We consider parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs) that are augmented with unknown probability distributions over parameter values. The problem is to compute the probability to satisfy a temporal logic specification within any concrete MDP that corresponds to a sample from these distributions. As this problem is infeasible to solve precisely, we resort to sampling techniques that exploit the so-called scenario approach. Based on a finite number of samples of the parameters, the proposed method yields high-confidence bounds on the probability of satisfying the specification. The number of samples required to obtain a high confidence on these bounds is independent of the number of states and the number of random parameters. Experiments on a large set of benchmarks show that several thousand samples suffice to obtain tight and high-confidence lower and upper bounds on the satisfaction probability.
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The problem of Byzantine consensus has been key to designing secure distributed systems. However, it is particularly difficult, mainly due to the presence of Byzantine processes that act arbitrarily and the unknown message delays in general networks. Although it is well known that both safety and liveness are at risk as soon as $n/3$ Byzantine processes fail, very few works attempted to characterize precisely the faults that produce safety violations from the faults that produce termination violations. In this paper, we present a new lower bound on the solvability of the consensus problem by distinguishing deceitful faults violating safety and benign faults violating termination from the more general Byzantine faults, in what we call the Byzantine-deceitful-benign fault model. We show that one cannot solve consensus if $n\leq 3t+d+2q$ with $t$ Byzantine processes, $d$ deceitful processes, and $q$ benign processes. In addition, we show that this bound is tight by presenting the Basilic class of consensus protocols that solve consensus when $n > 3t+d+2q$. These protocols differ in the number of processes from which they wait to receive messages before progressing. Each of these protocols is thus better suited for some applications depending on the predominance of benign or deceitful faults. Finally, we study the fault tolerance of the Basilic class of consensus protocols in the context of blockchains that need to solve the weaker problem of eventual consensus. We demonstrate that Basilic solves this problem with only $n > 2t+d+q$, hence demonstrating how it can strengthen blockchain security.
The problem of continuous inverse optimal control (over finite time horizon) is to learn the unknown cost function over the sequence of continuous control variables from expert demonstrations. In this article, we study this fundamental problem in the framework of energy-based model, where the observed expert trajectories are assumed to be random samples from a probability density function defined as the exponential of the negative cost function up to a normalizing constant. The parameters of the cost function are learned by maximum likelihood via an "analysis by synthesis" scheme, which iterates (1) synthesis step: sample the synthesized trajectories from the current probability density using the Langevin dynamics via back-propagation through time, and (2) analysis step: update the model parameters based on the statistical difference between the synthesized trajectories and the observed trajectories. Given the fact that an efficient optimization algorithm is usually available for an optimal control problem, we also consider a convenient approximation of the above learning method, where we replace the sampling in the synthesis step by optimization. Moreover, to make the sampling or optimization more efficient, we propose to train the energy-based model simultaneously with a top-down trajectory generator via cooperative learning, where the trajectory generator is used to fast initialize the synthesis step of the energy-based model. We demonstrate the proposed methods on autonomous driving tasks, and show that they can learn suitable cost functions for optimal control.
The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.
Classification methods for binary (yes/no) tasks often produce a continuously valued score. Machine learning practitioners must perform model selection, calibration, discretization, performance assessment, tuning, and fairness assessment. Such tasks involve examining classifier results, typically using summary statistics and manual examination of details. In this paper, we provide an interactive visualization approach to support such continuously-valued classifier examination tasks. Our approach addresses the three phases of these tasks: calibration, operating point selection, and examination. We enhance standard views and introduce task-specific views so that they can be integrated into a multi-view coordination (MVC) system. We build on an existing comparison-based approach, extending it to continuous classifiers by treating the continuous values as trinary (positive, unsure, negative) even if the classifier will not ultimately use the 3-way classification. We provide use cases that demonstrate how our approach enables machine learning practitioners to accomplish key tasks.
The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, leading to concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address this concern, we introduce a new class of g-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and asymptotically normal for the causal effect of interest provided that a set of at least $\gamma$ out of $K$ candidate instruments are valid, for $\gamma\leq K$ set by the analyst ex ante, without necessarily knowing the identities of the valid and invalid instruments. We provide formal semiparametric efficiency theory supporting our results. Both simulation studies and applications to the UK Biobank data demonstrate the superior empirical performance of our estimators compared to competing methods.
While the theoretical analysis of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) has made significant progress for pseudo-Boolean optimization problems in the last 25 years, only sporadic theoretical results exist on how EAs solve permutation-based problems. To overcome the lack of permutation-based benchmark problems, we propose a general way to transfer the classic pseudo-Boolean benchmarks into benchmarks defined on sets of permutations. We then conduct a rigorous runtime analysis of the permutation-based $(1+1)$ EA proposed by Scharnow, Tinnefeld, and Wegener (2004) on the analogues of the \textsc{LeadingOnes} and \textsc{Jump} benchmarks. The latter shows that, different from bit-strings, it is not only the Hamming distance that determines how difficult it is to mutate a permutation $\sigma$ into another one $\tau$, but also the precise cycle structure of $\sigma \tau^{-1}$. For this reason, we also regard the more symmetric scramble mutation operator. We observe that it not only leads to simpler proofs, but also reduces the runtime on jump functions with odd jump size by a factor of $\Theta(n)$. Finally, we show that a heavy-tailed version of the scramble operator, as in the bit-string case, leads to a speed-up of order $m^{\Theta(m)}$ on jump functions with jump size~$m$.%
It has long been observed that the performance of evolutionary algorithms and other randomized search heuristics can benefit from a non-static choice of the parameters that steer their optimization behavior. Mechanisms that identify suitable configurations on the fly ("parameter control") or via a dedicated training process ("dynamic algorithm configuration") are therefore an important component of modern evolutionary computation frameworks. Several approaches to address the dynamic parameter setting problem exist, but we barely understand which ones to prefer for which applications. As in classical benchmarking, problem collections with a known ground truth can offer very meaningful insights in this context. Unfortunately, settings with well-understood control policies are very rare. One of the few exceptions for which we know which parameter settings minimize the expected runtime is the LeadingOnes problem. We extend this benchmark by analyzing optimal control policies that can select the parameters only from a given portfolio of possible values. This also allows us to compute optimal parameter portfolios of a given size. We demonstrate the usefulness of our benchmarks by analyzing the behavior of the DDQN reinforcement learning approach for dynamic algorithm configuration.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
Maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a standard approach to imbalanced classification. So far, various supervised AUC optimization methods have been developed and they are also extended to semi-supervised scenarios to cope with small sample problems. However, existing semi-supervised AUC optimization methods rely on strong distributional assumptions, which are rarely satisfied in real-world problems. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised AUC optimization method that does not require such restrictive assumptions. We first develop an AUC optimization method based only on positive and unlabeled data (PU-AUC) and then extend it to semi-supervised learning by combining it with a supervised AUC optimization method. We theoretically prove that, without the restrictive distributional assumptions, unlabeled data contribute to improving the generalization performance in PU and semi-supervised AUC optimization methods. Finally, we demonstrate the practical usefulness of the proposed methods through experiments.
Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.
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