Quantification of economic uncertainty is a key concept for the prediction of macro economic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), and it becomes particularly relevant on real-time or short-time predictions methodologies, such as nowcasting, where it is required a large amount of time series data, commonly with different structures and frequencies. Most of the data comes from the official agencies statistics and non-public institutions, however, relying our estimates in just the traditional data mentioned before, have some disadvantages. One of them is that economic uncertainty could not be represented or measured in a proper way based solely in financial or macroeconomic data, another one, is that they are susceptible to lack of information due to extraordinary events, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. For these reasons, it is very common nowadays to use some non-traditional data from different sources, such as social networks or digital newspapers, in addition to the traditional data from official sources. The economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, is the most used newspaper-based indicator to quantify the uncertainty, and is based on topic modeling of newspapers. In this paper, we propose a methodology to estimate the EPU index, which incorporates a fast and efficient method for topic modeling of digital news based on semantic clustering with word embeddings, allowing to update the index in real-time, which is a drawback with another proposals that use computationally intensive methods for topic modeling, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). We show that our proposal allow us to update the index and significantly reduces the time required for new document assignation into topics.
相關內容
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Modern online advertising systems inevitably rely on personalization methods, such as click-through rate (CTR) prediction. Recent progress in CTR prediction enjoys the rich representation capabilities of deep learning and achieves great success in large-scale industrial applications. However, these methods can suffer from lack of exploration. Another line of prior work addresses the exploration-exploitation trade-off problem with contextual bandit methods, which are less studied in the industry recently due to the difficulty in extending their flexibility with deep models. In this paper, we propose a novel Deep Uncertainty-Aware Learning (DUAL) method to learn deep CTR models based on Gaussian processes, which can provide efficient uncertainty estimations along with the CTR predictions while maintaining the flexibility of deep neural networks. By linking the ability to estimate predictive uncertainties of DUAL to well-known bandit algorithms, we further present DUAL-based Ad-ranking strategies to boost up long-term utilities such as the social welfare in advertising systems. Experimental results on several public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. Remarkably, an online A/B test deployed in the Alibaba display advertising platform shows an $8.2\%$ social welfare improvement and an $8.0\%$ revenue lift.
The ability to understand and work with numbers (numeracy) is critical for many complex reasoning tasks. Currently, most NLP models treat numbers in text in the same way as other tokens---they embed them as distributed vectors. Is this enough to capture numeracy? We begin by investigating the numerical reasoning capabilities of a state-of-the-art question answering model on the DROP dataset. We find this model excels on questions that require numerical reasoning, i.e., it already captures numeracy. To understand how this capability emerges, we probe token embedding methods (e.g., BERT, GloVe) on synthetic list maximum, number decoding, and addition tasks. A surprising degree of numeracy is naturally present in standard embeddings. For example, GloVe and word2vec accurately encode magnitude for numbers up to 1,000. Furthermore, character-level embeddings are even more precise---ELMo captures numeracy the best for all pre-trained methods---but BERT, which uses sub-word units, is less exact.
Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.
Most policy search algorithms require thousands of training episodes to find an effective policy, which is often infeasible with a physical robot. This survey article focuses on the extreme other end of the spectrum: how can a robot adapt with only a handful of trials (a dozen) and a few minutes? By analogy with the word "big-data", we refer to this challenge as "micro-data reinforcement learning". We show that a first strategy is to leverage prior knowledge on the policy structure (e.g., dynamic movement primitives), on the policy parameters (e.g., demonstrations), or on the dynamics (e.g., simulators). A second strategy is to create data-driven surrogate models of the expected reward (e.g., Bayesian optimization) or the dynamical model (e.g., model-based policy search), so that the policy optimizer queries the model instead of the real system. Overall, all successful micro-data algorithms combine these two strategies by varying the kind of model and prior knowledge. The current scientific challenges essentially revolve around scaling up to complex robots (e.g., humanoids), designing generic priors, and optimizing the computing time.
We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.
Opinions in forums and social networks are released by millions of people due to the increasing number of users that use Web 2.0 platforms to opine about brands and organizations. For enterprises or government agencies it is almost impossible to track what people say producing a gap between user needs/expectations and organizations actions. To bridge this gap we create Viscovery, a platform for opinion summarization and trend tracking that is able to analyze a stream of opinions recovered from forums. To do this we use dynamic topic models, allowing to uncover the hidden structure of topics behind opinions, characterizing vocabulary dynamics. We extend dynamic topic models for incremental learning, a key aspect needed in Viscovery for model updating in near-real time. In addition, we include in Viscovery sentiment analysis, allowing to separate positive/negative words for a specific topic at different levels of granularity. Viscovery allows to visualize representative opinions and terms in each topic. At a coarse level of granularity, the dynamic of the topics can be analyzed using a 2D topic embedding, suggesting longitudinal topic merging or segmentation. In this paper we report our experience developing this platform, sharing lessons learned and opportunities that arise from the use of sentiment analysis and topic modeling in real world applications.
Transfer learning has attracted a large amount of interest and research in last decades, and some efforts have been made to build more precise recommendation systems. Most previous transfer recommendation systems assume that the target domain shares the same/similar rating patterns with the auxiliary source domain, which is used to improve the recommendation performance. However, to the best of our knowledge, almost these works do not consider the characteristics of sequential data. In this paper, we study the new cross-domain recommendation scenario for mining novelty-seeking trait. Recent studies in psychology suggest that novelty-seeking trait is highly related to consumer behavior, which has a profound business impact on online recommendation. Previous work performing on only one single target domain may not fully characterize users' novelty-seeking trait well due to the data scarcity and sparsity, leading to the poor recommendation performance. Along this line, we proposed a new cross-domain novelty-seeking trait mining model (CDNST for short) to improve the sequential recommendation performance by transferring the knowledge from auxiliary source domain. We conduct systematic experiments on three domain data sets crawled from Douban (www.douban.com) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Moreover, we analyze how the temporal property of sequential data affects the performance of CDNST, and conduct simulation experiments to validate our analysis.
We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191