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In this paper, we develop an approach of global sensitivity analysis for compartmental models based on continuous-time Markov chains. We propose to measure the sensitivity of quantities of interest by representing the Markov chain as a deterministic function of the uncertain parameters and a random variable with known distribution modeling intrinsic randomness. This representation is exact and does not rely on meta-modeling. An application to a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model is included to illustrate the practical impact of our approach.

Many applications, such as system identification, classification of time series, direct and inverse problems in partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification lead to the question of approximation of a non-linear operator between metric spaces $\mathfrak{X}$ and $\mathfrak{Y}$. We study the problem of determining the degree of approximation of a such operators on a compact subset $K_\mathfrak{X}\subset \mathfrak{X}$ using a finite amount of information. If $\mathcal{F}: K_\mathfrak{X}\to K_\mathfrak{Y}$, a well established strategy to approximate $\mathcal{F}(F)$ for some $F\in K_\mathfrak{X}$ is to encode $F$ (respectively, $\mathcal{F}(F)$) in terms of a finite number $d$ (repectively $m$) of real numbers. Together with appropriate reconstruction algorithms (decoders), the problem reduces to the approximation of $m$ functions on a compact subset of a high dimensional Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$, equivalently, the unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^d$ embedded in $\mathbb{R}^{d+1}$. The problem is challenging because $d$, $m$, as well as the complexity of the approximation on $\mathbb{S}^d$ are all large, and it is necessary to estimate the accuracy keeping track of the inter-dependence of all the approximations involved. In this paper, we establish constructive methods to do this efficiently; i.e., with the constants involved in the estimates on the approximation on $\\mathbb{S}^d$ being $\mathcal{O}(d^{1/6})$. We study different smoothness classes for the operators, and also propose a method for approximation of $\mathcal{F}(F)$ using only information in a small neighborhood of $F$, resulting in an effective reduction in the number of parameters involved. To further mitigate the problem of large number of parameters, we propose prefabricated networks, resulting in a substantially smaller number of effective parameters.

The study of generalising the central difference for integer order Laplacian to fractional order is discussed in this paper. Analysis shows that, in contrary to the conclusion of a previous study, difference stencils evaluated through fast Fourier transform prevents the convergence of the solution of fractional Laplacian. We propose a composite quadrature rule in order to efficiently evaluate the stencil coefficients with the required convergence rate in order to guarantee convergence of the solution. Furthermore, we propose the use of generalised higher order lattice Boltzmann method to generate stencils which can approximate fractional Laplacian with higher order convergence speed and error isotropy. We also review the formulation of the lattice Boltzmann method and discuss the explicit sparse solution formulated using Smolyak's algorithm, as well as the method for the evaluation of the Hermite polynomials for efficient generation of the higher order stencils. Numerical experiments are carried out to verify the error analysis and formulations.

We propose an efficient numerical method for computing natural gradient descent directions with respect to a generic metric in the state space. Our technique relies on representing the natural gradient direction as a solution to a standard least-squares problem. Hence, instead of calculating, storing, or inverting the information matrix directly, we apply efficient methods from numerical linear algebra to solve this least-squares problem. We treat both scenarios where the derivative of the state variable with respect to the parameter is either explicitly known or implicitly given through constraints. We apply the QR decomposition to solve the least-squares problem in the former case and utilize the adjoint-state method to compute the natural gradient descent direction in the latter case. As a result, we can reliably compute several natural gradient descents, including the Wasserstein natural gradient, for a large-scale parameter space with thousands of dimensions, which was believed to be out of reach. Finally, our numerical results shed light on the qualitative differences among the standard gradient descent method and various natural gradient descent methods based on different metric spaces in large-scale nonconvex optimization problems.

