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We consider estimators obtained by iterates of the conjugate gradient (CG) algorithm applied to the normal equation of prototypical statistical inverse problems. Stopping the CG algorithm early induces regularisation, and optimal convergence rates of prediction and reconstruction error are established in wide generality for an ideal oracle stopping time. Based on this insight, a fully data-driven early stopping rule $\tau$ is constructed, which also attains optimal rates, provided the error in estimating the noise level is not dominant. The error analysis of CG under statistical noise is subtle due to its nonlinear dependence on the observations. We provide an explicit error decomposition and identify two terms in the prediction error, which share important properties of classical bias and variance terms. Together with a continuous interpolation between CG iterates, this paves the way for a comprehensive error analysis of early stopping. In particular, a general oracle-type inequality is proved for the prediction error at $\tau$. For bounding the reconstruction error, a more refined probabilistic analysis, based on concentration of self-normalised Gaussian processes, is developed. The methodology also provides some new insights into early stopping for CG in deterministic inverse problems. A numerical study for standard examples shows good results in practice for early stopping at $\tau$.

Numerical schemes that conserve invariants have demonstrated superior performance in various contexts, and several unified methods have been developed for constructing such schemes. However, the mathematical properties of these schemes remain poorly understood, except in norm-preserving cases. This study introduces a novel analytical framework applicable to general energy-preserving schemes. The proposed framework is applied to Korteweg-de Vries (KdV)-type equations, establishing global existence and convergence estimates for the numerical solutions.

We investigate the proof complexity of systems based on positive branching programs, i.e. non-deterministic branching programs (NBPs) where, for any 0-transition between two nodes, there is also a 1-transition. Positive NBPs compute monotone Boolean functions, just like negation-free circuits or formulas, but constitute a positive version of (non-uniform) NL, rather than P or NC1, respectively. The proof complexity of NBPs was investigated in previous work by Buss, Das and Knop, using extension variables to represent the dag-structure, over a language of (non-deterministic) decision trees, yielding the system eLNDT. Our system eLNDT+ is obtained by restricting their systems to a positive syntax, similarly to how the 'monotone sequent calculus' MLK is obtained from the usual sequent calculus LK by restricting to negation-free formulas. Our main result is that eLNDT+ polynomially simulates eLNDT over positive sequents. Our proof method is inspired by a similar result for MLK by Atserias, Galesi and Pudl\'ak, that was recently improved to a bona fide polynomial simulation via works of Je\v{r}\'abek and Buss, Kabanets, Kolokolova and Kouck\'y. Along the way we formalise several properties of counting functions within eLNDT+ by polynomial-size proofs and, as a case study, give explicit polynomial-size poofs of the propositional pigeonhole principle.

Gradient boosting for decision tree algorithms are increasingly used in actuarial applications as they show superior predictive performance over traditional generalized linear models. Many improvements and sophistications to the first gradient boosting machine algorithm exist. We present in a unified notation, and contrast, all the existing point and probabilistic gradient boosting for decision tree algorithms: GBM, XGBoost, DART, LightGBM, CatBoost, EGBM, PGBM, XGBoostLSS, cyclic GBM, and NGBoost. In this comprehensive numerical study, we compare their performance on five publicly available datasets for claim frequency and severity, of various size and comprising different number of (high cardinality) categorical variables. We explain how varying exposure-to-risk can be handled with boosting in frequency models. We compare the algorithms on the basis of computational efficiency, predictive performance, and model adequacy. LightGBM and XGBoostLSS win in terms of computational efficiency. The fully interpretable EGBM achieves competitive predictive performance compared to the black box algorithms considered. We find that there is no trade-off between model adequacy and predictive accuracy: both are achievable simultaneously.

This work studies the parameter-dependent diffusion equation in a two-dimensional domain consisting of locally mirror symmetric layers. It is assumed that the diffusion coefficient is a constant in each layer. The goal is to find approximate parameter-to-solution maps that have a small number of terms. It is shown that in the case of two layers one can find a solution formula consisting of three terms with explicit dependencies on the diffusion coefficient. The formula is based on decomposing the solution into orthogonal parts related to both of the layers and the interface between them. This formula is then expanded to an approximate one for the multi-layer case. We give an analytical formula for square layers and use the finite element formulation for more general layers. The results are illustrated with numerical examples and have applications for reduced basis methods by analyzing the Kolmogorov n-width.

