One of the goals of causal inference is to generalize from past experiments and observational data to novel conditions. While it is in principle possible to eventually learn a mapping from a novel experimental condition to an outcome of interest, provided a sufficient variety of experiments is available in the training data, coping with a large combinatorial space of possible interventions is hard. Under a typical sparse experimental design, this mapping is ill-posed without relying on heavy regularization or prior distributions. Such assumptions may or may not be reliable, and can be hard to defend or test. In this paper, we take a close look at how to warrant a leap from past experiments to novel conditions based on minimal assumptions about the factorization of the distribution of the manipulated system, communicated in the well-understood language of factor graph models. A postulated $\textit{interventional factor model}$ (IFM) may not always be informative, but it conveniently abstracts away a need for explicitly modeling unmeasured confounding and feedback mechanisms, leading to directly testable claims. Given an IFM and datasets from a collection of experimental regimes, we derive conditions for identifiability of the expected outcomes of new regimes never observed in these training data. We implement our framework using several efficient algorithms, and apply them on a range of semi-synthetic experiments.
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Modern generative models exhibit unprecedented capabilities to generate extremely realistic data. However, given the inherent compositionality of the real world, reliable use of these models in practical applications requires that they exhibit the capability to compose a novel set of concepts to generate outputs not seen in the training data set. Prior work demonstrates that recent diffusion models do exhibit intriguing compositional generalization abilities, but also fail unpredictably. Motivated by this, we perform a controlled study for understanding compositional generalization in conditional diffusion models in a synthetic setting, varying different attributes of the training data and measuring the model's ability to generate samples out-of-distribution. Our results show: (i) the order in which the ability to generate samples from a concept and compose them emerges is governed by the structure of the underlying data-generating process; (ii) performance on compositional tasks exhibits a sudden "emergence" due to multiplicative reliance on the performance of constituent tasks, partially explaining emergent phenomena seen in generative models; and (iii) composing concepts with lower frequency in the training data to generate out-of-distribution samples requires considerably more optimization steps compared to generating in-distribution samples. Overall, our study lays a foundation for understanding capabilities and compositionality in generative models from a data-centric perspective.
Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed under a variety of assumptions, often -- for instance, in standard conformal prediction -- relying on the invariance of the distribution of the data under special groups of transformations such as permutation groups. Moreover, many existing methods for predictive inference aim to predict unobserved outcomes in sequences of feature-outcome observations. Meanwhile, there is interest in predictive inference under more general observation models (e.g., for partially observed features) and for data satisfying more general distributional symmetries (e.g., rotationally invariant or coordinate-independent observations in physics). Here we propose SymmPI, a methodology for predictive inference when data distributions have general group symmetries in arbitrary observation models. Our methods leverage the novel notion of distributional equivariant transformations, which process the data while preserving their distributional invariances. We show that SymmPI has valid coverage under distributional invariance and characterize its performance under distribution shift, recovering recent results as special cases. We apply SymmPI to predict unobserved values associated to vertices in a network, where the distribution is unchanged under relabelings that keep the network structure unchanged. In several simulations in a two-layer hierarchical model, and in an empirical data analysis example, SymmPI performs favorably compared to existing methods.
We introduce a novel Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm aimed at addressing the challenge of maintaining a uniform proton beam intensity delivery in the Muon to Electron Conversion Experiment (Mu2e) at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab). Our primary objective is to regulate the spill process to ensure a consistent intensity profile, with the ultimate goal of creating an automated controller capable of providing real-time feedback and calibration of the Spill Regulation System (SRS) parameters on a millisecond timescale. We treat the Mu2e accelerator system as a Markov Decision Process suitable for Reinforcement Learning (RL), utilizing PPO to reduce bias and enhance training stability. A key innovation in our approach is the integration of a neuralized Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller into the policy function, resulting in a significant improvement in the Spill Duty Factor (SDF) by 13.6%, surpassing the performance of the current PID controller baseline by an additional 1.6%. This paper presents the preliminary offline results based on a differentiable simulator of the Mu2e accelerator. It paves the groundwork for real-time implementations and applications, representing a crucial step towards automated proton beam intensity control for the Mu2e experiment.
