The regression discontinuity (RD) design is widely used for program evaluation with observational data. The RD design enables the identification of the local average treatment effect (LATE) at the treatment cutoff by exploiting known deterministic treatment assignment mechanisms. The primary focus of the existing literature has been the development of rigorous estimation methods for the LATE. In contrast, we consider policy learning under the RD design. We develop a robust optimization approach to finding an optimal treatment cutoff that improves upon the existing one. Under the RD design, policy learning requires extrapolation. We address this problem by partially identifying the conditional expectation function of counterfactual outcome under a smoothness assumption commonly used for the estimation of LATE. We then minimize the worst case regret relative to the status quo policy. The resulting new treatment cutoffs have a safety guarantee, enabling policy makers to limit the probability that they yield a worse outcome than the existing cutoff. Going beyond the standard single-cutoff case, we generalize the proposed methodology to the multi-cutoff RD design by developing a doubly robust estimator. We establish the asymptotic regret bounds for the learned policy using semi-parametric efficiency theory. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to empirical and simulated data sets.
相關內容
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies without the standard assumption of unconfoundedness. We propose a new framework of robust causal inference under the general observational study setting with the possible existence of unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on the method of distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first specify the maximal degree to which the distribution of unobserved potential outcomes may deviate from that of obsered outcomes. We then derive sharp bounds on the average treatment effects under this assumption. Our framework encompasses the popular marginal sensitivity model as a special case and can be extended to the difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity designs as well as instrumental variables. Through simulation and empirical studies, we demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology to real-world settings.
Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the treatment of one individual influences the outcomes of others. All existing approaches require at least approximate knowledge of the network, which may be unavailable and costly to collect. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), or the average difference between the outcomes when the whole population is treated versus when the whole population is untreated. By leveraging a staggered rollout design, in which treatment is incrementally given to random subsets of individuals, we derive unbiased estimators for TTE that do not rely on any prior structural knowledge of the network, as long as the network interference effects are constrained to low-degree interactions among neighbors of an individual. We derive bounds on the variance of the estimators, and we show in experiments that our estimator performs well against baselines on simulated data. Central to our theoretical contribution is a connection between staggered rollout observations and polynomial extrapolation.
Unsupervised mixture learning (UML) aims at identifying linearly or nonlinearly mixed latent components in a blind manner. UML is known to be challenging: Even learning linear mixtures requires highly nontrivial analytical tools, e.g., independent component analysis or nonnegative matrix factorization. In this work, the post-nonlinear (PNL) mixture model -- where unknown element-wise nonlinear functions are imposed onto a linear mixture -- is revisited. The PNL model is widely employed in different fields ranging from brain signal classification, speech separation, remote sensing, to causal discovery. To identify and remove the unknown nonlinear functions, existing works often assume different properties on the latent components (e.g., statistical independence or probability-simplex structures). This work shows that under a carefully designed UML criterion, the existence of a nontrivial null space associated with the underlying mixing system suffices to guarantee identification/removal of the unknown nonlinearity. Compared to prior works, our finding largely relaxes the conditions of attaining PNL identifiability, and thus may benefit applications where no strong structural information on the latent components is known. A finite-sample analysis is offered to characterize the performance of the proposed approach under realistic settings. To implement the proposed learning criterion, a block coordinate descent algorithm is proposed. A series of numerical experiments corroborate our theoretical claims.
Privacy concerns in federated learning (FL) are commonly addressed with secure aggregation schemes that prevent a central party from observing plaintext client updates. However, most such schemes neglect orthogonal FL research that aims at reducing communication between clients and the aggregator and is instrumental in facilitating cross-device FL with thousands and even millions of (mobile) participants. In particular, quantization techniques can typically reduce client-server communication by a factor of 32x. In this paper, we unite both research directions by introducing an efficient secure aggregation framework based on outsourced multi-party computation (MPC) that supports any linear quantization scheme. Specifically, we design a novel approximate version of an MPC-based secure aggregation protocol with support for multiple stochastic quantization schemes, including ones that utilize the randomized Hadamard transform and Kashin's representation. In our empirical performance evaluation, we show that with no additional overhead for clients and moderate inter-server communication, we achieve similar training accuracy as insecure schemes for standard FL benchmarks. Beyond this, we present an efficient extension to our secure quantized aggregation framework that effectively defends against state-of-the-art untargeted poisoning attacks.
The prevalence of data scraping from social media as a means to obtain datasets has led to growing concerns regarding unauthorized use of data. Data poisoning attacks have been proposed as a bulwark against scraping, as they make data "unlearnable" by adding small, imperceptible perturbations. Unfortunately, existing methods require knowledge of both the target architecture and the complete dataset so that a surrogate network can be trained, the parameters of which are used to generate the attack. In this work, we introduce autoregressive (AR) poisoning, a method that can generate poisoned data without access to the broader dataset. The proposed AR perturbations are generic, can be applied across different datasets, and can poison different architectures. Compared to existing unlearnable methods, our AR poisons are more resistant against common defenses such as adversarial training and strong data augmentations. Our analysis further provides insight into what makes an effective data poison.
