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We investigate personalizing the explanations that an Intelligent Tutoring System generates to justify the hints it provides to students to foster their learning. The personalization targets students with low levels of two traits, Need for Cognition and Conscientiousness, and aims to enhance these students' engagement with the explanations, based on prior findings that these students do not naturally engage with the explanations but they would benefit from them if they do. To evaluate the effectiveness of the personalization, we conducted a user study where we found that our proposed personalization significantly increases our target users' interaction with the hint explanations, their understanding of the hints and their learning. Hence, this work provides valuable insights into effectively personalizing AI-driven explanations for cognitively demanding tasks such as learning.

The sparsity-ranked lasso (SRL) has been developed for model selection and estimation in the presence of interactions and polynomials. The main tenet of the SRL is that an algorithm should be more skeptical of higher-order polynomials and interactions *a priori* compared to main effects, and hence the inclusion of these more complex terms should require a higher level of evidence. In time series, the same idea of ranked prior skepticism can be applied to the possibly seasonal autoregressive (AR) structure of the series during the model fitting process, becoming especially useful in settings with uncertain or multiple modes of seasonality. The SRL can naturally incorporate exogenous variables, with streamlined options for inference and/or feature selection. The fitting process is quick even for large series with a high-dimensional feature set. In this work, we discuss both the formulation of this procedure and the software we have developed for its implementation via the **fastTS** R package. We explore the performance of our SRL-based approach in a novel application involving the autoregressive modeling of hourly emergency room arrivals at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics. We find that the SRL is considerably faster than its competitors, while producing more accurate predictions.

The aim of this work is to introduce a thermo-electromagnetic model for calculating the temperature and the power dissipated in cylindrical pieces whose geometry var\'ies with time and undergoes large deformations; the motion will be a known data. The work will be a first step towards building a complete thermoelectromagnetic-mechanical model suitable for simulating electrically assisted forming processes, which is the main motivation of the work. The electromagnetic model will be obtained from the time-harmonic eddy current problem with an inplane current; the source will be given in terms of currents or voltages defined at sorne parts of the boundary. Finite element methods based on a Lagrangian weak formulation will be used for the numerical solution. This approach will avoid the need to compute and remesh the thermo-electromagnetic domain along the time. The numerical tools will be implemented in FEniCS and validated by using a suitable test also solved in Eulerian coordinates.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) are a widely used framework for sequential decision-making under parameter uncertainty. RMDPs have been extensively studied when the objective is to maximize the discounted return, but little is known for average optimality (optimizing the long-run average of the rewards obtained over time) and Blackwell optimality (remaining discount optimal for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1). In this paper, we prove several foundational results for RMDPs beyond the discounted return. We show that average optimal policies can be chosen stationary and deterministic for sa-rectangular RMDPs but, perhaps surprisingly, that history-dependent (Markovian) policies strictly outperform stationary policies for average optimality in s-rectangular RMDPs. We also study Blackwell optimality for sa-rectangular RMDPs, where we show that {\em approximate} Blackwell optimal policies always exist, although Blackwell optimal policies may not exist. We also provide a sufficient condition for their existence, which encompasses virtually any examples from the literature. We then discuss the connection between average and Blackwell optimality, and we describe several algorithms to compute the optimal average return. Interestingly, our approach leverages the connections between RMDPs and stochastic games.

One of the main challenges for interpreting black-box models is the ability to uniquely decompose square-integrable functions of non-independent random inputs into a sum of functions of every possible subset of variables. However, dealing with dependencies among inputs can be complicated. We propose a novel framework to study this problem, linking three domains of mathematics: probability theory, functional analysis, and combinatorics. We show that, under two reasonable assumptions on the inputs (non-perfect functional dependence and non-degenerate stochastic dependence), it is always possible to decompose such a function uniquely. This generalizes the well-known Hoeffding decomposition. The elements of this decomposition can be expressed using oblique projections and allow for novel interpretability indices for evaluation and variance decomposition purposes. The properties of these novel indices are studied and discussed. This generalization offers a path towards a more precise uncertainty quantification, which can benefit sensitivity analysis and interpretability studies whenever the inputs are dependent. This decomposition is illustrated analytically, and the challenges for adopting these results in practice are discussed.

