To meet order fulfillment targets, manufacturers seek to optimize production schedules. Machine learning can support this objective by predicting throughput times on production lines given order specifications. However, this is challenging when manufacturers produce customized products because customization often leads to changes in the probability distribution of operational data -- so-called distributional shifts. Distributional shifts can harm the performance of predictive models when deployed to future customer orders with new specifications. The literature provides limited advice on how such distributional shifts can be addressed in operations management. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on adversarial learning and job shop scheduling, which allows us to account for distributional shifts in manufacturing settings with high degrees of product customization. We empirically validate our proposed approach using real-world data from a job shop production that supplies large metal components to an oil platform construction yard. Across an extensive series of numerical experiments, we find that our adversarial learning approach outperforms common baselines. Overall, this paper shows how production managers can improve their decision-making under distributional shifts.
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Driving automation holds significant potential for enhancing traffic safety. However, effectively handling interactions with human drivers in mixed traffic remains a challenging task. Several models exist that attempt to capture human behavior in traffic interactions, often focusing on gap acceptance. However, it is not clear how models of an individual driver's gap acceptance can be translated to dynamic human-AV interactions in the context of high-speed scenarios like overtaking. In this study, we address this issue by employing a cognitive process approach to describe the dynamic interactions by the oncoming vehicle during overtaking maneuvers. Our findings reveal that by incorporating an initial decision-making bias dependent on the initial velocity into existing drift-diffusion models, we can accurately describe the qualitative patterns of overtaking gap acceptance observed previously. Our results demonstrate the potential of the cognitive process approach in modeling human overtaking behavior when the oncoming vehicle is an AV. To this end, this study contributes to the development of effective strategies for ensuring safe and efficient overtaking interactions between human drivers and AVs.
Though Self-supervised learning (SSL) has been widely studied as a promising technique for representation learning, it doesn't generalize well on long-tailed datasets due to the majority classes dominating the feature space. Recent work shows that the long-tailed learning performance could be boosted by sampling extra in-domain (ID) data for self-supervised training, however, large-scale ID data which can rebalance the minority classes are expensive to collect. In this paper, we propose an alternative but easy-to-use and effective solution, Contrastive with Out-of-distribution (OOD) data for Long-Tail learning (COLT), which can effectively exploit OOD data to dynamically re-balance the feature space. We empirically identify the counter-intuitive usefulness of OOD samples in SSL long-tailed learning and principally design a novel SSL method. Concretely, we first localize the `head' and `tail' samples by assigning a tailness score to each OOD sample based on its neighborhoods in the feature space. Then, we propose an online OOD sampling strategy to dynamically re-balance the feature space. Finally, we enforce the model to be capable of distinguishing ID and OOD samples by a distribution-level supervised contrastive loss. Extensive experiments are conducted on various datasets and several state-of-the-art SSL frameworks to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that our method significantly improves the performance of SSL on long-tailed datasets by a large margin, and even outperforms previous work which uses external ID data. Our code is available at //github.com/JianhongBai/COLT.
Many real-world recognition problems are characterized by long-tailed label distributions. These distributions make representation learning highly challenging due to limited generalization over the tail classes. If the test distribution differs from the training distribution, e.g. uniform versus long-tailed, the problem of the distribution shift needs to be addressed. A recent line of work proposes learning multiple diverse experts to tackle this issue. Ensemble diversity is encouraged by various techniques, e.g. by specializing different experts in the head and the tail classes. In this work, we take an analytical approach and extend the notion of logit adjustment to ensembles to form a Balanced Product of Experts (BalPoE). BalPoE combines a family of experts with different test-time target distributions, generalizing several previous approaches. We show how to properly define these distributions and combine the experts in order to achieve unbiased predictions, by proving that the ensemble is Fisher-consistent for minimizing the balanced error. Our theoretical analysis shows that our balanced ensemble requires calibrated experts, which we achieve in practice using mixup. We conduct extensive experiments and our method obtains new state-of-the-art results on three long-tailed datasets: CIFAR-100-LT, ImageNet-LT, and iNaturalist-2018. Our code is available at //github.com/emasa/BalPoE-CalibratedLT.
Various human activities can be abstracted into a sequence of actions in natural text, i.e. cooking, repairing, manufacturing, etc. Such action sequences heavily depend on the executing order, while disorder in action sequences leads to failure of further task execution by robots or AI agents. Therefore, to verify the order reasoning capability of current neural models in sequential tasks, we propose a challenging benchmark , named STEPS. STEPS involves two subtask settings, focusing on determining the rationality of given next step in recipes and selecting the reasonable step from the multi-choice question, respectively. We describe the data construction and task formulations, and benchmark most of significant Large Language Models (LLMs). The experimental results demonstrate 1) The commonsense reasoning of action orders in sequential tasks are challenging to resolve via zero-shot prompting or few-shot in-context learning for LLMs; 2) Prompting method still significantly lags behind tuning-based method on STEPS.
