Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a data set of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.
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Gaussian graphical models are nowadays commonly applied to the comparison of groups sharing the same variables, by jointy learning their independence structures. We consider the case where there are exactly two dependent groups and the association structure is represented by a family of coloured Gaussian graphical models suited to deal with paired data problems. To learn the two dependent graphs, together with their across-graph association structure, we implement a fused graphical lasso penalty. We carry out a comprehensive analysis of this approach, with special attention to the role played by some relevant submodel classes. In this way, we provide a broad set of tools for the application of Gaussian graphical models to paired data problems. These include results useful for the specification of penalty values in order to obtain a path of lasso solutions and an ADMM algorithm that solves the fused graphical lasso optimization problem. Finally, we present an application of our method to cancer genomics where it is of interest to compare cancer cells with a control sample from histologically normal tissues adjacent to the tumor. All the methods described in this article are implemented in the $\texttt{R}$ package $\texttt{pdglasso}$ availabe at: //github.com/savranciati/pdglasso.
Three variants of the statistical complexity function, which is used as a criterion in the problem of detection of a useful signal in the signal-noise mixture, are considered. The probability distributions maximizing the considered variants of statistical complexity are obtained analytically and conclusions about the efficiency of using one or another variant for detection problem are made. The comparison of considered information characteristics is shown and analytical results are illustrated on an example of synthesized signals. A method is proposed for selecting the threshold of the information criterion, which can be used in decision rule for useful signal detection in the signal-noise mixture. The choice of the threshold depends a priori on the analytically obtained maximum values. As a result, the complexity based on the total variation demonstrates the best ability of useful signal detection.
Machine learning models often need to be robust to noisy input data. The effect of real-world noise (which is often random) on model predictions is captured by a model's local robustness, i.e., the consistency of model predictions in a local region around an input. However, the na\"ive approach to computing local robustness based on Monte-Carlo sampling is statistically inefficient, leading to prohibitive computational costs for large-scale applications. In this work, we develop the first analytical estimators to efficiently compute local robustness of multi-class discriminative models using local linear function approximation and the multivariate Normal CDF. Through the derivation of these estimators, we show how local robustness is connected to concepts such as randomized smoothing and softmax probability. We also confirm empirically that these estimators accurately and efficiently compute the local robustness of standard deep learning models. In addition, we demonstrate these estimators' usefulness for various tasks involving local robustness, such as measuring robustness bias and identifying examples that are vulnerable to noise perturbation in a dataset. By developing these analytical estimators, this work not only advances conceptual understanding of local robustness, but also makes its computation practical, enabling the use of local robustness in critical downstream applications.
Neural network models are widely used in a variety of domains, often as black-box solutions, since they are not directly interpretable for humans. The field of explainable artificial intelligence aims at developing explanation methods to address this challenge, and several approaches have been developed over the recent years, including methods for investigating what type of knowledge these models internalise during the training process. Among these, the method of concept detection, investigates which \emph{concepts} neural network models learn to represent in order to complete their tasks. In this work, we present an extension to the method of concept detection, named \emph{concept backpropagation}, which provides a way of analysing how the information representing a given concept is internalised in a given neural network model. In this approach, the model input is perturbed in a manner guided by a trained concept probe for the described model, such that the concept of interest is maximised. This allows for the visualisation of the detected concept directly in the input space of the model, which in turn makes it possible to see what information the model depends on for representing the described concept. We present results for this method applied to a various set of input modalities, and discuss how our proposed method can be used to visualise what information trained concept probes use, and the degree as to which the representation of the probed concept is entangled within the neural network model itself.
The empirical validation of models remains one of the most important challenges in opinion dynamics. In this contribution, we report on recent developments on combining data from survey experiments with computational models of opinion formation. We extend previous work on the empirical assessment of an argument-based model for opinion dynamics in which biased processing is the principle mechanism. While previous work (Banisch & Shamon, in press) has focused on calibrating the micro mechanism with experimental data on argument-induced opinion change, this paper concentrates on the macro level using the empirical data gathered in the survey experiment. For this purpose, the argument model is extended by an external source of balanced information which allows to control for the impact of peer influence processes relative to other noisy processes. We show that surveyed opinion distributions are matched with a high level of accuracy in a specific region in the parameter space, indicating an equal impact of social influence and external noise. More importantly, the estimated strength of biased processing given the macro data is compatible with those values that achieve high likelihood at the micro level. The main contribution of the paper is hence to show that the extended argument-based model provides a solid bridge from the micro processes of argument-induced attitude change to macro level opinion distributions. Beyond that, we review the development of argument-based models and present a new method for the automated classification of model outcomes.
