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Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction problems. This is particularly true for large, complex organizations which may not be well defined by a single industry and have no clear peers. To enable prediction using company information across a variety of dimensions, we create an embedding of company stocks, Stock2Vec, which can be easily added to any prediction model that applies to companies with associated stock prices. We describe the process of creating this rich vector representation from stock price fluctuations, and characterize what the dimensions represent. We then conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate this embedding in applied machine learning problems in various business contexts. Our experiment results demonstrate that the four features in the Stock2Vec embedding can readily augment existing cross-company models and enhance cross-company predictions.

This study concentrates on clustering problems and aims to find compact clusters that are informative regarding the outcome variable. The main goal is partitioning data points so that observations in each cluster are similar and the outcome variable can be predicated using these clusters simultaneously. We model this semi-supervised clustering problem as a multi-objective optimization problem with considering deviation of data points in clusters and prediction error of the outcome variable as two objective functions to be minimized. For finding optimal clustering solutions, we employ a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II approach and local regression is applied as prediction method for the output variable. For comparing the performance of the proposed model, we compute seven models using five real-world data sets. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of using local regression for predicting the outcome variable in all models, and examine the performance of the multi-objective models compared to single-objective models.

Predicting the supply and demand of transport systems is vital for efficient traffic management, control, optimization, and planning. For example, predicting where from/to and when people intend to travel by taxi can support fleet managers to distribute resources; better predicting traffic speeds/congestion allows for pro-active control measures or for users to better choose their paths. Making spatio-temporal predictions is known to be a hard task, but recently Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely applied on non-euclidean spatial data. However, most GNN models require a predefined graph, and so far, researchers rely on heuristics to generate this graph for the model to use. In this paper, we use Neural Relational Inference to learn the optimal graph for the model. Our approach has several advantages: 1) a Variational Auto Encoder structure allows for the graph to be dynamically determined by the data, potentially changing through time; 2) the encoder structure allows the use of external data in the generation of the graph; 3) it is possible to place Bayesian priors on the generated graphs to encode domain knowledge. We conduct experiments on two datasets, namely the NYC Yellow Taxi and the PEMS road traffic datasets. In both datasets, we outperform benchmarks and show performance comparable to state-of-the-art. Furthermore, we do an in-depth analysis of the learned graphs, providing insights on what kinds of connections GNNs use for spatio-temporal predictions in the transport domain.

Most existing knowledge graphs suffer from incompleteness, which can be alleviated by inferring missing links based on known facts. One popular way to accomplish this is to generate low-dimensional embeddings of entities and relations, and use these to make inferences. ConvE, a recently proposed approach, applies convolutional filters on 2D reshapings of entity and relation embeddings in order to capture rich interactions between their components. However, the number of interactions that ConvE can capture is limited. In this paper, we analyze how increasing the number of these interactions affects link prediction performance, and utilize our observations to propose InteractE. InteractE is based on three key ideas -- feature permutation, a novel feature reshaping, and circular convolution. Through extensive experiments, we find that InteractE outperforms state-of-the-art convolutional link prediction baselines on FB15k-237. Further, InteractE achieves an MRR score that is 9%, 7.5%, and 23% better than ConvE on the FB15k-237, WN18RR and YAGO3-10 datasets respectively. The results validate our central hypothesis -- that increasing feature interaction is beneficial to link prediction performance. We make the source code of InteractE available to encourage reproducible research.

We present an approach to learn an object-centric forward model, and show that this allows us to plan for sequences of actions to achieve distant desired goals. We propose to model a scene as a collection of objects, each with an explicit spatial location and implicit visual feature, and learn to model the effects of actions using random interaction data. Our model allows capturing the robot-object and object-object interactions, and leads to more sample-efficient and accurate predictions. We show that this learned model can be leveraged to search for action sequences that lead to desired goal configurations, and that in conjunction with a learned correction module, this allows for robust closed loop execution. We present experiments both in simulation and the real world, and show that our approach improves over alternate implicit or pixel-space forward models. Please see our project page (//judyye.github.io/ocmpc/) for result videos.

