Accurate estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is at the core of personalized decision making. While there is a plethora of models for CATE estimation, model selection is a nontrivial task, due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Recent empirical work provides evidence in favor of proxy loss metrics with double robust properties and in favor of model ensembling. However, theoretical understanding is lacking. Direct application of prior theoretical work leads to suboptimal oracle model selection rates due to the non-convexity of the model selection problem. We provide regret rates for the major existing CATE ensembling approaches and propose a new CATE model ensembling approach based on Q-aggregation using the doubly robust loss. Our main result shows that causal Q-aggregation achieves statistically optimal oracle model selection regret rates of $\frac{\log(M)}{n}$ (with $M$ models and $n$ samples), with the addition of higher-order estimation error terms related to products of errors in the nuisance functions. Crucially, our regret rate does not require that any of the candidate CATE models be close to the truth. We validate our new method on many semi-synthetic datasets and also provide extensions of our work to CATE model selection with instrumental variables and unobserved confounding.
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Contingency planning, wherein an agent generates a set of possible plans conditioned on the outcome of an uncertain event, is an increasingly popular way for robots to act under uncertainty. In this work we take a game-theoretic perspective on contingency planning, tailored to multi-agent scenarios in which a robot's actions impact the decisions of other agents and vice versa. The resulting contingency game allows the robot to efficiently interact with other agents by generating strategic motion plans conditioned on multiple possible intents for other actors in the scene. Contingency games are parameterized via a scalar variable which represents a future time when intent uncertainty will be resolved. By estimating this parameter online, we construct a game-theoretic motion planner that adapts to changing beliefs while anticipating future certainty. We show that existing variants of game-theoretic planning under uncertainty are readily obtained as special cases of contingency games. Through a series of simulated autonomous driving scenarios, we demonstrate that contingency games close the gap between certainty-equivalent games that commit to a single hypothesis and non-contingent multi-hypothesis games that do not account for future uncertainty reduction.
Efficient derandomization has long been a goal in complexity theory, and a major recent result by Yanyi Liu and Rafael Pass identifies a new class of hardness assumption under which it is possible to perform time-bounded derandomization efficiently: that of ''leakage-resilient hardness.'' They identify a specific form of this assumption which is $\textit{equivalent}$ to $\mathsf{prP} = \mathsf{prBPP}$. In this paper, we pursue a an equivalence to derandomization of $\mathsf{prBP{\cdot}L}$ (logspace promise problems with two-way randomness) through techniques analogous to Liu and Pass. We are able to obtain an equivalence between a similar ''leakage-resilient hardness'' assumption and a slightly stronger statement than derandomization of $\mathsf{prBP{\cdot}L}$, that of finding ''non-no'' instances of ''promise search problems.''
Computerised clinical coding approaches aim to automate the process of assigning a set of codes to medical records. While there is active research pushing the state of the art on clinical coding for hospitalized patients, the outpatient setting -- where doctors tend to non-hospitalised patients -- is overlooked. Although both settings can be formalised as a multi-label classification task, they present unique and distinct challenges, which raises the question of whether the success of inpatient clinical coding approaches translates to the outpatient setting. This paper is the first to investigate how well state-of-the-art deep learning-based clinical coding approaches work in the outpatient setting at hospital scale. To this end, we collect a large outpatient dataset comprising over 7 million notes documenting over half a million patients. We adapt four state-of-the-art clinical coding approaches to this setting and evaluate their potential to assist coders. We find evidence that clinical coding in outpatient settings can benefit from more innovations in popular inpatient coding benchmarks. A deeper analysis of the factors contributing to the success -- amount and form of data and choice of document representation -- reveals the presence of easy-to-solve examples, the coding of which can be completely automated with a low error rate.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the performance of MindOpt Adapter for CPLEX 12.9 in benchmark testing. CPLEX, recognized as a robust Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) solver, has faced some scrutiny regarding its performance on MIPLIB 2017 when configured to default settings. MindOpt Adapter aims to enhance CPLEX's performance by automatically applying improved configurations for solving optimization problems. Our testing demonstrates that MindOpt Adapter for CPLEX yields successfully solved 230 of the 240 problems in the MIPLIB 2017 benchmark set. This performance surpasses all the other solvers in terms of the number of problems solved and the geometric mean of running times. The report provides a comparison of the benchmark results against the outcomes achieved by CPLEX under its default configuration.
