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Loss reserving generally focuses on identifying a single model that can generate superior predictive performance. However, different loss reserving models specialise in capturing different aspects of loss data. This is recognised in practice in the sense that results from different models are often considered, and sometimes combined. For instance, actuaries may take a weighted average of the prediction outcomes from various loss reserving models, often based on subjective assessments. In this paper, we propose a systematic framework to objectively combine (i.e. ensemble) multiple _stochastic_ loss reserving models such that the strengths offered by different models can be utilised effectively. Our framework contains two main innovations compared to existing literature and practice. Firstly, our criteria model combination considers the full distributional properties of the ensemble and not just the central estimate - which is of particular importance in the reserving context. Secondly, our framework is that it is tailored for the features inherent to reserving data. These include, for instance, accident, development, calendar, and claim maturity effects. Crucially, the relative importance and scarcity of data across accident periods renders the problem distinct from the traditional ensembling techniques in statistical learning. Our framework is illustrated with a complex synthetic dataset. In the results, the optimised ensemble outperforms both (i) traditional model selection strategies, and (ii) an equally weighted ensemble. In particular, the improvement occurs not only with central estimates but also relevant quantiles, such as the 75th percentile of reserves (typically of interest to both insurers and regulators).

Automatically evaluate the correctness of programming assignments is rather straightforward using unit and integration tests. However, programming tasks can be solved in multiple ways, many of which, although correct, are inelegant. For instance, excessive branching, poor naming or repetitiveness make the code hard to understand and maintain. These subjective qualities of code are hard to automatically assess using current techniques. In this work we investigate the use of CodeBERT to automatically assign quality score to Java code. We experiment with different models and training paradigms. We explore the accuracy of the models on a novel dataset for code quality assessment. Finally, we assess the quality of the predictions using saliency maps. We find that code quality to some extent is predictable and that transformer based models using task adapted pre-training can solve the task more efficiently than other techniques.

This paper focuses on coordinating a robot swarm orbiting a convex path without collisions among the individuals. The individual robots lack braking capabilities and can only adjust their courses while maintaining their constant but different speeds. Instead of controlling the spatial relations between the robots, our formation control algorithm aims to deploy a dense robot swarm that mimics the behavior of tornado schooling fish. To achieve this objective safely, we employ a combination of a scalable overtaking rule, a guiding vector field, and a control barrier function with an adaptive radius to facilitate smooth overtakes. The decision-making process of the robots is distributed, relying only on local information. Practical applications include defensive structures or escorting missions with the added resiliency of a swarm without a centralized command. We provide a rigorous analysis of the proposed strategy and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations involving a high density of unicycles.

This article proposes a novel high-performance computing approach for the prediction of the temperature field in powder bed fusion (PBF) additive manufacturing processes. In contrast to many existing approaches to part-scale simulations, the underlying computational model consistently resolves physical scan tracks without additional heat source scaling, agglomeration strategies or any other heuristic modeling assumptions. A growing, adaptively refined mesh accurately captures all details of the laser beam motion. Critically, the fine spatial resolution required for resolved scan tracks in combination with the high scan velocities underlying these processes mandates the use of comparatively small time steps to resolve the underlying physics. Explicit time integration schemes are well-suited for this setting, while unconditionally stable implicit time integration schemes are employed for the interlayer cool down phase governed by significantly larger time scales. These two schemes are combined and implemented in an efficient fast operator evaluation framework providing significant performance gains and optimization opportunities. The capabilities of the novel framework are demonstrated through realistic AM examples on the centimeter scale including the first scan-resolved simulation of the entire NIST AM Benchmark cantilever specimen, with a computation time of less than one day. Apart from physical insights gained through these simulation examples, also numerical aspects are thoroughly studied on basis of weak and strong parallel scaling tests. As potential applications, the proposed thermal PBF simulation framework can serve as a basis for microstructure and thermo-mechanical predictions on the part-scale, but also to assess the influence of scan pattern and part geometry on melt pool shape and temperature, which are important indicators for well-known process instabilities.