Sparse decision trees are one of the most common forms of interpretable models. While recent advances have produced algorithms that fully optimize sparse decision trees for prediction, that work does not address policy design, because the algorithms cannot handle weighted data samples. Specifically, they rely on the discreteness of the loss function, which means that real-valued weights cannot be directly used. For example, none of the existing techniques produce policies that incorporate inverse propensity weighting on individual data points. We present three algorithms for efficient sparse weighted decision tree optimization. The first approach directly optimizes the weighted loss function; however, it tends to be computationally inefficient for large datasets. Our second approach, which scales more efficiently, transforms weights to integer values and uses data duplication to transform the weighted decision tree optimization problem into an unweighted (but larger) counterpart. Our third algorithm, which scales to much larger datasets, uses a randomized procedure that samples each data point with a probability proportional to its weight. We present theoretical bounds on the error of the two fast methods and show experimentally that these methods can be two orders of magnitude faster than the direct optimization of the weighted loss, without losing significant accuracy.
We consider estimation and inference for a regression coefficient in a panel setting with time and individual specific effects which follow a factor structure. Previous approaches to this model require a "strong factor" assumption, which allows the factors to be consistently estimated, thereby removing omitted variable bias due to the unobserved factors. We propose confidence intervals (CIs) that are robust to failure of this assumption, along with estimators that achieve better rates of convergence than previous methods when factors may be weak. Our approach applies the theory of minimax linear estimation to form a debiased estimate using a nuclear norm bound on the error of an initial estimate of the individual effects. In Monte Carlo experiments, we find a substantial improvement over conventional approaches when factors are weak, with little cost to estimation error when factors are strong.
We derive a simple unified framework giving closed-form estimates for the test risk and other generalization metrics of kernel ridge regression (KRR). Relative to prior work, our derivations are greatly simplified and our final expressions are more readily interpreted. These improvements are enabled by our identification of a sharp conservation law which limits the ability of KRR to learn any orthonormal basis of functions. Test risk and other objects of interest are expressed transparently in terms of our conserved quantity evaluated in the kernel eigenbasis. We use our improved framework to: i) provide a theoretical explanation for the "deep bootstrap" of Nakkiran et al (2020), ii) generalize a previous result regarding the hardness of the classic parity problem, iii) fashion a theoretical tool for the study of adversarial robustness, and iv) draw a tight analogy between KRR and a well-studied system in statistical physics.
Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as practical limits to model fidelity. In order to circumvent these difficulties, we argue that modellers must treat simulators as idealistic representations of the true data generating process, and consequently should thoughtfully consider the risk of model misspecification. In this work we revisit neural posterior estimation (NPE), a class of algorithms that enable black-box parameter inference in simulation models, and consider the implication of a simulation-to-reality gap. While recent works have demonstrated reliable performance of these methods, the analyses have been performed using synthetic data generated by the simulator model itself, and have therefore only addressed the well-specified case. In this paper, we find that the presence of misspecification, in contrast, leads to unreliable inference when NPE is used naively. As a remedy we argue that principled scientific inquiry with simulators should incorporate a model criticism component, to facilitate interpretable identification of misspecification and a robust inference component, to fit 'wrong but useful' models. We propose robust neural posterior estimation (RNPE), an extension of NPE to simultaneously achieve both these aims, through explicitly modelling the discrepancies between simulations and the observed data. We assess the approach on a range of artificially misspecified examples, and find RNPE performs well across the tasks, whereas naively using NPE leads to misleading and erratic posteriors.
Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) is a powerful paradigm for inferring a reward function from expert demonstrations. Many IRL algorithms require a known transition model and sometimes even a known expert policy, or they at least require access to a generative model. However, these assumptions are too strong for many real-world applications, where the environment can be accessed only through sequential interaction. We propose a novel IRL algorithm: Active exploration for Inverse Reinforcement Learning (AceIRL), which actively explores an unknown environment and expert policy to quickly learn the expert's reward function and identify a good policy. AceIRL uses previous observations to construct confidence intervals that capture plausible reward functions and find exploration policies that focus on the most informative regions of the environment. AceIRL is the first approach to active IRL with sample-complexity bounds that does not require a generative model of the environment. AceIRL matches the sample complexity of active IRL with a generative model in the worst case. Additionally, we establish a problem-dependent bound that relates the sample complexity of AceIRL to the suboptimality gap of a given IRL problem. We empirically evaluate AceIRL in simulations and find that it significantly outperforms more naive exploration strategies.
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