Along with the increasing availability of health data has come the rise of data-driven models to inform decision-making and policy. These models have the potential to benefit both patients and health care providers but can also exacerbate health inequities. Existing "algorithmic fairness" methods for measuring and correcting model bias fall short of what is needed for health policy in two key ways. First, methods typically focus on a single grouping along which discrimination may occur rather than considering multiple, intersecting groups. Second, in clinical applications, risk prediction is typically used to guide treatment, creating distinct statistical issues that invalidate most existing techniques. We present summary unfairness metrics that build on existing techniques in "counterfactual fairness" to address both challenges. We also develop a complete framework of estimation and inference tools for our metrics, including the unfairness value ("u-value"), used to determine the relative extremity of unfairness, and standard errors and confidence intervals employing an alternative to the standard bootstrap. We demonstrate application of our framework to a COVID-19 risk prediction model deployed in a major Midwestern health system.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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The choice to participate in a data-driven service, often made on the basis of quality of that service, influences the ability of the service to learn and improve. We study the participation and retraining dynamics that arise when both the learners and sub-populations of users are \emph{risk-reducing}, which cover a broad class of updates including gradient descent, multiplicative weights, etc. Suppose, for example, that individuals choose to spend their time amongst social media platforms proportionally to how well each platform works for them. Each platform also gathers data about its active users, which it uses to update parameters with a gradient step. For this example and for our general class of dynamics, we show that the only asymptotically stable equilibria are segmented, with sub-populations allocated to a single learner. Under mild assumptions, the utilitarian social optimum is a stable equilibrium. In contrast to previous work, which shows that repeated risk minimization can result in representation disparity and high overall loss for a single learner \citep{hashimoto2018fairness,miller2021outside}, we find that repeated myopic updates with multiple learners lead to better outcomes. We illustrate the phenomena via a simulated example initialized from real data.
In sampling-based Bayesian models of brain function, neural activities are assumed to be samples from probability distributions that the brain uses for probabilistic computation. However, a comprehensive understanding of how mechanistic models of neural dynamics can sample from arbitrary distributions is still lacking. We use tools from functional analysis and stochastic differential equations to explore the minimum architectural requirements for $\textit{recurrent}$ neural circuits to sample from complex distributions. We first consider the traditional sampling model consisting of a network of neurons whose outputs directly represent the samples (sampler-only network). We argue that synaptic current and firing-rate dynamics in the traditional model have limited capacity to sample from a complex probability distribution. We show that the firing rate dynamics of a recurrent neural circuit with a separate set of output units can sample from an arbitrary probability distribution. We call such circuits reservoir-sampler networks (RSNs). We propose an efficient training procedure based on denoising score matching that finds recurrent and output weights such that the RSN implements Langevin sampling. We empirically demonstrate our model's ability to sample from several complex data distributions using the proposed neural dynamics and discuss its applicability to developing the next generation of sampling-based brain models.
We combine Kronecker products, and quantitative information flow, to give a novel formal analysis for the fine-grained verification of utility in complex privacy pipelines. The combination explains a surprising anomaly in the behaviour of utility of privacy-preserving pipelines -- that sometimes a reduction in privacy results also in a decrease in utility. We use the standard measure of utility for Bayesian analysis, introduced by Ghosh at al., to produce tractable and rigorous proofs of the fine-grained statistical behaviour leading to the anomaly. More generally, we offer the prospect of formal-analysis tools for utility that complement extant formal analyses of privacy. We demonstrate our results on a number of common privacy-preserving designs.
Large, curated datasets are required to leverage speech-based tools in healthcare. These are costly to produce, resulting in increased interest in data sharing. As speech can potentially identify speakers (i.e., voiceprints), sharing recordings raises privacy concerns. We examine the re-identification risk for speech recordings, without reference to demographic or metadata, using a state-of-the-art speaker recognition system. We demonstrate that the risk is inversely related to the number of comparisons an adversary must consider, i.e., the search space. Risk is high for a small search space but drops as the search space grows ($precision >0.85$ for $<1*10^{6}$ comparisons, $precision <0.5$ for $>3*10^{6}$ comparisons). Next, we show that the nature of a speech recording influences re-identification risk, with non-connected speech (e.g., vowel prolongation) being harder to identify. Our findings suggest that speaker recognition systems can be used to re-identify participants in specific circumstances, but in practice, the re-identification risk appears low.