Think Before You Duel: Understanding Complexities of Preference Learning under Constrained Resources
We consider the problem of reward maximization in the dueling bandit setup along with constraints on resource consumption. As in the classic dueling bandits, at each round the learner has to choose a pair of items from a set of $K$ items and observe a relative feedback for the current pair. Additionally, for both items, the learner also observes a vector of resource consumptions. The objective of the learner is to maximize the cumulative reward, while ensuring that the total consumption of any resource is within the allocated budget. We show that due to the relative nature of the feedback, the problem is more difficult than its bandit counterpart and that without further assumptions the problem is not learnable from a regret minimization perspective. Thereafter, by exploiting assumptions on the available budget, we provide an EXP3 based dueling algorithm that also considers the associated consumptions and show that it achieves an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left({\frac{OPT^{(b)}}{B}}K^{1/3}T^{2/3}\right)$ regret, where $OPT^{(b)}$ is the optimal value and $B$ is the available budget. Finally, we provide numerical simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method.
Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise. In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation data has enabled data-driven forecasting models using deep learning techniques. These models have shown promise for diverse Earth system forecasting tasks but either struggle with handling uncertainty or neglect domain-specific prior knowledge, resulting in averaging possible futures to blurred forecasts or generating physically implausible predictions. To address these limitations, we propose a two-stage pipeline for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting: 1) We develop PreDiff, a conditional latent diffusion model capable of probabilistic forecasts. 2) We incorporate an explicit knowledge alignment mechanism to align forecasts with domain-specific physical constraints. This is achieved by estimating the deviation from imposed constraints at each denoising step and adjusting the transition distribution accordingly. We conduct empirical studies on two datasets: N-body MNIST, a synthetic dataset with chaotic behavior, and SEVIR, a real-world precipitation nowcasting dataset. Specifically, we impose the law of conservation of energy in N-body MNIST and anticipated precipitation intensity in SEVIR. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of PreDiff in handling uncertainty, incorporating domain-specific prior knowledge, and generating forecasts that exhibit high operational utility.
A key goal of current mechanistic interpretability research in NLP is to find linear features (also called "feature vectors") for transformers: directions in activation space corresponding to concepts that are used by a given model in its computation. Present state-of-the-art methods for finding linear features require large amounts of labelled data -- both laborious to acquire and computationally expensive to utilize. In this work, we introduce a novel method, called "observable propagation" (in short: ObsProp), for finding linear features used by transformer language models in computing a given task -- using almost no data. Our paradigm centers on the concept of observables, linear functionals corresponding to given tasks. We then introduce a mathematical theory for the analysis of feature vectors: we provide theoretical motivation for why LayerNorm nonlinearities do not affect the direction of feature vectors; we also introduce a similarity metric between feature vectors called the coupling coefficient which estimates the degree to which one feature's output correlates with another's. We use ObsProp to perform extensive qualitative investigations into several tasks, including gendered occupational bias, political party prediction, and programming language detection. Our results suggest that ObsProp surpasses traditional approaches for finding feature vectors in the low-data regime, and that ObsProp can be used to better understand the mechanisms responsible for bias in large language models. Code for experiments can be found at github.com/jacobdunefsky/ObservablePropagation.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
Domain generalization (DG), i.e., out-of-distribution generalization, has attracted increased interests in recent years. Domain generalization deals with a challenging setting where one or several different but related domain(s) are given, and the goal is to learn a model that can generalize to an unseen test domain. For years, great progress has been achieved. This paper presents the first review for recent advances in domain generalization. First, we provide a formal definition of domain generalization and discuss several related fields. Next, we thoroughly review the theories related to domain generalization and carefully analyze the theory behind generalization. Then, we categorize recent algorithms into three classes and present them in detail: data manipulation, representation learning, and learning strategy, each of which contains several popular algorithms. Third, we introduce the commonly used datasets and applications. Finally, we summarize existing literature and present some potential research topics for the future.
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