Predictive models of student success in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are a critical component of effective content personalization and adaptive interventions. In this article we review the state of the art in predictive models of student success in MOOCs and present a categorization of MOOC research according to the predictors (features), prediction (outcomes), and underlying theoretical model. We critically survey work across each category, providing data on the raw data source, feature engineering, statistical model, evaluation method, prediction architecture, and other aspects of these experiments. Such a review is particularly useful given the rapid expansion of predictive modeling research in MOOCs since the emergence of major MOOC platforms in 2012. This survey reveals several key methodological gaps, which include extensive filtering of experimental subpopulations, ineffective student model evaluation, and the use of experimental data which would be unavailable for real-world student success prediction and intervention, which is the ultimate goal of such models. Finally, we highlight opportunities for future research, which include temporal modeling, research bridging predictive and explanatory student models, work which contributes to learning theory, and evaluating long-term learner success in MOOCs.

Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.

The aim of knowledge graphs is to gather knowledge about the world and provide a structured representation of this knowledge. Current knowledge graphs are far from complete. To address the incompleteness of the knowledge graphs, link prediction approaches have been developed which make probabilistic predictions about new links in a knowledge graph given the existing links. Tensor factorization approaches have proven promising for such link prediction problems. In this paper, we develop a simple tensor factorization model called SimplE, through a slight modification of the Polyadic Decomposition model from 1927. The complexity of SimplE grows linearly with the size of embeddings. The embeddings learned through SimplE are interpretable, and certain types of expert knowledge in terms of logical rules can be incorporated into these embeddings through weight tying. We prove SimplE is fully-expressive and derive a bound on the size of its embeddings for full expressivity. We show empirically that, despite its simplicity, SimplE outperforms several state-of-the-art tensor factorization techniques.

Recommender systems rely on large datasets of historical data and entail serious privacy risks. A server offering recommendations as a service to a client might leak more information than necessary regarding its recommendation model and training dataset. At the same time, the disclosure of the client's preferences to the server is also a matter of concern. Providing recommendations while preserving privacy in both senses is a difficult task, which often comes into conflict with the utility of the system in terms of its recommendation-accuracy and efficiency. Widely-purposed cryptographic primitives such as secure multi-party computation and homomorphic encryption offer strong security guarantees, but in conjunction with state-of-the-art recommender systems yield far-from-practical solutions. We precisely define the above notion of security and propose CryptoRec, a novel recommendations-as-a-service protocol, which encompasses a crypto-friendly recommender system. This model possesses two interesting properties: (1) It models user-item interactions in a user-free latent feature space in which it captures personalized user features by an aggregation of item features. This means that a server with a pre-trained model can provide recommendations for a client without having to re-train the model with the client's preferences. Nevertheless, re-training the model still improves accuracy. (2) It only uses addition and multiplication operations, making the model straightforwardly compatible with homomorphic encryption schemes.

We present DeepWalk, a novel approach for learning latent representations of vertices in a network. These latent representations encode social relations in a continuous vector space, which is easily exploited by statistical models. DeepWalk generalizes recent advancements in language modeling and unsupervised feature learning (or deep learning) from sequences of words to graphs. DeepWalk uses local information obtained from truncated random walks to learn latent representations by treating walks as the equivalent of sentences. We demonstrate DeepWalk's latent representations on several multi-label network classification tasks for social networks such as BlogCatalog, Flickr, and YouTube. Our results show that DeepWalk outperforms challenging baselines which are allowed a global view of the network, especially in the presence of missing information. DeepWalk's representations can provide $F_1$ scores up to 10% higher than competing methods when labeled data is sparse. In some experiments, DeepWalk's representations are able to outperform all baseline methods while using 60% less training data. DeepWalk is also scalable. It is an online learning algorithm which builds useful incremental results, and is trivially parallelizable. These qualities make it suitable for a broad class of real world applications such as network classification, and anomaly detection.