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Motivated by the abundance of uncertain event data from multiple sources including physical devices and sensors, this paper presents the task of relating a stochastic process observation to a process model that can be rendered from a dataset. In contrast to previous research that suggested to transform a stochastically known event log into a less informative uncertain log with upper and lower bounds on activity frequencies, we consider the challenge of accommodating the probabilistic knowledge into conformance checking techniques. Based on a taxonomy that captures the spectrum of conformance checking cases under stochastic process observations, we present three types of challenging cases. The first includes conformance checking of a stochastically known log with respect to a given process model. The second case extends the first to classify a stochastically known log into one of several process models. The third case extends the two previous ones into settings in which process models are only stochastically known. The suggested problem captures the increasingly growing number of applications in which sensors provide probabilistic process information.

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Processing 是一門開源編(bian)程(cheng)語言和(he)(he)與之配套的(de)集成開發(fa)環境(IDE)的(de)名稱。Processing 在電(dian)子藝(yi)術(shu)和(he)(he)視覺設計社區被用來教授編(bian)程(cheng)基礎,并運用于大(da)量的(de)新媒體和(he)(he)互動(dong)藝(yi)術(shu)作品中。

Probabilistic databases (PDBs) model uncertainty in data in a quantitative way. In the established formal framework, probabilistic (relational) databases are finite probability spaces over relational database instances. This finiteness can clash with intuitive query behavior (Ceylan et al., KR 2016), and with application scenarios that are better modeled by continuous probability distributions (Dalvi et al., CACM 2009). We formally introduced infinite PDBs in (Grohe and Lindner, PODS 2019) with a primary focus on countably infinite spaces. However, an extension beyond countable probability spaces raises nontrivial foundational issues concerned with the measurability of events and queries and ultimately with the question whether queries have a well-defined semantics. We argue that finite point processes are an appropriate model from probability theory for dealing with general probabilistic databases. This allows us to construct suitable (uncountable) probability spaces of database instances in a systematic way. Our main technical results are measurability statements for relational algebra queries as well as aggregate queries and Datalog queries.

In this work we study the fundamental limits of approximate recovery in the context of group testing. One of the most well-known, theoretically optimal, and easy to implement testing procedures is the non-adaptive Bernoulli group testing problem, where all tests are conducted in parallel, and each item is chosen to be part of any certain test independently with some fixed probability. In this setting, there is an observed gap between the number of tests above which recovery is information theoretically (IT) possible, and the number of tests required by the currently best known efficient algorithms to succeed. Often times such gaps are explained by a phase transition in the landscape of the solution space of the problem (an Overlap Gap Property phase transition). In this paper we seek to understand whether such a phenomenon takes place for Bernoulli group testing as well. Our main contributions are the following: (1) We provide first moment evidence that, perhaps surprisingly, such a phase transition does not take place throughout the regime for which recovery is IT possible. This fact suggests that the model is in fact amenable to local search algorithms ; (2) we prove the complete absence of "bad" local minima for a part of the "hard" regime, a fact which implies an improvement over known theoretical results on the performance of efficient algorithms for approximate recovery without false-negatives, and finally (3) we present extensive simulations that strongly suggest that a very simple local algorithm known as Glauber Dynamics does indeed succeed, and can be used to efficiently implement the well-known (theoretically optimal) Smallest Satisfying Set (SSS) estimator.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

