CoVaR (conditional value-at-risk) is a crucial measure for assessing financial systemic risk, which is defined as a conditional quantile of a random variable, conditioned on other random variables reaching specific quantiles. It enables the measurement of risk associated with a particular node in financial networks, taking into account the simultaneous influence of risks from multiple correlated nodes. However, estimating CoVaR presents challenges due to the unobservability of the multivariate-quantiles condition. To address the challenges, we propose a two-step nonparametric estimation approach based on Monte-Carlo simulation data. In the first step, we estimate the unobservable multivariate-quantiles using order statistics. In the second step, we employ a kernel method to estimate the conditional quantile conditional on the order statistics. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the two-step estimator, along with a bandwidth selection method. The results demonstrate that, under a mild restriction on the bandwidth, the estimation error arising from the first step can be ignored. Consequently, the asymptotic results depend solely on the estimation error of the second step, as if the multivariate-quantiles in the condition were observable. Numerical experiments demonstrate the favorable performance of the two-step estimator.
With the growing use of machine learning (ML) models in critical domains such as finance and healthcare, the need to offer recourse for those adversely affected by the decisions of ML models has become more important; individuals ought to be provided with recommendations on actions to take for improving their situation and thus receiving a favorable decision. Prior work on sequential algorithmic recourse -- which recommends a series of changes -- focuses on action feasibility and uses the proximity of feature changes to determine action costs. However, the uncertainties of feature changes and the risk of higher than average costs in recourse have not been considered. It is undesirable if a recourse could (with some probability) result in a worse situation from which recovery requires an extremely high cost. It is essential to incorporate risks when computing and evaluating recourse. We call the recourse computed with such risk considerations as Safer Algorithmic Recourse (SafeAR). The objective is to empower people to choose a recourse based on their risk tolerance. In this work, we discuss and show how existing recourse desiderata can fail to capture the risk of higher costs. We present a method to compute recourse policies that consider variability in cost and connect algorithmic recourse literature with risk-sensitive reinforcement learning. We also adopt measures "Value at Risk" and "Conditional Value at Risk" from the financial literature to summarize risk concisely. We apply our method to two real-world datasets and compare policies with different risk-aversion levels using risk measures and recourse desiderata (sparsity and proximity).
Shortcut reasoning is an irrational process of inference, which degrades the robustness of an NLP model. While a number of previous work has tackled the identification of shortcut reasoning, there are still two major limitations: (i) a method for quantifying the severity of the discovered shortcut reasoning is not provided; (ii) certain types of shortcut reasoning may be missed. To address these issues, we propose a novel method for identifying shortcut reasoning. The proposed method quantifies the severity of the shortcut reasoning by leveraging out-of-distribution data and does not make any assumptions about the type of tokens triggering the shortcut reasoning. Our experiments on Natural Language Inference and Sentiment Analysis demonstrate that our framework successfully discovers known and unknown shortcut reasoning in the previous work.
The state of the art in 3D object detection using sensor fusion heavily relies on calibration quality, which is difficult to maintain in large scale deployment outside a lab environment. We present the first calibration-free approach for 3D object detection. Thus, eliminating the need for complex and costly calibration procedures. Our approach uses transformers to map the features between multiple views of different sensors at multiple abstraction levels. In an extensive evaluation for object detection, we not only show that our approach outperforms single modal setups by 14.1% in BEV mAP, but also that the transformer indeed learns mapping. By showing calibration is not necessary for sensor fusion, we hope to motivate other researchers following the direction of calibration-free fusion. Additionally, resulting approaches have a substantial resilience against rotation and translation changes.
