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Deep learning is also known as hierarchical learning, where the learner _learns_ to represent a complicated target function by decomposing it into a sequence of simpler functions to reduce sample and time complexity. This paper formally analyzes how multi-layer neural networks can perform such hierarchical learning _efficiently_ and _automatically_ by SGD on the training objective. On the conceptual side, we present a theoretical characterizations of how certain types of deep (i.e. super-constant layer) neural networks can still be sample and time efficiently trained on some hierarchical tasks, when no existing algorithm (including layerwise training, kernel method, etc) is known to be efficient. We establish a new principle called "backward feature correction", where the errors in the lower-level features can be automatically corrected when training together with the higher-level layers. We believe this is a key behind how deep learning is performing deep (hierarchical) learning, as opposed to layerwise learning or simulating some non-hierarchical method. On the technical side, we show for every input dimension $d > 0$, there is a concept class of degree $\omega(1)$ multi-variate polynomials so that, using $\omega(1)$-layer neural networks as learners, SGD can learn any function from this class in $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ time to any $\frac{1}{\mathsf{poly}(d)}$ error, through learning to represent it as a composition of $\omega(1)$ layers of quadratic functions using "backward feature correction." In contrast, we do not know any other simpler algorithm (including layerwise training, applying kernel method sequentially, training a two-layer network, etc) that can learn this concept class in $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ time even to any $d^{-0.01}$ error. As a side result, we prove $d^{\omega(1)}$ lower bounds for several non-hierarchical learners, including any kernel methods.

Time-series datasets are central in numerous fields of science and engineering, such as biomedicine, Earth observation, and network analysis. Extensive research exists on state-space models (SSMs), which are powerful mathematical tools that allow for probabilistic and interpretable learning on time series. Estimating the model parameters in SSMs is arguably one of the most complicated tasks, and the inclusion of prior knowledge is known to both ease the interpretation but also to complicate the inferential tasks. Very recent works have attempted to incorporate a graphical perspective on some of those model parameters, but they present notable limitations that this work addresses. More generally, existing graphical modeling tools are designed to incorporate either static information, focusing on statistical dependencies among independent random variables (e.g., graphical Lasso approach), or dynamic information, emphasizing causal relationships among time series samples (e.g., graphical Granger approaches). However, there are no joint approaches combining static and dynamic graphical modeling within the context of SSMs. This work proposes a novel approach to fill this gap by introducing a joint graphical modeling framework that bridges the static graphical Lasso model and a causal-based graphical approach for the linear-Gaussian SSM. We present DGLASSO (Dynamic Graphical Lasso), a new inference method within this framework that implements an efficient block alternating majorization-minimization algorithm. The algorithm's convergence is established by departing from modern tools from nonlinear analysis. Experimental validation on synthetic and real weather variability data showcases the effectiveness of the proposed model and inference algorithm.

Time series data, spanning applications ranging from climatology to finance to healthcare, presents significant challenges in data mining due to its size and complexity. One open issue lies in time series clustering, which is crucial for processing large volumes of unlabeled time series data and unlocking valuable insights. Traditional and modern analysis methods, however, often struggle with these complexities. To address these limitations, we introduce R-Clustering, a novel method that utilizes convolutional architectures with randomly selected parameters. Through extensive evaluations, R-Clustering demonstrates superior performance over existing methods in terms of clustering accuracy, computational efficiency and scalability. Empirical results obtained using the UCR archive demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across diverse time series datasets. The findings highlight the significance of R-Clustering in various domains and applications, contributing to the advancement of time series data mining.

Recent breakthroughs in synthetic data generation approaches made it possible to produce highly photorealistic images which are hardly distinguishable from real ones. Furthermore, synthetic generation pipelines have the potential to generate an unlimited number of images. The combination of high photorealism and scale turn synthetic data into a promising candidate for improving various machine learning (ML) pipelines. Thus far, a large body of research in this field has focused on using synthetic images for training, by augmenting and enlarging training data. In contrast to using synthetic data for training, in this work we explore whether synthetic data can be beneficial for model selection. Considering the task of image classification, we demonstrate that when data is scarce, synthetic data can be used to replace the held out validation set, thus allowing to train on a larger dataset. We also introduce a novel method to calibrate the synthetic error estimation to fit that of the real domain. We show that such calibration significantly improves the usefulness of synthetic data for model selection.

Mutual coherence is a measure of similarity between two opinions. Although the notion comes from philosophy, it is essential for a wide range of technologies, e.g., the Wahl-O-Mat system. In Germany, this system helps voters to find candidates that are the closest to their political preferences. The exact computation of mutual coherence is highly time-consuming due to the iteration over all subsets of an opinion. Moreover, for every subset, an instance of the SAT model counting problem has to be solved which is known to be a hard problem in computer science. This work is the first study to accelerate this computation. We model the distribution of the so-called confirmation values as a mixture of three Gaussians and present efficient heuristics to estimate its model parameters. The mutual coherence is then approximated with the expected value of the distribution. Some of the presented algorithms are fully polynomial-time, others only require solving a small number of instances of the SAT model counting problem. The average squared error of our best algorithm lies below 0.0035 which is insignificant if the efficiency is taken into account. Furthermore, the accuracy is precise enough to be used in Wahl-O-Mat-like systems.

