Attack trees are an important tool in security analysis, and an important part of attack tree analysis is computing metrics. This paper focuses on dynamic attack trees and their min time metric. For general attack trees, calculating min time efficiently is an open problem, with the fastest current method being enumerating all minimal attacks, which is NP-hard. This paper introduces 3 new tools for calculating min time. First, we show that static attack trees can be handled by a fast bottom-up algorithm. Second, we introduce a novel method for general dynamic attack trees based on mixed integer linear programming. Third, we show how the computation can be sped up by identifying the modules of an attack tree, i.e. subtrees connected to the rest of the attack tree via only one node. Experiments on a generated testing set of large attack trees verify that these methods have a large impact on performance.
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Efficient contact tracing and isolation is an effective strategy to control epidemics. It was used effectively during the Ebola epidemic and successfully implemented in several parts of the world during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An important consideration in contact tracing is the budget on the number of individuals asked to quarantine -- the budget is limited for socioeconomic reasons. In this paper, we present a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to formulate the problem of using contact tracing to reduce the size of an outbreak while asking a limited number of people to quarantine. We formulate each step of the MDP as a combinatorial problem, MinExposed, which we demonstrate is NP-Hard; as a result, we develop an LP-based approximation algorithm. Though this algorithm directly solves MinExposed, it is often impractical in the real world due to information constraints. To this end, we develop a greedy approach based on insights from the analysis of the previous algorithm, which we show is more interpretable. A key feature of the greedy algorithm is that it does not need complete information of the underlying social contact network. This makes the heuristic implementable in practice and is an important consideration. Finally, we carry out experiments on simulations of the MDP run on real-world networks, and show how the algorithms can help in bending the epidemic curve while limiting the number of isolated individuals. Our experimental results demonstrate that the greedy algorithm and its variants are especially effective, robust, and practical in a variety of realistic scenarios, such as when the contact graph and specific transmission probabilities are not known. All code can be found in our GitHub repository: //github.com/gzli929/ContactTracing.
We study the dynamics of a neural network in function space when optimizing the mean squared error via gradient flow. We show that in the underparameterized regime the network learns eigenfunctions of an integral operator $T_{K^\infty}$ determined by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) at rates corresponding to their eigenvalues. For example, for uniformly distributed data on the sphere $S^{d - 1}$ and rotation invariant weight distributions, the eigenfunctions of $T_{K^\infty}$ are the spherical harmonics. Our results can be understood as describing a spectral bias in the underparameterized regime. The proofs use the concept of "Damped Deviations", where deviations of the NTK matter less for eigendirections with large eigenvalues due to the occurence of a damping factor. Aside from the underparameterized regime, the damped deviations point-of-view can be used to track the dynamics of the empirical risk in the overparameterized setting, allowing us to extend certain results in the literature. We conclude that damped deviations offers a simple and unifying perspective of the dynamics when optimizing the squared error.
Adversarial attacks can generate adversarial inputs by applying small but intentionally worst-case perturbations to samples from the dataset, which leads to even state-of-the-art deep neural networks outputting incorrect answers with high confidence. Hence, some adversarial defense techniques are developed to improve the security and robustness of the models and avoid them being attacked. Gradually, a game-like competition between attackers and defenders formed, in which both players would attempt to play their best strategies against each other while maximizing their own payoffs. To solve the game, each player would choose an optimal strategy against the opponent based on the prediction of the opponent's strategy choice. In this work, we are on the defensive side to apply game-theoretic approaches on defending against attacks. We use two randomization methods, random initialization and stochastic activation pruning, to create diversity of networks. Furthermore, we use one denoising technique, super resolution, to improve models' robustness by preprocessing images before attacks. Our experimental results indicate that those three methods can effectively improve the robustness of deep-learning neural networks.
The popularity of Bayesian statistical methods has increased dramatically in recent years across many research areas and industrial applications. This is the result of a variety of methodological advances with faster and cheaper hardware as well as the development of new software tools. Here we introduce an open source Python package named Bambi (BAyesian Model Building Interface) that is built on top of the PyMC probabilistic programming framework and the ArviZ package for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. Bambi makes it easy to specify complex generalized linear hierarchical models using a formula notation similar to those found in R. We demonstrate Bambi's versatility and ease of use with a few examples spanning a range of common statistical models including multiple regression, logistic regression, and mixed-effects modeling with crossed group specific effects. Additionally we discuss how automatic priors are constructed. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of our plans for the future development of Bambi.