Recently, permissioned blockchain has been extensively explored in various fields, such as asset management, supply chain, healthcare, and many others. Many scholars are dedicated to improving its verifiability, scalability, and performance based on sharding techniques, including grouping nodes and handling cross-shard transactions. However, they ignore the node vulnerability problem, i.e., there is no guarantee that nodes will not be maliciously controlled throughout their life cycle. Facing this challenge, we propose RecAGT, a novel identification scheme aimed at reducing communication overhead and identifying potential malicious nodes. First, shard testable codes are designed to encode the original data in case of a leak of confidential data. Second, a new identity proof protocol is presented as evidence against malicious behavior. Finally, adaptive group testing is chosen to identify malicious nodes. Notably, our work focuses on the internal operation within the committee and can thus be applied to any sharding permissioned blockchains. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme can effectively identify malicious nodes with low communication and computational costs.
Human intelligence thrives on the concept of cognitive synergy, where collaboration and information integration among different cognitive processes yield superior outcomes compared to individual cognitive processes in isolation. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance as general task-solving agents, they still struggle with tasks that require intensive domain knowledge and complex reasoning. In this work, we propose Solo Performance Prompting (SPP), which transforms a single LLM into a cognitive synergist by engaging in multi-turn self-collaboration with multiple personas. A cognitive synergist refers to an intelligent agent that collaborates with multiple minds, combining their individual strengths and knowledge, to enhance problem-solving and overall performance in complex tasks. By dynamically identifying and simulating different personas based on task inputs, SPP unleashes the potential of cognitive synergy in LLMs. We have discovered that assigning multiple, fine-grained personas in LLMs elicits better problem-solving abilities compared to using a single or fixed number of personas. We evaluate SPP on three challenging tasks: Trivia Creative Writing, Codenames Collaborative, and Logic Grid Puzzle, encompassing both knowledge-intensive and reasoning-intensive types. Unlike previous works, such as Chain-of-Thought, that solely enhance the reasoning abilities in LLMs, SPP effectively elicits internal knowledge acquisition abilities, reduces hallucination, and maintains strong reasoning capabilities. Code, data, and prompts can be found at: //github.com/MikeWangWZHL/Solo-Performance-Prompting.git.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
Multi-modal fusion is a fundamental task for the perception of an autonomous driving system, which has recently intrigued many researchers. However, achieving a rather good performance is not an easy task due to the noisy raw data, underutilized information, and the misalignment of multi-modal sensors. In this paper, we provide a literature review of the existing multi-modal-based methods for perception tasks in autonomous driving. Generally, we make a detailed analysis including over 50 papers leveraging perception sensors including LiDAR and camera trying to solve object detection and semantic segmentation tasks. Different from traditional fusion methodology for categorizing fusion models, we propose an innovative way that divides them into two major classes, four minor classes by a more reasonable taxonomy in the view of the fusion stage. Moreover, we dive deep into the current fusion methods, focusing on the remaining problems and open-up discussions on the potential research opportunities. In conclusion, what we expect to do in this paper is to present a new taxonomy of multi-modal fusion methods for the autonomous driving perception tasks and provoke thoughts of the fusion-based techniques in the future.
Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.
Sentiment analysis is a widely studied NLP task where the goal is to determine opinions, emotions, and evaluations of users towards a product, an entity or a service that they are reviewing. One of the biggest challenges for sentiment analysis is that it is highly language dependent. Word embeddings, sentiment lexicons, and even annotated data are language specific. Further, optimizing models for each language is very time consuming and labor intensive especially for recurrent neural network models. From a resource perspective, it is very challenging to collect data for different languages. In this paper, we look for an answer to the following research question: can a sentiment analysis model trained on a language be reused for sentiment analysis in other languages, Russian, Spanish, Turkish, and Dutch, where the data is more limited? Our goal is to build a single model in the language with the largest dataset available for the task, and reuse it for languages that have limited resources. For this purpose, we train a sentiment analysis model using recurrent neural networks with reviews in English. We then translate reviews in other languages and reuse this model to evaluate the sentiments. Experimental results show that our robust approach of single model trained on English reviews statistically significantly outperforms the baselines in several different languages.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.