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In recent years, large amounts of electronic health records (EHRs) concerning chronic diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, and mental disease, have been collected to facilitate medical diagnosis. Modeling the dynamic properties of EHRs related to chronic diseases can be efficiently done using dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), which are a set of sequential decision rules. While Reinforcement learning (RL) is a widely used method for creating DTRs, there is ongoing research in developing RL algorithms that can effectively handle large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a novel approach, a distributed Q-learning algorithm, for generating DTRs. The novelties of our research are as follows: 1) From a methodological perspective, we present a novel and scalable approach for generating DTRs by combining distributed learning with Q-learning. The proposed approach is specifically designed to handle large amounts of data and effectively generate DTRs. 2) From a theoretical standpoint, we provide generalization error bounds for the proposed distributed Q-learning algorithm, which are derived within the framework of statistical learning theory. These bounds quantify the relationships between sample size, prediction accuracy, and computational burden, providing insights into the performance of the algorithm. 3) From an applied perspective, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed distributed Q-learning algorithm for DTRs by applying it to clinical cancer treatments. The results show that our algorithm outperforms both traditional linear Q-learning and commonly used deep Q-learning in terms of both prediction accuracy and computation cost.

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which manipulations can improve outcomes of interest, and setting coherent mechanisms requires accounting for both predictive accuracy and improvement of the outcome. Typically, these works focus on known causal graphs, consisting only of an outcome and its parents. In this paper, we introduce a general framework in which an outcome and n observed features are related by an arbitrary unknown graph and manipulations are restricted by a fixed budget and cost structure. We develop algorithms that leverage strategic responses to discover the causal graph in a finite number of steps. Given this graph structure, we can then derive mechanisms that trade off between accuracy and improvement. Altogether, our work deepens links between causal discovery and incentive design and provides a more nuanced view of learning under causal strategic prediction.

Negative control is a strategy for learning the causal relationship between treatment and outcome in the presence of unmeasured confounding. The treatment effect can nonetheless be identified if two auxiliary variables are available: a negative control treatment (which has no effect on the actual outcome), and a negative control outcome (which is not affected by the actual treatment). These auxiliary variables can also be viewed as proxies for a traditional set of control variables, and they bear resemblance to instrumental variables. I propose a family of algorithms based on kernel ridge regression for learning nonparametric treatment effects with negative controls. Examples include dose response curves, dose response curves with distribution shift, and heterogeneous treatment effects. Data may be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. I prove uniform consistency and provide finite sample rates of convergence. I estimate the dose response curve of cigarette smoking on infant birth weight adjusting for unobserved confounding due to household income, using a data set of singleton births in the state of Pennsylvania between 1989 and 1991.

Latent Class Choice Models (LCCM) are extensions of discrete choice models (DCMs) that capture unobserved heterogeneity in the choice process by segmenting the population based on the assumption of preference similarities. We present a method of efficiently incorporating attitudinal indicators in the specification of LCCM, by introducing Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to formulate latent variables constructs. This formulation overcomes structural equations in its capability of exploring the relationship between the attitudinal indicators and the decision choice, given the Machine Learning (ML) flexibility and power in capturing unobserved and complex behavioural features, such as attitudes and beliefs. All of this while still maintaining the consistency of the theoretical assumptions presented in the Generalized Random Utility model and the interpretability of the estimated parameters. We test our proposed framework for estimating a Car-Sharing (CS) service subscription choice with stated preference data from Copenhagen, Denmark. The results show that our proposed approach provides a complete and realistic segmentation, which helps design better policies.

Real-world complex network systems often experience changes over time, and controlling their state has important applications in various fields. While external control signals can drive static networks to a desired state, dynamic networks have varying topologies that require changes to the driver nodes for maintaining control. Most existing approaches require knowledge of topological changes in advance to compute optimal control schemes. However, obtaining such knowledge can be difficult for many real-world dynamic networks. To address this issue, we propose a novel real-time control optimization algorithm called Dynamic Optimal Control (DOC) that predicts node control importance using historical information to minimize control scheme changes and reduce overall control cost. We design an efficient algorithm that fine-tunes the current control scheme by repairing past maximum matching to respond to changes in the network topology. Our experiments on real and synthetic dynamic networks show that DOC significantly reduces control cost and achieves more stable and focused real-time control schemes compared to traditional algorithms. The proposed algorithm has the potential to provide solutions for real-time control of complex dynamic systems in various fields.

In mechanism design, it is challenging to design the optimal auction with correlated values in general settings. Although value distribution can be further exploited to improve revenue, the complex correlation structure makes it hard to acquire in practice. Data-driven auction mechanisms, powered by machine learning, enable to design auctions directly from historical auction data, without relying on specific value distributions. In this work, we design a learning-based auction, which can encode the correlation of values into the rank score of each bidder, and further adjust the ranking rule to approach the optimal revenue. We strictly guarantee the property of strategy-proofness by encoding game theoretical conditions into the neural network structure. Furthermore, all operations in the designed auctions are differentiable to enable an end-to-end training paradigm. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed auction mechanism can represent almost any strategy-proof auction mechanism, and outperforms the auction mechanisms wildly used in the correlated value settings.

With the growth of networks, promoting products through social networks has become an important problem. For auctions in social networks, items are needed to be sold to agents in a network, where each agent can bid and also diffuse the sale information to her neighbors. Thus, the agents' social relations are intervened with their bids in the auctions. In network auctions, the classical VCG mechanism fails to retain key properties. In order to better understand network auctions, in this paper, we characterize network auctions for the single-unit setting with respect to IR, WBB, IC, SWM, and other properties. For example, we present sufficient conditions for mechanisms to be social welfare maximizing and (weakly) incentive compatible. With the help of these properties and new concepts such as rewards, participation rewards, and so on, we show how to design SWM mechanisms to satisfy IC as much as possible, and IC mechanisms to maximize the revenue. Our results provide insights into understanding auctions in social networks.

Identifiability of discrete statistical models with latent variables is known to be challenging to study, yet crucial to a model's interpretability and reliability. This work presents a general algebraic technique to investigate identifiability of complicated discrete models with latent and graphical components. Specifically, motivated by diagnostic tests collecting multivariate categorical data, we focus on discrete models with multiple binary latent variables. In the considered model, the latent variables can have arbitrary dependencies among themselves while the latent-to-observed measurement graph takes a "star-forest" shape. We establish necessary and sufficient graphical criteria for identifiability, and reveal an interesting and perhaps surprising phenomenon of blessing-of-dependence geometry: under the minimal conditions for generic identifiability, the parameters are identifiable if and only if the latent variables are not statistically independent. Thanks to this theory, we can perform formal hypothesis tests of identifiability in the boundary case by testing certain marginal independence of the observed variables. Our results give new understanding of statistical properties of graphical models with latent variables. They also entail useful implications for designing diagnostic tests or surveys that measure binary latent traits.

Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.