This paper investigates the temporal patterns of activity in the cryptocurrency market with a focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and WINkLink from January 2020 to December 2022. Market activity measures - logarithmic returns, volume, and transaction number, sampled every 10 seconds, were divided into intraday and intraweek periods and then further decomposed into recurring and noise components via correlation matrix formalism. The key findings include the distinctive market behavior from traditional stock markets due to the nonexistence of trade opening and closing. This was manifest in three enhanced-activity phases aligning with Asian, European, and U.S. trading sessions. An intriguing pattern of activity surge in 15-minute intervals, particularly at full hours, was also noticed, implying the potential role of algorithmic trading. Most notably, recurring bursts of activity in bitcoin and ether were identified to coincide with the release times of significant U.S. macroeconomic reports such as Nonfarm payrolls, Consumer Price Index data, and Federal Reserve statements. The most correlated daily patterns of activity occurred in 2022, possibly reflecting the documented correlations with U.S. stock indices in the same period. Factors that are external to the inner market dynamics are found to be responsible for the repeatable components of the market dynamics, while the internal factors appear to be substantially random, which manifests itself in a good agreement between the empirical eigenvalue distributions in their bulk and the random matrix theory predictions expressed by the Marchenko-Pastur distribution. The findings reported support the growing integration of cryptocurrencies into the global financial markets.
We consider a general linear parabolic problem with extended time boundary conditions (including initial value problems and periodic ones), and approximate it by the implicit Euler scheme in time and the Gradient Discretisation method in space; the latter is in fact a class of methods that includes conforming and nonconforming finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin methods and several others. The main result is an error estimate which holds without supplementary regularity hypothesis on the solution. This result states that the approximation error has the same order as the sum of the interpolation error and the conformity error. The proof of this result relies on an inf-sup inequality in Hilbert spaces which can be used both in the continuous and the discrete frameworks. The error estimate result is illustrated by numerical examples with low regularity of the solution.
The rise of information technology has transformed the business landscape, with organizations increasingly relying on information systems to collect and store vast amounts of data. To stay competitive, businesses must harness this data to make informed decisions that optimize their actions in response to the market. Business intelligence (BI) is an approach that enables organizations to leverage data-driven insights for better decision-making, but implementing BI comes with its own set of challenges. Accordingly, understanding the key factors that contribute to successful implementation is crucial. This study examines the factors affecting the implementation of BI projects by analyzing the interactions between these factors using system dynamics modeling. The research draws on interviews with five BI experts and a review of the background literature to identify effective implementation strategies. Specifically, the study compares traditional and self-service implementation approaches and simulates their respective impacts on organizational acceptance of BI. The results show that the two approaches were equally effective in generating organizational acceptance until the twenty-fifth month of implementation, after which the self-service strategy generated significantly higher levels of acceptance than the traditional strategy. In fact, after 60 months, the self-service approach was associated with a 30% increase in organizational acceptance over the traditional approach. The paper also provides recommendations for increasing the acceptance of BI in both implementation strategies. Overall, this study underscores the importance of identifying and addressing key factors that impact BI implementation success, offering practical guidance to organizations seeking to leverage the power of BI in today's competitive business environment.
The prevalence of machine learning in biomedical research is rapidly growing, yet the trustworthiness of such research is often overlooked. While some previous works have investigated the ability of adversarial attacks to degrade model performance in medical imaging, the ability to falsely improve performance via recently-developed "enhancement attacks" may be a greater threat to biomedical machine learning. In the spirit of developing attacks to better understand trustworthiness, we developed two techniques to drastically enhance prediction performance of classifiers with minimal changes to features: 1) general enhancement of prediction performance, and 2) enhancement of a particular method over another. Our enhancement framework falsely improved classifiers' accuracy from 50% to almost 100% while maintaining high feature similarities between original and enhanced data (Pearson's r's>0.99). Similarly, the method-specific enhancement framework was effective in falsely improving the performance of one method over another. For example, a simple neural network outperformed logistic regression by 17% on our enhanced dataset, although no performance differences were present in the original dataset. Crucially, the original and enhanced data were still similar (r=0.99). Our results demonstrate the feasibility of minor data manipulations to achieve any desired prediction performance, which presents an interesting ethical challenge for the future of biomedical machine learning. These findings emphasize the need for more robust data provenance tracking and other precautionary measures to ensure the integrity of biomedical machine learning research.
A population-averaged additive subdistribution hazards model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function and to analyze correlated failure time data subject to competing risks. This approach extends the population-averaged additive hazards model by accommodating potentially dependent censoring due to competing events other than the event of interest. Assuming an independent working correlation structure, an estimating equations approach is outlined to estimate the regression coefficients and a new sandwich variance estimator is proposed. The proposed sandwich variance estimator accounts for both the correlations between failure times and between the censoring times, and is robust to misspecification of the unknown dependency structure within each cluster. We further develop goodness-of-fit tests to assess the adequacy of the additive structure of the subdistribution hazards for the overall model and each covariate. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in finite samples. We illustrate our methods using data from the STrategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
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