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We propose to estimate the weight matrix used for forecast reconciliation as parameters in a general linear model in order to quantify its uncertainty. This implies that forecast reconciliation can be formulated as an orthogonal projection from the space of base-forecast errors into a coherent linear subspace. We use variance decomposition together with the Wishart distribution to derive the central estimator for the forecast-error covariance matrix. In addition, we prove that distance-reducing properties apply to the reconciled forecasts at all levels of the hierarchy as well as to the forecast-error covariance. A covariance matrix for the reconciliation weight matrix is derived, which leads to improved estimates of the forecast-error covariance matrix. We show how shrinkage can be introduced in the formulated model by imposing specific priors on the weight matrix and the forecast-error covariance matrix. The method is illustrated in a simulation study that shows consistent improvements in the log-score. Finally, standard errors for the weight matrix and the variance-separation formula are illustrated using a case study of forecasting electricity load in Sweden.

The total energy cost of computing activities is steadily increasing and projections indicate that it will be one of the dominant global energy consumers in the coming decades. However, perhaps due to its relative youth, the video game sector has not yet developed the same level of environmental awareness as other computing technologies despite the estimated three billion regular video game players in the world. This work evaluates the energy consumption of the most widely used industry-scale video game engines: Unity and Unreal Engine. Specifically, our work uses three scenarios representing relevant aspects of video games (Physics, Statics Meshes, and Dynamic Meshes) to compare the energy consumption of the engines. The aim is to determine the influence of using each of the two engines on energy consumption. Our research has confirmed significant differences in the energy consumption of video game engines: 351% in Physics in favor of Unity, 17% in Statics Meshes in favor of Unity, and 26% in Dynamic Meshes in favor of Unreal Engine. These results represent an opportunity for worldwide potential savings of at least 51 TWh per year, equivalent to the annual consumption of nearly 13 million European households, that might encourage a new branch of research on energy-efficient video game engines.

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have been widely and successfully applied to solve multi-objective optimization problems, due to their nature of population-based search. Population update, a key component in multi-objective EAs (MOEAs), is usually performed in a greedy, deterministic manner. That is, the next-generation population is formed by selecting the best solutions from the current population and newly-generated solutions (irrespective of the selection criteria used such as Pareto dominance, crowdedness and indicators). In this paper, we question this practice. We analytically present that stochastic population update can be beneficial for the search of MOEAs. Specifically, we prove that the expected running time of two well-established MOEAs, SMS-EMOA and NSGA-II, for solving two bi-objective problems, OneJumpZeroJump and bi-objective RealRoyalRoad, can be exponentially decreased if replacing its deterministic population update mechanism by a stochastic one. Empirical studies also verify the effectiveness of the proposed population update method. This work is an attempt to challenge a common practice in the design of existing MOEAs. Its positive results, which might hold more generally, should encourage the exploration of developing new MOEAs in the area.

Motivated by the success of Transformers when applied to sequences of discrete symbols, token-based world models (TBWMs) were recently proposed as sample-efficient methods. In TBWMs, the world model consumes agent experience as a language-like sequence of tokens, where each observation constitutes a sub-sequence. However, during imagination, the sequential token-by-token generation of next observations results in a severe bottleneck, leading to long training times, poor GPU utilization, and limited representations. To resolve this bottleneck, we devise a novel Parallel Observation Prediction (POP) mechanism. POP augments a Retentive Network (RetNet) with a novel forward mode tailored to our reinforcement learning setting. We incorporate POP in a novel TBWM agent named REM (Retentive Environment Model), showcasing a 15.4x faster imagination compared to prior TBWMs. REM attains superhuman performance on 12 out of 26 games of the Atari 100K benchmark, while training in less than 12 hours. Our code is available at \url{//github.com/leor-c/REM}.

We leverage the Multiplicative Weight Update (MWU) method to develop a decentralized algorithm that significantly improves the performance of dynamic time division duplexing (D-TDD) in small cell networks. The proposed algorithm adaptively adjusts the time portion allocated to uplink (UL) and downlink (DL) transmissions at every node during each scheduled time slot, aligning the packet transmissions toward the most appropriate link directions according to the feedback of signal-to-interference ratio information. Our simulation results reveal that compared to the (conventional) fixed configuration of UL/DL transmission probabilities in D-TDD, incorporating MWU into D-TDD brings about a two-fold improvement of mean packet throughput in the DL and a three-fold improvement of the same performance metric in the UL, resulting in the D-TDD even outperforming Static-TDD in the UL. It also shows that the proposed scheme maintains a consistent performance gain in the presence of an ascending traffic load, validating its effectiveness in boosting the network performance. This work also demonstrates an approach that accounts for algorithmic considerations at the forefront when solving stochastic problems.

Modeling the correlations among errors is closely associated with how accurately the model can quantify predictive uncertainty in probabilistic time series forecasting. Recent multivariate models have made significant progress in accounting for contemporaneous correlations among errors, while a common assumption on these errors is that they are temporally independent for the sake of statistical simplicity. However, real-world observations often deviate from this assumption, since errors usually exhibit substantial autocorrelation due to various factors such as the exclusion of temporally correlated covariates. In this work, we propose an efficient method, based on a low-rank-plus-diagonal parameterization of the covariance matrix, which can effectively characterize the autocorrelation of errors. The proposed method possesses several desirable properties: the complexity does not scale with the number of time series, the resulting covariance can be used for calibrating predictions, and it can seamlessly integrate with any model with Gaussian-distributed errors. We empirically demonstrate these properties using two distinct neural forecasting models-GPVar and Transformer. Our experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our method in enhancing predictive accuracy and the quality of uncertainty quantification on multiple real-world datasets.

Direct alignment from preferences (DAP) methods, such as DPO, have recently emerged as efficient alternatives to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), that do not require a separate reward model. However, the preference datasets used in DAP methods are usually collected ahead of training and never updated, thus the feedback is purely offline. Moreover, responses in these datasets are often sampled from a language model distinct from the one being aligned, and since the model evolves over training, the alignment phase is inevitably off-policy. In this study, we posit that online feedback is key and improves DAP methods. Our method, online AI feedback (OAIF), uses an LLM as annotator: on each training iteration, we sample two responses from the current model and prompt the LLM annotator to choose which one is preferred, thus providing online feedback. Despite its simplicity, we demonstrate via human evaluation in several tasks that OAIF outperforms both offline DAP and RLHF methods. We further show that the feedback leveraged in OAIF is easily controllable, via instruction prompts to the LLM annotator.

High-dimensional problems have long been considered the Achilles' heel of Bayesian optimization algorithms. Spurred by the curse of dimensionality, a large collection of algorithms aim to make it more performant in this setting, commonly by imposing various simplifying assumptions on the objective. In this paper, we identify the degeneracies that make vanilla Bayesian optimization poorly suited to high-dimensional tasks, and further show how existing algorithms address these degeneracies through the lens of lowering the model complexity. Moreover, we propose an enhancement to the prior assumptions that are typical to vanilla Bayesian optimization algorithms, which reduces the complexity to manageable levels without imposing structural restrictions on the objective. Our modification - a simple scaling of the Gaussian process lengthscale prior with the dimensionality - reveals that standard Bayesian optimization works drastically better than previously thought in high dimensions, clearly outperforming existing state-of-the-art algorithms on multiple commonly considered real-world high-dimensional tasks.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.