The human ability to easily solve multimodal tasks in context (i.e., with only a few demonstrations or simple instructions), is what current multimodal systems have largely struggled to imitate. In this work, we demonstrate that the task-agnostic in-context learning capabilities of large multimodal models can be significantly enhanced by effective scaling-up. We introduce Emu2, a generative multimodal model with 37 billion parameters, trained on large-scale multimodal sequences with a unified autoregressive objective. Emu2 exhibits strong multimodal in-context learning abilities, even emerging to solve tasks that require on-the-fly reasoning, such as visual prompting and object-grounded generation. The model sets a new record on multiple multimodal understanding tasks in few-shot settings. When instruction-tuned to follow specific instructions, Emu2 further achieves new state-of-the-art on challenging tasks such as question answering benchmarks for large multimodal models and open-ended subject-driven generation. These achievements demonstrate that Emu2 can serve as a base model and general-purpose interface for a wide range of multimodal tasks. Code and models are publicly available to facilitate future research.
There has been a great deal of recent interest in binarized neural networks, especially because of their explainability. At the same time, automatic differentiation algorithms such as backpropagation fail for binarized neural networks, which limits their applicability. By reformulating the problem of training binarized neural networks as a subadditive dual of a mixed-integer program, we show that binarized neural networks admit a tame representation. This, in turn, makes it possible to use the framework of Bolte et al. for implicit differentiation, which offers the possibility for practical implementation of backpropagation in the context of binarized neural networks. This approach could also be used for a broader class of mixed-integer programs, beyond the training of binarized neural networks, as encountered in symbolic approaches to AI and beyond.
Few-shot Knowledge Graph (KG) completion is a focus of current research, where each task aims at querying unseen facts of a relation given its few-shot reference entity pairs. Recent attempts solve this problem by learning static representations of entities and references, ignoring their dynamic properties, i.e., entities may exhibit diverse roles within task relations, and references may make different contributions to queries. This work proposes an adaptive attentional network for few-shot KG completion by learning adaptive entity and reference representations. Specifically, entities are modeled by an adaptive neighbor encoder to discern their task-oriented roles, while references are modeled by an adaptive query-aware aggregator to differentiate their contributions. Through the attention mechanism, both entities and references can capture their fine-grained semantic meanings, and thus render more expressive representations. This will be more predictive for knowledge acquisition in the few-shot scenario. Evaluation in link prediction on two public datasets shows that our approach achieves new state-of-the-art results with different few-shot sizes.
Knowledge graph embedding, which aims to represent entities and relations as low dimensional vectors (or matrices, tensors, etc.), has been shown to be a powerful technique for predicting missing links in knowledge graphs. Existing knowledge graph embedding models mainly focus on modeling relation patterns such as symmetry/antisymmetry, inversion, and composition. However, many existing approaches fail to model semantic hierarchies, which are common in real-world applications. To address this challenge, we propose a novel knowledge graph embedding model---namely, Hierarchy-Aware Knowledge Graph Embedding (HAKE)---which maps entities into the polar coordinate system. HAKE is inspired by the fact that concentric circles in the polar coordinate system can naturally reflect the hierarchy. Specifically, the radial coordinate aims to model entities at different levels of the hierarchy, and entities with smaller radii are expected to be at higher levels; the angular coordinate aims to distinguish entities at the same level of the hierarchy, and these entities are expected to have roughly the same radii but different angles. Experiments demonstrate that HAKE can effectively model the semantic hierarchies in knowledge graphs, and significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets for the link prediction task.
The potential of graph convolutional neural networks for the task of zero-shot learning has been demonstrated recently. These models are highly sample efficient as related concepts in the graph structure share statistical strength allowing generalization to new classes when faced with a lack of data. However, knowledge from distant nodes can get diluted when propagating through intermediate nodes, because current approaches to zero-shot learning use graph propagation schemes that perform Laplacian smoothing at each layer. We show that extensive smoothing does not help the task of regressing classifier weights in zero-shot learning. In order to still incorporate information from distant nodes and utilize the graph structure, we propose an Attentive Dense Graph Propagation Module (ADGPM). ADGPM allows us to exploit the hierarchical graph structure of the knowledge graph through additional connections. These connections are added based on a node's relationship to its ancestors and descendants and an attention scheme is further used to weigh their contribution depending on the distance to the node. Finally, we illustrate that finetuning of the feature representation after training the ADGPM leads to considerable improvements. Our method achieves competitive results, outperforming previous zero-shot learning approaches.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
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