Machine learning systems are often applied to data that is drawn from a different distribution than the training distribution. Recent work has shown that for a variety of classification and signal reconstruction problems, the out-of-distribution performance is strongly linearly correlated with the in-distribution performance. If this relationship or more generally a monotonic one holds, it has important consequences. For example, it allows to optimize performance on one distribution as a proxy for performance on the other. In this paper, we study conditions under which a monotonic relationship between the performances of a model on two distributions is expected. We prove an exact asymptotic linear relation for squared error and a monotonic relation for misclassification error for ridge-regularized general linear models under covariate shift, as well as an approximate linear relation for linear inverse problems.
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We introduce a new setting, optimize-and-estimate structured bandits. Here, a policy must select a batch of arms, each characterized by its own context, that would allow it to both maximize reward and maintain an accurate (ideally unbiased) population estimate of the reward. This setting is inherent to many public and private sector applications and often requires handling delayed feedback, small data, and distribution shifts. We demonstrate its importance on real data from the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The IRS performs yearly audits of the tax base. Two of its most important objectives are to identify suspected misreporting and to estimate the "tax gap" -- the global difference between the amount paid and true amount owed. Based on a unique collaboration with the IRS, we cast these two processes as a unified optimize-and-estimate structured bandit. We analyze optimize-and-estimate approaches to the IRS problem and propose a novel mechanism for unbiased population estimation that achieves rewards comparable to baseline approaches. This approach has the potential to improve audit efficacy, while maintaining policy-relevant estimates of the tax gap. This has important social consequences given that the current tax gap is estimated at nearly half a trillion dollars. We suggest that this problem setting is fertile ground for further research and we highlight its interesting challenges. The results of this and related research are currently being incorporated into the continual improvement of the IRS audit selection methods.
Permutation tests date back nearly a century to Fisher's randomized experiments, and remain an immensely popular statistical tool, used for testing hypotheses of independence between variables and other common inferential questions. Much of the existing literature has emphasized that, for the permutation p-value to be valid, one must first pick a subgroup $G$ of permutations (which could equal the full group) and then recalculate the test statistic on permuted data using either an exhaustive enumeration of $G$, or a sample from $G$ drawn uniformly at random. In this work, we demonstrate that the focus on subgroups and uniform sampling are both unnecessary for validity -- in fact, a simple random modification of the permutation p-value remains valid even when using an arbitrary distribution (not necessarily uniform) over any subset of permutations (not necessarily a subgroup). We provide a unified theoretical treatment of such generalized permutation tests, recovering all known results from the literature as special cases. Thus, this work expands the flexibility of the permutation test toolkit available to the practitioner.
Labeling large image datasets with attributes such as facial age or object type is tedious and sometimes infeasible. Supervised machine learning methods provide a highly accurate solution, but require manual labels which are often unavailable. Zero-shot models (e.g., CLIP) do not require manual labels but are not as accurate as supervised ones, particularly when the attribute is numeric. We propose a new approach, CLIPPR (CLIP with Priors), which adapts zero-shot models for regression and classification on unlabelled datasets. Our method does not use any annotated images. Instead, we assume a prior over the label distribution in the dataset. We then train an adapter network on top of CLIP under two competing objectives: i) minimal change of predictions from the original CLIP model ii) minimal distance between predicted and prior distribution of labels. Additionally, we present a novel approach for selecting prompts for Vision & Language models using a distributional prior. Our method is effective and presents a significant improvement over the original model. We demonstrate an improvement of 28% in mean absolute error on the UTK age regression task. We also present promising results for classification benchmarks, improving the classification accuracy on the ImageNet dataset by 2.83%, without using any labels.