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting data linkage offers a potential solution to mitigate unmeasured confounding within a primary study of interest. However, this approach often introduces selection bias, as data linkage is feasible only for a subset of the study population. To address this concern, we explore three nonparametric identification strategies under the assumption that a unit' s inclusion in the linked cohort is determined solely by the observed confounders, while acknowledging that the ignorability assumption may depend on some partially unobserved covariates. The existence of multiple identification strategies motivates the development of estimators that effectively capture distinct components of the observed data distribution. Appropriately combining these estimators yields triply robust estimators for the average treatment effect. These estimators remain consistent if at least one of the three distinct parts of the observed data law is correct. Moreover, they are locally efficient if all the models are correctly specified. We evaluate the proposed estimators using simulation studies and real data analysis.

Next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation is a critical task in location-based services that aim to provide personalized suggestions for the user's next destination. Previous works on POI recommendation have laid focused on modeling the user's spatial preference. However, existing works that leverage spatial information are only based on the aggregation of users' previous visited positions, which discourages the model from recommending POIs in novel areas. This trait of position-based methods will harm the model's performance in many situations. Additionally, incorporating sequential information into the user's spatial preference remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose Diff-POI: a Diffusion-based model that samples the user's spatial preference for the next POI recommendation. Inspired by the wide application of diffusion algorithm in sampling from distributions, Diff-POI encodes the user's visiting sequence and spatial character with two tailor-designed graph encoding modules, followed by a diffusion-based sampling strategy to explore the user's spatial visiting trends. We leverage the diffusion process and its reversed form to sample from the posterior distribution and optimized the corresponding score function. We design a joint training and inference framework to optimize and evaluate the proposed Diff-POI. Extensive experiments on four real-world POI recommendation datasets demonstrate the superiority of our Diff-POI over state-of-the-art baseline methods. Further ablation and parameter studies on Diff-POI reveal the functionality and effectiveness of the proposed diffusion-based sampling strategy for addressing the limitations of existing methods.

The autologistic actor attribute model, or ALAAM, is the social influence counterpart of the better-known exponential-family random graph model (ERGM) for social selection. Extensive experience with ERGMs has shown that the problem of near-degeneracy which often occurs with simple models can be overcome by using "geometrically weighted" or "alternating" statistics. In the much more limited empirical applications of ALAAMs to date, the problem of near-degeneracy, although theoretically expected, appears to have been less of an issue. In this work I present a comprehensive survey of ALAAM applications, showing that this model has to date only been used with relatively small networks, in which near-degeneracy does not appear to be a problem. I show near-degeneracy does occur in simple ALAAM models of larger empirical networks, define some geometrically weighted ALAAM statistics analogous to those for ERGM, and demonstrate that models with these statistics do not suffer from near-degeneracy and hence can be estimated where they could not be with the simple statistics.

Directly sending audio signals from a transmitter to a receiver across a noisy channel may absorb consistent bandwidth and be prone to errors when trying to recover the transmitted bits. On the contrary, the recent semantic communication approach proposes to send the semantics and then regenerate semantically consistent content at the receiver without exactly recovering the bitstream. In this paper, we propose a generative audio semantic communication framework that faces the communication problem as an inverse problem, therefore being robust to different corruptions. Our method transmits lower-dimensional representations of the audio signal and of the associated semantics to the receiver, which generates the corresponding signal with a particular focus on its meaning (i.e., the semantics) thanks to the conditional diffusion model at its core. During the generation process, the diffusion model restores the received information from multiple degradations at the same time including corruption noise and missing parts caused by the transmission over the noisy channel. We show that our framework outperforms competitors in a real-world scenario and with different channel conditions. Visit the project page to listen to samples and access the code: //ispamm.github.io/diffusion-audio-semantic-communication/.

We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We will share our code based on the Timm library and pre-trained models.

Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.