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Gaussian Processes have become an indispensable part of the spatial statistician's toolbox but are unsuitable for analyzing large dataset because of the significant time and memory needed to fit the associated model exactly. Vecchia Approximation is widely used to reduce the computational complexity and can be calculated with embarrassingly parallel algorithms. While multi-core software has been developed for Vecchia Approximation, such as the GpGp R package, software designed to run on graphics processing units (GPU) is lacking, despite the tremendous success GPUs have had in statistics and machine learning. We compare three different ways to implement Vecchia Approximation on a GPU: two of which are similar to methods used for other Gaussian Process approximations and one that is new. The impact of memory type on performance is investigated and the final method is optimized accordingly. We show that our new method outperforms the other two and then present it in the GpGpU R package. We compare GpGpU to existing multi-core and GPU-accelerated software by fitting Gaussian Process models on various datasets, including a large spatial-temporal dataset of $n>10^6$ points collected from an earth-observing satellite. Our results show that GpGpU achieves faster runtimes and better predictive accuracy.

This work studies the statistical advantages of using features comprised of general linear combinations of covariates to partition the data in randomized decision tree and forest regression algorithms. Using random tessellation theory in stochastic geometry, we provide a theoretical analysis of a class of efficiently generated random tree and forest estimators that allow for oblique splits along such features. We call these estimators oblique Mondrian trees and forests, as the trees are generated by first selecting a set of features from linear combinations of the covariates and then running a Mondrian process that hierarchically partitions the data along these features. Generalization error bounds and convergence rates are obtained for the flexible dimension reduction model class of ridge functions (also known as multi-index models), where the output is assumed to depend on a low dimensional relevant feature subspace of the input domain. The results highlight how the risk of these estimators depends on the choice of features and quantify how robust the risk is with respect to error in the estimation of relevant features. The asymptotic analysis also provides conditions on the selected features along which the data is split for these estimators to obtain minimax optimal rates of convergence with respect to the dimension of the relevant feature subspace. Additionally, a lower bound on the risk of axis-aligned Mondrian trees (where features are restricted to the set of covariates) is obtained proving that these estimators are suboptimal for these linear dimension reduction models in general, no matter how the distribution over the covariates used to divide the data at each tree node is weighted.

Characterizing and understanding the dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) around saddle points remains an open problem. We first show that saddle points in neural networks can be divided into two types, among which the Type-II saddles are especially difficult to escape from because the gradient noise vanishes at the saddle. The dynamics of SGD around these saddles are thus to leading order described by a random matrix product process, and it is thus natural to study the dynamics of SGD around these saddles using the notion of probabilistic stability and the related Lyapunov exponent. Theoretically, we link the study of SGD dynamics to well-known concepts in ergodic theory, which we leverage to show that saddle points can be either attractive or repulsive for SGD, and its dynamics can be classified into four different phases, depending on the signal-to-noise ratio in the gradient close to the saddle.

Obtaining accurate estimates of uncertainty in climate scenarios often requires generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate simulations, a computationally expensive and memory intensive process. To address this challenge, we train a novel generative deep learning approach on extensive sets of climate simulations. The model consists of two components: a variational autoencoder for dimensionality reduction and a denoising diffusion probabilistic model that generates multiple ensemble members. We validate our model on the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble and show that it achieves good agreement with the original ensemble in terms of variability. By leveraging the latent space representation, our model can rapidly generate large ensembles on-the-fly with minimal memory requirements, which can significantly improve the efficiency of uncertainty quantification in climate simulations.

Information retrieval systems have been evaluated using the Cranfield paradigm for many years. This paradigm allows a systematic, fair, and reproducible evaluation of different retrieval methods in fixed experimental environments. However, real-world retrieval systems must cope with dynamic environments and temporal changes that affect the document collection, topical trends, and the individual user's perception of what is considered relevant. Yet, the temporal dimension in IR evaluations is still understudied. To this end, this work investigates how the temporal generalizability of effectiveness evaluations can be assessed. As a conceptual model, we generalize Cranfield-type experiments to the temporal context by classifying the change in the essential components according to the create, update, and delete operations of persistent storage known from CRUD. From the different types of change different evaluation scenarios are derived and it is outlined what they imply. Based on these scenarios, renowned state-of-the-art retrieval systems are tested and it is investigated how the retrieval effectiveness changes on different levels of granularity. We show that the proposed measures can be well adapted to describe the changes in the retrieval results. The experiments conducted confirm that the retrieval effectiveness strongly depends on the evaluation scenario investigated. We find that not only the average retrieval performance of single systems but also the relative system performance are strongly affected by the components that change and to what extent these components changed.

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.

The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.

Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) aims to detect the emotion label for each utterance. Motivated by recent studies which have proven that feeding training examples in a meaningful order rather than considering them randomly can boost the performance of models, we propose an ERC-oriented hybrid curriculum learning framework. Our framework consists of two curricula: (1) conversation-level curriculum (CC); and (2) utterance-level curriculum (UC). In CC, we construct a difficulty measurer based on "emotion shift" frequency within a conversation, then the conversations are scheduled in an "easy to hard" schema according to the difficulty score returned by the difficulty measurer. For UC, it is implemented from an emotion-similarity perspective, which progressively strengthens the model's ability in identifying the confusing emotions. With the proposed model-agnostic hybrid curriculum learning strategy, we observe significant performance boosts over a wide range of existing ERC models and we are able to achieve new state-of-the-art results on four public ERC datasets.

We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.