Interpretability is a pressing issue for machine learning. Common approaches to interpretable machine learning constrain interactions between features of the input, rendering the effects of those features on a model's output comprehensible but at the expense of model complexity. We approach interpretability from a new angle: constrain the information about the features without restricting the complexity of the model. Borrowing from information theory, we use the Distributed Information Bottleneck to find optimal compressions of each feature that maximally preserve information about the output. The learned information allocation, by feature and by feature value, provides rich opportunities for interpretation, particularly in problems with many features and complex feature interactions. The central object of analysis is not a single trained model, but rather a spectrum of models serving as approximations that leverage variable amounts of information about the inputs. Information is allocated to features by their relevance to the output, thereby solving the problem of feature selection by constructing a learned continuum of feature inclusion-to-exclusion. The optimal compression of each feature -- at every stage of approximation -- allows fine-grained inspection of the distinctions among feature values that are most impactful for prediction. We develop a framework for extracting insight from the spectrum of approximate models and demonstrate its utility on a range of tabular datasets.
Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.
The increasing reliance on ML models in high-stakes tasks has raised a major concern on fairness violations. Although there has been a surge of work that improves algorithmic fairness, most of them are under the assumption of an identical training and test distribution. In many real-world applications, however, such an assumption is often violated as previously trained fair models are often deployed in a different environment, and the fairness of such models has been observed to collapse. In this paper, we study how to transfer model fairness under distribution shifts, a widespread issue in practice. We conduct a fine-grained analysis of how the fair model is affected under different types of distribution shifts and find that domain shifts are more challenging than subpopulation shifts. Inspired by the success of self-training in transferring accuracy under domain shifts, we derive a sufficient condition for transferring group fairness. Guided by it, we propose a practical algorithm with a fair consistency regularization as the key component. A synthetic dataset benchmark, which covers all types of distribution shifts, is deployed for experimental verification of the theoretical findings. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets including image and tabular data demonstrate that our approach effectively transfers fairness and accuracy under various distribution shifts.
Surrogate models have shown to be an extremely efficient aid in solving engineering problems that require repeated evaluations of an expensive computational model. They are built by sparsely evaluating the costly original model and have provided a way to solve otherwise intractable problems. A crucial aspect in surrogate modelling is the assumption of smoothness and regularity of the model to approximate. This assumption is however not always met in reality. For instance in civil or mechanical engineering, some models may present discontinuities or non-smoothness, e.g., in case of instability patterns such as buckling or snap-through. Building a single surrogate model capable of accounting for these fundamentally different behaviors or discontinuities is not an easy task. In this paper, we propose a three-stage approach for the approximation of non-smooth functions which combines clustering, classification and regression. The idea is to split the space following the localized behaviors or regimes of the system and build local surrogates that are eventually assembled. A sequence of well-known machine learning techniques are used: Dirichlet process mixtures models (DPMM), support vector machines and Gaussian process modelling. The approach is tested and validated on two analytical functions and a finite element model of a tensile membrane structure.
Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection has received broad attention over the years, aiming to ensure the reliability and safety of deep neural networks (DNNs) in real-world scenarios by rejecting incorrect predictions. However, we notice a discrepancy between the conventional evaluation vs. the essential purpose of OOD detection. On the one hand, the conventional evaluation exclusively considers risks caused by label-space distribution shifts while ignoring the risks from input-space distribution shifts. On the other hand, the conventional evaluation reward detection methods for not rejecting the misclassified image in the validation dataset. However, the misclassified image can also cause risks and should be rejected. We appeal to rethink OOD detection from a human-centric perspective, that a proper detection method should reject the case that the deep model's prediction mismatches the human expectations and adopt the case that the deep model's prediction meets the human expectations. We propose a human-centric evaluation and conduct extensive experiments on 45 classifiers and 8 test datasets. We find that the simple baseline OOD detection method can achieve comparable and even better performance than the recently proposed methods, which means that the development in OOD detection in the past years may be overestimated. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that model selection is non-trivial for OOD detection and should be considered as an integral of the proposed method, which differs from the claim in existing works that proposed methods are universal across different models.
Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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