We investigate personalizing the explanations that an Intelligent Tutoring System generates to justify the hints it provides to students to foster their learning. The personalization targets students with low levels of two traits, Need for Cognition and Conscientiousness, and aims to enhance these students' engagement with the explanations, based on prior findings that these students do not naturally engage with the explanations but they would benefit from them if they do. To evaluate the effectiveness of the personalization, we conducted a user study where we found that our proposed personalization significantly increases our target users' interaction with the hint explanations, their understanding of the hints and their learning. Hence, this work provides valuable insights into effectively personalizing AI-driven explanations for cognitively demanding tasks such as learning.

Several mixed-effects models for longitudinal data have been proposed to accommodate the non-linearity of late-life cognitive trajectories and assess the putative influence of covariates on it. No prior research provides a side-by-side examination of these models to offer guidance on their proper application and interpretation. In this work, we examined five statistical approaches previously used to answer research questions related to non-linear changes in cognitive aging: the linear mixed model (LMM) with a quadratic term, LMM with splines, the functional mixed model, the piecewise linear mixed model, and the sigmoidal mixed model. We first theoretically describe the models. Next, using data from two prospective cohorts with annual cognitive testing, we compared the interpretation of the models by investigating associations of education on cognitive change before death. Lastly, we performed a simulation study to empirically evaluate the models and provide practical recommendations. Except for the LMM-quadratic, the fit of all models was generally adequate to capture non-linearity of cognitive change and models were relatively robust. Although spline-based models have no interpretable nonlinearity parameters, their convergence was easier to achieve, and they allow graphical interpretation. In contrast, piecewise and sigmoidal models, with interpretable non-linear parameters, may require more data to achieve convergence.

Non-line-of-sight (NLOS) imaging aims to reconstruct the three-dimensional hidden scenes from the data measured in the line-of-sight, which uses photon time-of-flight information encoded in light after multiple diffuse reflections. The under-sampled scanning data can facilitate fast imaging. However, the resulting reconstruction problem becomes a serious ill-posed inverse problem, the solution of which is highly possibility to be degraded due to noises and distortions. In this paper, we propose novel NLOS reconstruction models based on curvature regularization, i.e., the object-domain curvature regularization model and the dual (signal and object)-domain curvature regularization model. In what follows, we develop efficient optimization algorithms relying on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with the backtracking stepsize rule, for which all solvers can be implemented on GPUs. We evaluate the proposed algorithms on both synthetic and real datasets, which achieve state-of-the-art performance, especially in the compressed sensing setting. Based on GPU computing, our algorithm is the most effective among iterative methods, balancing reconstruction quality and computational time. All our codes and data are available at //github.com/Duanlab123/CurvNLOS.

Researchers in many fields endeavor to estimate treatment effects by regressing outcome data (Y) on a treatment (D) and observed confounders (X). Even absent unobserved confounding, the regression coefficient on the treatment reports a weighted average of strata-specific treatment effects (Angrist, 1998). Where heterogeneous treatment effects cannot be ruled out, the resulting coefficient is thus not generally equal to the average treatment effect (ATE), and is unlikely to be the quantity of direct scientific or policy interest. The difference between the coefficient and the ATE has led researchers to propose various interpretational, bounding, and diagnostic aids (Humphreys, 2009; Aronow and Samii, 2016; Sloczynski, 2022; Chattopadhyay and Zubizarreta, 2023). We note that the linear regression of Y on D and X can be misspecified when the treatment effect is heterogeneous in X. The "weights of regression", for which we provide a new (more general) expression, simply characterize how the OLS coefficient will depart from the ATE under the misspecification resulting from unmodeled treatment effect heterogeneity. Consequently, a natural alternative to suffering these weights is to address the misspecification that gives rise to them. For investigators committed to linear approaches, we propose relying on the slightly weaker assumption that the potential outcomes are linear in X. Numerous well-known estimators are unbiased for the ATE under this assumption, namely regression-imputation/g-computation/T-learner, regression with an interaction of the treatment and covariates (Lin, 2013), and balancing weights. Any of these approaches avoid the apparent weighting problem of the misspecified linear regression, at an efficiency cost that will be small when there are few covariates relative to sample size. We demonstrate these lessons using simulations in observational and experimental settings.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.