Hyperspectral Image (HSI)s cover hundreds or thousands of narrow spectral bands, conveying a wealth of spatial and spectral information. However, due to the instrumental errors and the atmospheric changes, the HSI obtained in practice are often contaminated by noise and dead pixels(lines), resulting in missing information that may severely compromise the subsequent applications. We introduce here a novel HSI missing pixel prediction algorithm, called Low Rank and Sparsity Constraint Plug-and-Play (LRS-PnP). It is shown that LRS-PnP is able to predict missing pixels and bands even when all spectral bands of the image are missing. The proposed LRS-PnP algorithm is further extended to a self-supervised model by combining the LRS-PnP with the Deep Image Prior (DIP), called LRS-PnP-DIP. In a series of experiments with real data, It is shown that the LRS-PnP-DIP either achieves state-of-the-art inpainting performance compared to other learning-based methods, or outperforms them.
The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and its variants are widely used in statistics. In high-dimensional mixture linear regression, the model is assumed to be a finite mixture of linear regression and the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size. The standard EM algorithm, which attempts to find the maximum likelihood estimator, becomes infeasible for such model. We devise a group lasso penalized EM algorithm and study its statistical properties. Existing theoretical results of regularized EM algorithms often rely on dividing the sample into many independent batches and employing a fresh batch of sample in each iteration of the algorithm. Our algorithm and theoretical analysis do not require sample-splitting, and can be extended to multivariate response cases. The proposed methods also have encouraging performances in numerical studies.
The ability to envision future states is crucial to informed decision making while interacting with dynamic environments. With cameras providing a prevalent and information rich sensing modality, the problem of predicting future states from image sequences has garnered a lot of attention. Current state of the art methods typically train large parametric models for their predictions. Though often able to predict with accuracy, these models rely on the availability of large training datasets to converge to useful solutions. In this paper we focus on the problem of predicting future images of an image sequence from very little training data. To approach this problem, we use non-parametric models to take a probabilistic approach to image prediction. We generate probability distributions over sequentially predicted images and propagate uncertainty through time to generate a confidence metric for our predictions. Gaussian Processes are used for their data efficiency and ability to readily incorporate new training data online. We showcase our method by successfully predicting future frames of a smooth fluid simulation environment.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
The area of Data Analytics on graphs promises a paradigm shift as we approach information processing of classes of data, which are typically acquired on irregular but structured domains (social networks, various ad-hoc sensor networks). Yet, despite its long history, current approaches mostly focus on the optimization of graphs themselves, rather than on directly inferring learning strategies, such as detection, estimation, statistical and probabilistic inference, clustering and separation from signals and data acquired on graphs. To fill this void, we first revisit graph topologies from a Data Analytics point of view, and establish a taxonomy of graph networks through a linear algebraic formalism of graph topology (vertices, connections, directivity). This serves as a basis for spectral analysis of graphs, whereby the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of graph Laplacian and adjacency matrices are shown to convey physical meaning related to both graph topology and higher-order graph properties, such as cuts, walks, paths, and neighborhoods. Next, to illustrate estimation strategies performed on graph signals, spectral analysis of graphs is introduced through eigenanalysis of mathematical descriptors of graphs and in a generic way. Finally, a framework for vertex clustering and graph segmentation is established based on graph spectral representation (eigenanalysis) which illustrates the power of graphs in various data association tasks. The supporting examples demonstrate the promise of Graph Data Analytics in modeling structural and functional/semantic inferences. At the same time, Part I serves as a basis for Part II and Part III which deal with theory, methods and applications of processing Data on Graphs and Graph Topology Learning from data.
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