In real-world applications, data often come in a growing manner, where the data volume and the number of classes may increase dynamically. This will bring a critical challenge for learning: given the increasing data volume or the number of classes, one has to instantaneously adjust the neural model capacity to obtain promising performance. Existing methods either ignore the growing nature of data or seek to independently search an optimal architecture for a given dataset, and thus are incapable of promptly adjusting the architectures for the changed data. To address this, we present a neural architecture adaptation method, namely Adaptation eXpert (AdaXpert), to efficiently adjust previous architectures on the growing data. Specifically, we introduce an architecture adjuster to generate a suitable architecture for each data snapshot, based on the previous architecture and the different extent between current and previous data distributions. Furthermore, we propose an adaptation condition to determine the necessity of adjustment, thereby avoiding unnecessary and time-consuming adjustments. Extensive experiments on two growth scenarios (increasing data volume and number of classes) demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Optimal transport distances have found many applications in machine learning for their capacity to compare non-parametric probability distributions. Yet their algorithmic complexity generally prevents their direct use on large scale datasets. Among the possible strategies to alleviate this issue, practitioners can rely on computing estimates of these distances over subsets of data, {\em i.e.} minibatches. While computationally appealing, we highlight in this paper some limits of this strategy, arguing it can lead to undesirable smoothing effects. As an alternative, we suggest that the same minibatch strategy coupled with unbalanced optimal transport can yield more robust behavior. We discuss the associated theoretical properties, such as unbiased estimators, existence of gradients and concentration bounds. Our experimental study shows that in challenging problems associated to domain adaptation, the use of unbalanced optimal transport leads to significantly better results, competing with or surpassing recent baselines.

Recommender systems exploit interaction history to estimate user preference, having been heavily used in a wide range of industry applications. However, static recommendation models are difficult to answer two important questions well due to inherent shortcomings: (a) What exactly does a user like? (b) Why does a user like an item? The shortcomings are due to the way that static models learn user preference, i.e., without explicit instructions and active feedback from users. The recent rise of conversational recommender systems (CRSs) changes this situation fundamentally. In a CRS, users and the system can dynamically communicate through natural language interactions, which provide unprecedented opportunities to explicitly obtain the exact preference of users. Considerable efforts, spread across disparate settings and applications, have been put into developing CRSs. Existing models, technologies, and evaluation methods for CRSs are far from mature. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of the techniques used in current CRSs. We summarize the key challenges of developing CRSs into five directions: (1) Question-based user preference elicitation. (2) Multi-turn conversational recommendation strategies. (3) Dialogue understanding and generation. (4) Exploitation-exploration trade-offs. (5) Evaluation and user simulation. These research directions involve multiple research fields like information retrieval (IR), natural language processing (NLP), and human-computer interaction (HCI). Based on these research directions, we discuss some future challenges and opportunities. We provide a road map for researchers from multiple communities to get started in this area. We hope this survey helps to identify and address challenges in CRSs and inspire future research.

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.

There is a resurgent interest in developing intelligent open-domain dialog systems due to the availability of large amounts of conversational data and the recent progress on neural approaches to conversational AI. Unlike traditional task-oriented bots, an open-domain dialog system aims to establish long-term connections with users by satisfying the human need for communication, affection, and social belonging. This paper reviews the recent works on neural approaches that are devoted to addressing three challenges in developing such systems: semantics, consistency, and interactiveness. Semantics requires a dialog system to not only understand the content of the dialog but also identify user's social needs during the conversation. Consistency requires the system to demonstrate a consistent personality to win users trust and gain their long-term confidence. Interactiveness refers to the system's ability to generate interpersonal responses to achieve particular social goals such as entertainment, conforming, and task completion. The works we select to present here is based on our unique views and are by no means complete. Nevertheless, we hope that the discussion will inspire new research in developing more intelligent dialog systems.

We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.

A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the structure of such complex data, but performing these inferences is generally difficult. Message-passing algorithms, such as belief propagation, are a natural way to disseminate evidence amongst correlated variables while exploiting the graph structure, but these algorithms can struggle when the conditional dependency graphs contain loops. Here we use Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to learn a message-passing algorithm that solves these inference tasks. We first show that the architecture of GNNs is well-matched to inference tasks. We then demonstrate the efficacy of this inference approach by training GNNs on a collection of graphical models and showing that they substantially outperform belief propagation on loopy graphs. Our message-passing algorithms generalize out of the training set to larger graphs and graphs with different structure.

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