile distributed machine learning methods. We also present an in-depth discussion on the challenges and future directions in this area. We believe that this survey can demonstrate a clear overview of mobile distributed machine learning and provide guidelines on applying mobile distributed machine learning to real applications.