We consider the finite difference discretization of isotropic elastic wave equations on nonuniform grids. The intended applications are seismic studies, where heterogeneity of the earth media can lead to severe oversampling for simulations on uniform grids. To address this issue, we demonstrate how to properly couple two non-overlapping neighboring subdomains that are discretized uniformly, but with different grid spacings. Specifically, a numerical procedure is presented to impose the interface conditions weakly through carefully designed penalty terms, such that the overall semi-discretization conserves a discrete energy resembling the continuous energy possessed by the elastic wave system.

It is often the case in Statistics that one needs to compute sums of infinite series, especially in marginalising over discrete latent variables. This has become more relevant with the popularization of gradient-based techniques (e.g. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo) in the Bayesian inference context, for which discrete latent variables are hard or impossible to deal with. For many commonly used infinite series, custom algorithms have been developed which exploit specific features of each problem. General techniques, suitable for a large class of problems with limited input from the user are less established. We employ basic results from the theory of infinite series to investigate general, problem-agnostic algorithms to truncate infinite sums within an arbitrary tolerance $\varepsilon > 0$ and provide robust computational implementations with provable guarantees. We compare three tentative solutions to estimating the infinite sum of interest: (i) a "naive" approach that sums terms until the terms are below the threshold $\varepsilon$; (ii) a `bounding pair' strategy based on trapping the true value between two partial sums; and (iii) a `batch' strategy that computes the partial sums in regular intervals and stops when their difference is less than $\varepsilon$. We show under which conditions each strategy guarantees the truncated sum is within the required tolerance and compare the error achieved by each approach, as well as the number of function evaluations necessary for each one. A detailed discussion of numerical issues in practical implementations is also provided. The paper provides some theoretical discussion of a variety of statistical applications, including raw and factorial moments and count models with observation error. Finally, detailed illustrations in the form noisy MCMC for Bayesian inference and maximum marginal likelihood estimation are presented.

As a traditional and widely-adopted mortality rate projection technique, by representing the log mortality rate as a simple bilinear form $\log(m_{x,t})=a_x+b_xk_t$. The Lee-Carter model has been extensively studied throughout the past 30 years, however, the performance of the model in the presence of outliers has been paid little attention, particularly for the parameter estimation of $b_x$. In this paper, we propose a robust estimation method for Lee-Carter model by formulating it as a probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) with multivariate $t$-distributions, and an efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for implementation. The advantages of the method are threefold. It yields significantly more robust estimates of both $b_x$ and $k_t$, preserves the fundamental interpretation for $b_x$ as the first principal component as in the traditional approach and is flexible to be integrated into other existing time series models for $k_t$. The parameter uncertainties are examined by adopting a standard residual bootstrap. A simulation study based on Human Mortality Database shows superior performance of the proposed model compared to other conventional approaches.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

We introduce an algorithmic method for population anomaly detection based on gaussianization through an adversarial autoencoder. This method is applicable to detection of `soft' anomalies in arbitrarily distributed highly-dimensional data. A soft, or population, anomaly is characterized by a shift in the distribution of the data set, where certain elements appear with higher probability than anticipated. Such anomalies must be detected by considering a sufficiently large sample set rather than a single sample. Applications include, but not limited to, payment fraud trends, data exfiltration, disease clusters and epidemics, and social unrests. We evaluate the method on several domains and obtain both quantitative results and qualitative insights.

Detecting objects and estimating their pose remains as one of the major challenges of the computer vision research community. There exists a compromise between localizing the objects and estimating their viewpoints. The detector ideally needs to be view-invariant, while the pose estimation process should be able to generalize towards the category-level. This work is an exploration of using deep learning models for solving both problems simultaneously. For doing so, we propose three novel deep learning architectures, which are able to perform a joint detection and pose estimation, where we gradually decouple the two tasks. We also investigate whether the pose estimation problem should be solved as a classification or regression problem, being this still an open question in the computer vision community. We detail a comparative analysis of all our solutions and the methods that currently define the state of the art for this problem. We use PASCAL3D+ and ObjectNet3D datasets to present the thorough experimental evaluation and main results. With the proposed models we achieve the state-of-the-art performance in both datasets.