Applications running in geographically distributed setting are becoming prevalent. Large-scale online services often share or replicate their data into multiple data centers (DCs) in different geographic regions. Driven by the data communication need of these applications, inter-datacenter network (IDN) is getting increasingly important. However, we find congestion control for inter-datacenter networks quite challenging. Firstly, the inter-datacenter communication involves both data center networks (DCNs) and wide-area networks (WANs) connecting multiple data centers. Such a network environment presents quite heterogeneous characteristics (e.g., buffer depths, RTTs). Existing congestion control mechanisms consider either DCN or WAN congestion, while not simultaneously capturing the degree of congestion for both. Secondly, to reduce evolution cost and improve flexibility, large enterprises have been building and deploying their wide-area routers based on shallow-buffered switching chips. However, with legacy congestion control mechanisms (e.g., TCP Cubic), shallow buffer can easily get overwhelmed by large BDP (bandwidth-delay product) wide-area traffic, leading to high packet losses and degraded throughput. This thesis describes my research efforts on optimizing congestion control mechanisms for the inter-datacenter networks. First, we design GEMINI - a practical congestion control mechanism that simultaneously handles congestions both in DCN andWAN. Second, we present FlashPass - a proactive congestion control mechanism that achieves near zero loss without degrading throughput under the shallow-buffered WAN. Extensive evaluation shows their superior performance over existing congestion control mechanisms.
We present a new behavioural distance over the state space of a Markov decision process, and demonstrate the use of this distance as an effective means of shaping the learnt representations of deep reinforcement learning agents. While existing notions of state similarity are typically difficult to learn at scale due to high computational cost and lack of sample-based algorithms, our newly-proposed distance addresses both of these issues. In addition to providing detailed theoretical analysis, we provide empirical evidence that learning this distance alongside the value function yields structured and informative representations, including strong results on the Arcade Learning Environment benchmark.
The collective attention on online items such as web pages, search terms, and videos reflects trends that are of social, cultural, and economic interest. Moreover, attention trends of different items exhibit mutual influence via mechanisms such as hyperlinks or recommendations. Many visualisation tools exist for time series, network evolution, or network influence; however, few systems connect all three. In this work, we present AttentionFlow, a new system to visualise networks of time series and the dynamic influence they have on one another. Centred around an ego node, our system simultaneously presents the time series on each node using two visual encodings: a tree ring for an overview and a line chart for details. AttentionFlow supports interactions such as overlaying time series of influence and filtering neighbours by time or flux. We demonstrate AttentionFlow using two real-world datasets, VevoMusic and WikiTraffic. We show that attention spikes in songs can be explained by external events such as major awards, or changes in the network such as the release of a new song. Separate case studies also demonstrate how an artist's influence changes over their career, and that correlated Wikipedia traffic is driven by cultural interests. More broadly, AttentionFlow can be generalised to visualise networks of time series on physical infrastructures such as road networks, or natural phenomena such as weather and geological measurements.
Adversarial attack is a technique for deceiving Machine Learning (ML) models, which provides a way to evaluate the adversarial robustness. In practice, attack algorithms are artificially selected and tuned by human experts to break a ML system. However, manual selection of attackers tends to be sub-optimal, leading to a mistakenly assessment of model security. In this paper, a new procedure called Composite Adversarial Attack (CAA) is proposed for automatically searching the best combination of attack algorithms and their hyper-parameters from a candidate pool of \textbf{32 base attackers}. We design a search space where attack policy is represented as an attacking sequence, i.e., the output of the previous attacker is used as the initialization input for successors. Multi-objective NSGA-II genetic algorithm is adopted for finding the strongest attack policy with minimum complexity. The experimental result shows CAA beats 10 top attackers on 11 diverse defenses with less elapsed time (\textbf{6 $\times$ faster than AutoAttack}), and achieves the new state-of-the-art on $l_{\infty}$, $l_{2}$ and unrestricted adversarial attacks.
Interpretation of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) training as an optimal control problem with nonlinear dynamical systems has received considerable attention recently, yet the algorithmic development remains relatively limited. In this work, we make an attempt along this line by reformulating the training procedure from the trajectory optimization perspective. We first show that most widely-used algorithms for training DNNs can be linked to the Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP), a celebrated second-order trajectory optimization algorithm rooted in the Approximate Dynamic Programming. In this vein, we propose a new variant of DDP that can accept batch optimization for training feedforward networks, while integrating naturally with the recent progress in curvature approximation. The resulting algorithm features layer-wise feedback policies which improve convergence rate and reduce sensitivity to hyper-parameter over existing methods. We show that the algorithm is competitive against state-ofthe-art first and second order methods. Our work opens up new avenues for principled algorithmic design built upon the optimal control theory.
When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.
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