Preconditioned eigenvalue solvers offer the possibility to incorporate preconditioners for the solution of large-scale eigenvalue problems, as they arise from the discretization of partial differential equations. The convergence analysis of such methods is intricate. Even for the relatively simple preconditioned inverse iteration (PINVIT), which targets the smallest eigenvalue of a symmetric positive definite matrix, the celebrated analysis by Neymeyr is highly nontrivial and only yields convergence if the starting vector is fairly close to the desired eigenvector. In this work, we prove a new non-asymptotic convergence result for a variant of PINVIT. Our proof proceeds by analyzing an equivalent Riemannian steepest descent method and leveraging convexity-like properties. We show a convergence rate that nearly matches the one of PINVIT. As a major benefit, we require a condition on the starting vector that tends to be less stringent. This improved global convergence property is demonstrated for two classes of preconditioners with theoretical bounds and a range of numerical experiments.

Starting from a basic model in which the dynamic of the transaction prices is a geometric Brownian motion disrupted by a microstructure white noise, corresponding to the random alternation of bids and asks, we propose moment-based estimators along with their statistical properties. We then make the model more realistic by considering serial dependence: we assume a geometric fractional Brownian motion for the price, then an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for the microstructure noise. In these two cases of serial dependence, we propose again consistent and asymptotically normal estimators. All our estimators are compared on simulated data with existing approaches, such as Roll, Corwin-Schultz, Abdi-Ranaldo, or Ardia-Guidotti-Kroencke estimators.

We present a novel class of projected gradient (PG) methods for minimizing a smooth but not necessarily convex function over a convex compact set. We first provide a novel analysis of the "vanilla" PG method, achieving the best-known iteration complexity for finding an approximate stationary point of the problem. We then develop an "auto-conditioned" projected gradient (AC-PG) variant that achieves the same iteration complexity without requiring the input of the Lipschitz constant of the gradient or any line search procedure. The key idea is to estimate the Lipschitz constant using first-order information gathered from the previous iterations, and to show that the error caused by underestimating the Lipschitz constant can be properly controlled. We then generalize the PG methods to the stochastic setting, by proposing a stochastic projected gradient (SPG) method and a variance-reduced stochastic gradient (VR-SPG) method, achieving new complexity bounds in different oracle settings. We also present auto-conditioned stepsize policies for both stochastic PG methods and establish comparable convergence guarantees.

A statistical network model with overlapping communities can be generated as a superposition of mutually independent random graphs of varying size. The model is parameterized by the number of nodes, the number of communities, and the joint distribution of the community size and the edge probability. This model admits sparse parameter regimes with power-law limiting degree distributions and non-vanishing clustering coefficients. This article presents large-scale approximations of clique and cycle frequencies for graph samples generated by the model, which are valid for regimes with unbounded numbers of overlapping communities. Our results reveal the growth rates of these subgraph frequencies and show that their theoretical densities can be reliably estimated from data.

Gradient Descent (GD) and Conjugate Gradient (CG) methods are among the most effective iterative algorithms for solving unconstrained optimization problems, particularly in machine learning and statistical modeling, where they are employed to minimize cost functions. In these algorithms, tunable parameters, such as step sizes or conjugate parameters, play a crucial role in determining key performance metrics, like runtime and solution quality. In this work, we introduce a framework that models algorithm selection as a statistical learning problem, and thus learning complexity can be estimated by the pseudo-dimension of the algorithm group. We first propose a new cost measure for unconstrained optimization algorithms, inspired by the concept of primal-dual integral in mixed-integer linear programming. Based on the new cost measure, we derive an improved upper bound for the pseudo-dimension of gradient descent algorithm group by discretizing the set of step size configurations. Moreover, we generalize our findings from gradient descent algorithm to the conjugate gradient algorithm group for the first time, and prove the existence a learning algorithm capable of probabilistically identifying the optimal algorithm with a sufficiently large sample size.