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Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty. Gibbs posteriors provide a principled framework for likelihood-free Bayesian inference, but in many situations, including a single tuning parameter inevitably leads to poor uncertainty quantification. In particular, regardless of the value of the parameter, credible regions have far from the nominal frequentist coverage even in large samples. We propose a sequential extension to Gibbs posteriors to address this problem. We prove the proposed sequential posterior exhibits concentration and a Bernstein-von Mises theorem, which holds under easy to verify conditions in Euclidean space and on manifolds. As a byproduct, we obtain the first Bernstein-von Mises theorem for traditional likelihood-based Bayesian posteriors on manifolds. All methods are illustrated with an application to principal component analysis.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard errors has proved very useful in cross section environments. However, several major difficulties, which are generally overlooked, must be confronted when transferring the HAC estimation technology to time series environments. First, in plausible time-series environments involving failure of strong exogeneity, OLS parameter estimates can be inconsistent, so that HAC inference fails even asymptotically. Second, most economic time series have strong autocorrelation, which renders HAC regression parameter estimates highly inefficient. Third, strong autocorrelation similarly renders HAC conditional predictions highly inefficient. Finally, The structure of popular HAC estimators is ill-suited for capturing the autoregressive autocorrelation typically present in economic time series, which produces large size distortions and reduced power in HACbased hypothesis testing, in all but the largest samples. We show that all four problems are largely avoided by the use of a simple dynamic regression procedure, which is easily implemented. We demonstrate the advantages of dynamic regression with detailed simulations covering a range of practical issues.

Policy gradient methods have recently been shown to enjoy global convergence at a $\Theta(1/t)$ rate in the non-regularized tabular softmax setting. Accordingly, one important research question is whether this convergence rate can be further improved, with only first-order updates. In this paper, we answer the above question from the perspective of momentum by adapting the celebrated Nesterov's accelerated gradient (NAG) method to reinforcement learning (RL), termed \textit{Accelerated Policy Gradient} (APG). To demonstrate the potential of APG in achieving faster global convergence, we formally show that with the true gradient, APG with softmax policy parametrization converges to an optimal policy at a $\tilde{O}(1/t^2)$ rate. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first characterization of the global convergence rate of NAG in the context of RL. Notably, our analysis relies on one interesting finding: Regardless of the initialization, APG could end up reaching a locally nearly-concave regime, where APG could benefit significantly from the momentum, within finite iterations. By means of numerical validation, we confirm that APG exhibits $\tilde{O}(1/t^2)$ rate as well as show that APG could significantly improve the convergence behavior over the standard policy gradient.

In this paper we show derivations among logarithmic space bounded counting classes based on closure properties of $#L$ that leads us to the result that $NL=PL=C_=L$.

Natural gradient methods have been used to optimise the parameters of probability distributions in a variety of settings, often resulting in fast-converging procedures. Unfortunately, for many distributions of interest, computing the natural gradient has a number of challenges. In this work we propose a novel technique for tackling such issues, which involves reframing the optimisation as one with respect to the parameters of a surrogate distribution, for which computing the natural gradient is easy. We give several examples of existing methods that can be interpreted as applying this technique, and propose a new method for applying it to a wide variety of problems. Our method expands the set of distributions that can be efficiently targeted with natural gradients. Furthermore, it is fast, easy to understand, simple to implement using standard autodiff software, and does not require lengthy model-specific derivations. We demonstrate our method on maximum likelihood estimation and variational inference tasks.

We propose InstructDET, a data-centric method for referring object detection (ROD) that localizes target objects based on user instructions. While deriving from referring expressions (REC), the instructions we leverage are greatly diversified to encompass common user intentions related to object detection. For one image, we produce tremendous instructions that refer to every single object and different combinations of multiple objects. Each instruction and its corresponding object bounding boxes (bbxs) constitute one training data pair. In order to encompass common detection expressions, we involve emerging vision-language model (VLM) and large language model (LLM) to generate instructions guided by text prompts and object bbxs, as the generalizations of foundation models are effective to produce human-like expressions (e.g., describing object property, category, and relationship). We name our constructed dataset as InDET. It contains images, bbxs and generalized instructions that are from foundation models. Our InDET is developed from existing REC datasets and object detection datasets, with the expanding potential that any image with object bbxs can be incorporated through using our InstructDET method. By using our InDET dataset, we show that a conventional ROD model surpasses existing methods on standard REC datasets and our InDET test set. Our data-centric method InstructDET, with automatic data expansion by leveraging foundation models, directs a promising field that ROD can be greatly diversified to execute common object detection instructions.

Deep Learning (DL) is vulnerable to out-of-distribution and adversarial examples resulting in incorrect outputs. To make DL more robust, several posthoc anomaly detection techniques to detect (and discard) these anomalous samples have been proposed in the recent past. This survey tries to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on anomaly detection for DL based applications. We provide a taxonomy for existing techniques based on their underlying assumptions and adopted approaches. We discuss various techniques in each of the categories and provide the relative strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. Our goal in this survey is to provide an easier yet better understanding of the techniques belonging to different categories in which research has been done on this topic. Finally, we highlight the unsolved research challenges while applying anomaly detection techniques in DL systems and present some high-impact future research directions.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.