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Robust change-point detection for large-scale data streams has many real-world applications in industrial quality control, signal detection, biosurveillance. Unfortunately, it is highly non-trivial to develop efficient schemes due to three challenges: (1) the unknown sparse subset of affected data streams, (2) the unexpected outliers, and (3) computational scalability for real-time monitoring and detection. In this article, we develop a family of efficient real-time robust detection schemes for monitoring large-scale independent data streams. For each data stream, we propose to construct a new local robust detection statistic called $L_{\alpha}$-CUSUM statistic that can reduce the effect of outliers by using the Box-Cox transformation of the likelihood function. Then the global scheme will raise an alarm based upon the sum of the shrinkage transformation of these local $L_{\alpha}$-CUSUM statistics so as to filter out unaffected data streams. In addition, we propose a new concept called {\em false alarm breakdown point} to measure the robustness of online monitoring schemes and propose a worst-case detection efficiency score to measure the detection efficiency when the data contain outliers. We then characterize the breakdown point and the efficiency score of our proposed schemes. Asymptotic analysis and numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the robustness and efficiency of our proposed schemes.

Many text generation systems benefit from using a retriever to retrieve passages from a textual knowledge corpus (e.g., Wikipedia) which are then provided as additional context to the generator. For open-ended generation tasks (like generating informative utterances in conversations) many varied passages may be equally relevant and we find that existing methods that jointly train the retriever and generator underperform: the retriever may not find relevant passages even amongst the top-10 and hence the generator may not learn a preference to ground its generated output in them. We propose using an additional guide retriever that is allowed to use the target output and "in hindsight" retrieve relevant passages during training. We model the guide retriever after the posterior distribution Q of passages given the input and the target output and train it jointly with the standard retriever and the generator by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBo) in expectation over Q. For informative conversations from the Wizard of Wikipedia dataset, with posterior-guided training, the retriever finds passages with higher relevance in the top-10 (23% relative improvement), the generator's responses are more grounded in the retrieved passage (19% relative improvement) and the end-to-end system produces better overall output (6.4% relative improvement).

Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by transforming the data. In this scenario, modelling the variance laws is an appealing alternative. This work adds flexibility to the usual Multivariate Dynamic Gaussian model by defining the process as a scale mixture between a Gaussian and log-Gaussian processes. The scale is represented by a process varying smoothly over space and time which is allowed to depend on covariates. State-space equations define the dynamics over time for both mean and variance processes resulting infeasible inference and prediction. Analysis of artificial datasets show that the parameters are identifiable and simpler models are well recovered by the general proposed model. The analyses of two important environmental processes, maximum temperature and maximum ozone, illustrate the effectiveness of our proposal in improving the uncertainty quantification in the prediction of spatio-temporal processes.

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.

Deep generative modelling is a class of techniques that train deep neural networks to model the distribution of training samples. Research has fragmented into various interconnected approaches, each of which making trade-offs including run-time, diversity, and architectural restrictions. In particular, this compendium covers energy-based models, variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, autoregressive models, normalizing flows, in addition to numerous hybrid approaches. These techniques are drawn under a single cohesive framework, comparing and contrasting to explain the premises behind each, while reviewing current state-of-the-art advances and implementations.

Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.

We present a generalization of the Cauchy/Lorentzian, Geman-McClure, Welsch/Leclerc, generalized Charbonnier, Charbonnier/pseudo-Huber/L1-L2, and L2 loss functions. By introducing robustness as a continous parameter, our loss function allows algorithms built around robust loss minimization to be generalized, which improves performance on basic vision tasks such as registration and clustering. Interpreting our loss as the negative log of a univariate density yields a general probability distribution that includes normal and Cauchy distributions as special cases. This probabilistic interpretation enables the training of neural networks in which the robustness of the loss automatically adapts itself during training, which improves performance on learning-based tasks such as generative image synthesis and unsupervised monocular depth estimation, without requiring any manual parameter tuning.

Realistic music generation is a challenging task. When building generative models of music that are learnt from data, typically high-level representations such as scores or MIDI are used that abstract away the idiosyncrasies of a particular performance. But these nuances are very important for our perception of musicality and realism, so in this work we embark on modelling music in the raw audio domain. It has been shown that autoregressive models excel at generating raw audio waveforms of speech, but when applied to music, we find them biased towards capturing local signal structure at the expense of modelling long-range correlations. This is problematic because music exhibits structure at many different timescales. In this work, we explore autoregressive discrete autoencoders (ADAs) as a means to enable autoregressive models to capture long-range correlations in waveforms. We find that they allow us to unconditionally generate piano music directly in the raw audio domain, which shows stylistic consistency across tens of seconds.

Dynamic topic models (DTMs) model the evolution of prevalent themes in literature, online media, and other forms of text over time. DTMs assume that word co-occurrence statistics change continuously and therefore impose continuous stochastic process priors on their model parameters. These dynamical priors make inference much harder than in regular topic models, and also limit scalability. In this paper, we present several new results around DTMs. First, we extend the class of tractable priors from Wiener processes to the generic class of Gaussian processes (GPs). This allows us to explore topics that develop smoothly over time, that have a long-term memory or are temporally concentrated (for event detection). Second, we show how to perform scalable approximate inference in these models based on ideas around stochastic variational inference and sparse Gaussian processes. This way we can train a rich family of DTMs to massive data. Our experiments on several large-scale datasets show that our generalized model allows us to find interesting patterns that were not accessible by previous approaches.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.