Opinion summarisation is a task that aims to condense the information presented in the source documents while retaining the core message and opinions. A summary that only represents the majority opinions will leave the minority opinions unrepresented in the summary. In this paper, we use the stance towards a certain target as an opinion. We study bias in opinion summarisation from the perspective of opinion diversity, which measures whether the model generated summary can cover a diverse set of opinions. In addition, we examine opinion similarity, a measure of how closely related two opinions are in terms of their stance on a given topic, and its relationship with opinion diversity. Through the lens of stances towards a topic, we examine opinion diversity and similarity using three debatable topics under COVID-19. Experimental results on these topics revealed that a higher degree of similarity of opinions did not indicate good diversity or fairly cover the various opinions originally presented in the source documents. We found that BART and ChatGPT can better capture diverse opinions presented in the source documents.
U-statistics play central roles in many statistical learning tools but face the haunting issue of scalability. Significant efforts have been devoted into accelerating computation by U-statistic reduction. However, existing results almost exclusively focus on power analysis, while little work addresses risk control accuracy -- comparatively, the latter requires distinct and much more challenging techniques. In this paper, we establish the first statistical inference procedure with provably higher-order accurate risk control for incomplete U-statistics. The sharpness of our new result enables us to reveal how risk control accuracy also trades off with speed for the first time in literature, which complements the well-known variance-speed trade-off. Our proposed general framework converts the long-standing challenge of formulating accurate statistical inference procedures for many different designs into a surprisingly routine task. This paper covers non-degenerate and degenerate U-statistics, and network moments. We conducted comprehensive numerical studies and observed results that validate our theory's sharpness. Our method also demonstrates effectiveness on real-world data applications.
Online platforms mediate access to opportunity: relevance-based rankings create and constrain options by allocating exposure to job openings and job candidates in hiring platforms, or sellers in a marketplace. In order to do so responsibly, these socially consequential systems employ various fairness measures and interventions, many of which seek to allocate exposure based on worthiness. Because these constructs are typically not directly observable, platforms must instead resort to using proxy scores such as relevance and infer them from behavioral signals such as searcher clicks. Yet, it remains an open question whether relevance fulfills its role as such a worthiness score in high-stakes fair rankings. In this paper, we combine perspectives and tools from the social sciences, information retrieval, and fairness in machine learning to derive a set of desired criteria that relevance scores should satisfy in order to meaningfully guide fairness interventions. We then empirically show that not all of these criteria are met in a case study of relevance inferred from biased user click data. We assess the impact of these violations on the estimated system fairness and analyze whether existing fairness interventions may mitigate the identified issues. Our analyses and results surface the pressing need for new approaches to relevance collection and generation that are suitable for use in fair ranking.
Adversarial attacks have been proven to be potential threats to Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), and many methods are proposed to defend against adversarial attacks. However, while enhancing the robustness, the clean accuracy will decline to a certain extent, implying a trade-off existed between the accuracy and robustness. In this paper, we firstly empirically find an obvious distinction between standard and robust models in the filters' weight distribution of the same architecture, and then theoretically explain this phenomenon in terms of the gradient regularization, which shows this difference is an intrinsic property for DNNs, and thus a static network architecture is difficult to improve the accuracy and robustness at the same time. Secondly, based on this observation, we propose a sample-wise dynamic network architecture named Adversarial Weight-Varied Network (AW-Net), which focuses on dealing with clean and adversarial examples with a ``divide and rule" weight strategy. The AW-Net dynamically adjusts network's weights based on regulation signals generated by an adversarial detector, which is directly influenced by the input sample. Benefiting from the dynamic network architecture, clean and adversarial examples can be processed with different network weights, which provides the potentiality to enhance the accuracy and robustness simultaneously. A series of experiments demonstrate that our AW-Net is architecture-friendly to handle both clean and adversarial examples and can achieve better trade-off performance than state-of-the-art robust models.
Large-scale administrative or observational datasets are increasingly used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arise as that selection bias and other forms of distribution shift often plague observational data. Previous attempts to provide robust inferences have given guarantees depending on a user-specified amount of possible distribution shift (e.g., the maximum KL divergence between the observed and target distributions). However, decision makers will often have additional knowledge about the target distribution which constrains the kind of shifts which are possible. To leverage such information, we proposed a framework that enables statistical inference in the presence of distribution shifts which obey user-specified constraints in the form of functions whose expectation is known under the target distribution. The output is high-probability bounds on the value an estimand takes on the target distribution. Hence, our method leverages domain knowledge in order to partially identify a wide class of estimands. We analyze the computational and statistical properties of methods to estimate these bounds, and show that our method can produce informative bounds on a variety of simulated and semisynthetic tasks.
The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.
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