Building an accurate surrogate model for the spatio-temporal outputs of a computer simulation is a challenging task. A simple approach to improve the accuracy of the surrogate is to cluster the outputs based on similarity and build a separate surrogate model for each cluster. This clustering is relatively straightforward when the output at each time step is of moderate size. However, when the spatial domain is represented by a large number of grid points, numbering in the millions, the clustering of the data becomes more challenging. In this report, we consider output data from simulations of a jet interacting with high explosives. These data are available on spatial domains of different sizes, at grid points that vary in their spatial coordinates, and in a format that distributes the output across multiple files at each time step of the simulation. We first describe how we bring these data into a consistent format prior to clustering. Borrowing the idea of random projections from data mining, we reduce the dimension of our data by a factor of thousand, making it possible to use the iterative k-means method for clustering. We show how we can use the randomness of both the random projections, and the choice of initial centroids in k-means clustering, to determine the number of clusters in our data set. Our approach makes clustering of extremely high dimensional data tractable, generating meaningful cluster assignments for our problem, despite the approximation introduced in the random projections.

Data in Knowledge Graphs often represents part of the current state of the real world. Thus, to stay up-to-date the graph data needs to be updated frequently. To utilize information from Knowledge Graphs, many state-of-the-art machine learning approaches use embedding techniques. These techniques typically compute an embedding, i.e., vector representations of the nodes as input for the main machine learning algorithm. If a graph update occurs later on -- specifically when nodes are added or removed -- the training has to be done all over again. This is undesirable, because of the time it takes and also because downstream models which were trained with these embeddings have to be retrained if they change significantly. In this paper, we investigate embedding updates that do not require full retraining and evaluate them in combination with various embedding models on real dynamic Knowledge Graphs covering multiple use cases. We study approaches that place newly appearing nodes optimally according to local information, but notice that this does not work well. However, we find that if we continue the training of the old embedding, interleaved with epochs during which we only optimize for the added and removed parts, we obtain good results in terms of typical metrics used in link prediction. This performance is obtained much faster than with a complete retraining and hence makes it possible to maintain embeddings for dynamic Knowledge Graphs.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Spectral clustering (SC) is a popular clustering technique to find strongly connected communities on a graph. SC can be used in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to implement pooling operations that aggregate nodes belonging to the same cluster. However, the eigendecomposition of the Laplacian is expensive and, since clustering results are graph-specific, pooling methods based on SC must perform a new optimization for each new sample. In this paper, we propose a graph clustering approach that addresses these limitations of SC. We formulate a continuous relaxation of the normalized minCUT problem and train a GNN to compute cluster assignments that minimize this objective. Our GNN-based implementation is differentiable, does not require to compute the spectral decomposition, and learns a clustering function that can be quickly evaluated on out-of-sample graphs. From the proposed clustering method, we design a graph pooling operator that overcomes some important limitations of state-of-the-art graph pooling techniques and achieves the best performance in several supervised and unsupervised tasks.

Graph convolutional network (GCN) has been successfully applied to many graph-based applications; however, training a large-scale GCN remains challenging. Current SGD-based algorithms suffer from either a high computational cost that exponentially grows with number of GCN layers, or a large space requirement for keeping the entire graph and the embedding of each node in memory. In this paper, we propose Cluster-GCN, a novel GCN algorithm that is suitable for SGD-based training by exploiting the graph clustering structure. Cluster-GCN works as the following: at each step, it samples a block of nodes that associate with a dense subgraph identified by a graph clustering algorithm, and restricts the neighborhood search within this subgraph. This simple but effective strategy leads to significantly improved memory and computational efficiency while being able to achieve comparable test accuracy with previous algorithms. To test the scalability of our algorithm, we create a new Amazon2M data with 2 million nodes and 61 million edges which is more than 5 times larger than the previous largest publicly available dataset (Reddit). For training a 3-layer GCN on this data, Cluster-GCN is faster than the previous state-of-the-art VR-GCN (1523 seconds vs 1961 seconds) and using much less memory (2.2GB vs 11.2GB). Furthermore, for training 4 layer GCN on this data, our algorithm can finish in around 36 minutes while all the existing GCN training algorithms fail to train due to the out-of-memory issue. Furthermore, Cluster-GCN allows us to train much deeper GCN without much time and memory overhead, which leads to improved prediction accuracy---using a 5-layer Cluster-GCN, we achieve state-of-the-art test F1 score 99.36 on the PPI dataset, while the previous best result was 98.71 by [16]. Our codes are publicly available at //github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/cluster_gcn.