Gaussian process (GP) regression is a fundamental tool in Bayesian statistics. It is also known as kriging and is the Bayesian counterpart to the frequentist kernel ridge regression. Most of the theoretical work on GP regression has focused on a large-$n$ asymptotics, characterising the behaviour of GP regression as the amount of data increases. Fixed-sample analysis is much more difficult outside of simple cases, such as locations on a regular grid. In this work we perform a fixed-sample analysis that was first studied in the context of approximation theory by Driscoll & Fornberg (2002), called the "flat limit". In flat-limit asymptotics, the goal is to characterise kernel methods as the length-scale of the kernel function tends to infinity, so that kernels appear flat over the range of the data. Surprisingly, this limit is well-defined, and displays interesting behaviour: Driscoll & Fornberg showed that radial basis interpolation converges in the flat limit to polynomial interpolation, if the kernel is Gaussian. Leveraging recent results on the spectral behaviour of kernel matrices in the flat limit, we study the flat limit of Gaussian process regression. Results show that Gaussian process regression tends in the flat limit to (multivariate) polynomial regression, or (polyharmonic) spline regression, depending on the kernel. Importantly, this holds for both the predictive mean and the predictive variance, so that the posterior predictive distributions become equivalent. Our results have practical consequences: for instance, they show that optimal GP predictions in the sense of leave-one-out loss may occur at very large length-scales, which would be invisible to current implementations because of numerical difficulties.
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Dropout is designed to relieve the overfitting problem in high-level vision tasks but is rarely applied in low-level vision tasks, like image super-resolution (SR). As a classic regression problem, SR exhibits a different behaviour as high-level tasks and is sensitive to the dropout operation. However, in this paper, we show that appropriate usage of dropout benefits SR networks and improves the generalization ability. Specifically, dropout is better embedded at the end of the network and is significantly helpful for the multi-degradation settings. This discovery breaks our common sense and inspires us to explore its working mechanism. We further use two analysis tools -- one is from recent network interpretation works, and the other is specially designed for this task. The analysis results provide side proofs to our experimental findings and show us a new perspective to understand SR networks.
Given an image with multiple people, our goal is to directly regress the pose and shape of all the people as well as their relative depth. Inferring the depth of a person in an image, however, is fundamentally ambiguous without knowing their height. This is particularly problematic when the scene contains people of very different sizes, e.g. from infants to adults. To solve this, we need several things. First, we develop a novel method to infer the poses and depth of multiple people in a single image. While previous work that estimates multiple people does so by reasoning in the image plane, our method, called BEV, adds an additional imaginary Bird's-Eye-View representation to explicitly reason about depth. BEV reasons simultaneously about body centers in the image and in depth and, by combing these, estimates 3D body position. Unlike prior work, BEV is a single-shot method that is end-to-end differentiable. Second, height varies with age, making it impossible to resolve depth without also estimating the age of people in the image. To do so, we exploit a 3D body model space that lets BEV infer shapes from infants to adults. Third, to train BEV, we need a new dataset. Specifically, we create a "Relative Human" (RH) dataset that includes age labels and relative depth relationships between the people in the images. Extensive experiments on RH and AGORA demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and training scheme. BEV outperforms existing methods on depth reasoning, child shape estimation, and robustness to occlusion. The code and dataset are released for research purposes.
This tutorial aims to provide an intuitive understanding of the Gaussian processes regression. Gaussian processes regression (GPR) models have been widely used in machine learning applications because of their representation flexibility and inherent uncertainty measures over predictions. The basic concepts that a Gaussian process is built on, including multivariate normal distribution, kernels, non-parametric models, and joint and conditional probability were explained first. Next, the GPR was described concisely together with an implementation of a standard GPR algorithm. Beyond the standard GPR, packages to implement state-of-the-art Gaussian processes algorithms were reviewed. This tutorial was written in an accessible way to make sure readers without a machine learning background can obtain a good understanding of the GPR basics.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.
This paper studies how well generative adversarial networks (GANs) learn probability distributions from finite samples. Our main results establish the convergence rates of GANs under a collection of integral probability metrics defined through H\"older classes, including the Wasserstein distance as a special case. We also show that GANs are able to adaptively learn data distributions with low-dimensional structures or have H\"older densities, when the network architectures are chosen properly. In particular, for distributions concentrated around a low-dimensional set, we show that the learning rates of GANs do not depend on the high ambient dimension, but on the lower intrinsic dimension. Our analysis is based on a new oracle inequality decomposing the estimation error into the generator and discriminator approximation error and the statistical error, which may be of independent interest.
We study the acceleration of the Local Polynomial Interpolation-based Gradient Descent method (LPI-GD) recently proposed for the approximate solution of empirical risk minimization problems (ERM). We focus on loss functions that are strongly convex and smooth with condition number $\sigma$. We additionally assume the loss function is $\eta$-H\"older continuous with respect to the data. The oracle complexity of LPI-GD is $\tilde{O}\left(\sigma m^d \log(1/\varepsilon)\right)$ for a desired accuracy $\varepsilon$, where $d$ is the dimension of the parameter space, and $m$ is the cardinality of an approximation grid. The factor $m^d$ can be shown to scale as $O((1/\varepsilon)^{d/2\eta})$. LPI-GD has been shown to have better oracle complexity than gradient descent (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for certain parameter regimes. We propose two accelerated methods for the ERM problem based on LPI-GD and show an oracle complexity of $\tilde{O}\left(\sqrt{\sigma} m^d \log(1/\varepsilon)\right)$. Moreover, we provide the first empirical study on local polynomial interpolation-based gradient methods and corroborate that LPI-GD has better performance than GD and SGD in some scenarios, and the proposed methods achieve acceleration.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
Recent advances in computer vision has led to a growth of interest in deploying visual analytics model on mobile devices. However, most mobile devices have limited computing power, which prohibits them from running large scale visual analytics neural networks. An emerging approach to solve this problem is to offload the computation of these neural networks to computing resources at an edge server. Efficient computation offloading requires optimizing the trade-off between multiple objectives including compressed data rate, analytics performance, and computation speed. In this work, we consider a "split computation" system to offload a part of the computation of the YOLO object detection model. We propose a learnable feature compression approach to compress the intermediate YOLO features with light-weight computation. We train the feature compression and decompression module together with the YOLO model to optimize the object detection accuracy under a rate constraint. Compared to baseline methods that apply either standard image compression or learned image compression at the mobile and perform image decompression and YOLO at the edge, the proposed system achieves higher detection accuracy at the low to medium rate range. Furthermore, the proposed system requires substantially lower computation time on the mobile device with CPU only.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.
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