The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropogenic global warming. The complex cross-scale interactions of processes that produce precipitation are challenging to model, however, inducing potentially strong biases in ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State-of-the-art bias correction methods only address errors in the simulated frequency distributions locally at every individual grid cell. Improving unrealistic spatial patterns of the ESM output, which would require spatial context, has not been possible so far. Here, we show that a post-processing method based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (cGANs) can correct biases of a state-of-the-art, CMIP6-class ESM both in local frequency distributions and in the spatial patterns at once. While our method improves local frequency distributions equally well as gold-standard bias-adjustment frameworks, it strongly outperforms any existing methods in the correction of spatial patterns, especially in terms of the characteristic spatial intermittency of precipitation extremes.
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Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) is a group of cardiac malformations present already during fetal life, representing the prevailing category of birth defects globally. Our aim in this study is to aid 3D fetal vessel topology visualisation in aortic arch anomalies, a group which encompasses a range of conditions with significant anatomical heterogeneity. We present a multi-task framework for automated multi-class fetal vessel segmentation from 3D black blood T2w MRI and anomaly classification. Our training data consists of binary manual segmentation masks of the cardiac vessels' region in individual subjects and fully-labelled anomaly-specific population atlases. Our framework combines deep learning label propagation using VoxelMorph with 3D Attention U-Net segmentation and DenseNet121 anomaly classification. We target 11 cardiac vessels and three distinct aortic arch anomalies, including double aortic arch, right aortic arch, and suspected coarctation of the aorta. We incorporate an anomaly classifier into our segmentation pipeline, delivering a multi-task framework with the primary motivation of correcting topological inaccuracies of the segmentation. The hypothesis is that the multi-task approach will encourage the segmenter network to learn anomaly-specific features. As a secondary motivation, an automated diagnosis tool may have the potential to enhance diagnostic confidence in a decision support setting. Our results showcase that our proposed training strategy significantly outperforms label propagation and a network trained exclusively on propagated labels. Our classifier outperforms a classifier trained exclusively on T2w volume images, with an average balanced accuracy of 0.99 (0.01) after joint training. Adding a classifier improves the anatomical and topological accuracy of all correctly classified double aortic arch subjects.
We consider the general problem of Bayesian binary regression and we introduce a new class of distributions, the Perturbed Unified Skew Normal (pSUN, henceforth), which generalizes the Unified Skew-Normal (SUN) class. We show that the new class is conjugate to any binary regression model, provided that the link function may be expressed as a scale mixture of Gaussian densities. We discuss in detail the popular logit case, and we show that, when a logistic regression model is combined with a Gaussian prior, posterior summaries such as cumulants and normalizing constants can be easily obtained through the use of an importance sampling approach, opening the way to straightforward variable selection procedures. For more general priors, the proposed methodology is based on a simple Gibbs sampler algorithm. We also claim that, in the p > n case, the proposed methodology shows better performances - both in terms of mixing and accuracy - compared to the existing methods. We illustrate the performance through several simulation studies and two data analyses.
Generalized linear models (GLMs) are routinely used for modeling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a GLM comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model misspecification impacting inferential conclusions. A popular semi-parametric solution adopted in the frequentist literature is quasi-likelihood, which improves robustness by only requiring correct specification of the first two moments. We develop a robust approach to Bayesian inference in GLMs through quasi-posterior distributions. We show that quasi-posteriors provide a coherent generalized Bayes inference method, while also approximating so-called coarsened posteriors. In so doing, we obtain new insights into the choice of coarsening parameter. Asymptotically, the quasi-posterior converges in total variation to a normal distribution and has important connections with the loss-likelihood bootstrap posterior. We demonstrate that it is also well-calibrated in terms of frequentist coverage. Moreover, the loss-scale parameter has a clear interpretation as a dispersion, and this leads to a consolidated method of moments estimator.
Uncontrolled hypertension is a global problem that needs to be addressed. Despite the many mHealth solutions in the market, the nonadherence relative to intended use jeopardizes treatment success. Although investigating user experience is one of the most important mechanisms for understanding mHealth discontinuance, surprisingly, the core determinants of overall user experience (i.e., positive and negative) about mHealth apps for hypertension are unknown. To address the mentioned gap in knowledge, this study adopts the computational grounded theory methodological framework and employs advanced deep learning algorithms to predict core quality criteria that affect overall user experience of hypertension apps published in the Apple App Store. This study contributes to theory and practice of designing evidence-based interventions for hypertension in the form of propositions and provide valuable managerial implications and recommendations for manufacturers.
Model-based optimization (MBO) is increasingly applied to design problems in science and engineering. A common scenario involves using a fixed training set to train models, with the goal of designing new samples that outperform those present in the training data. A major challenge in this setting is distribution shift, where the distributions of training and design samples are different. While some shift is expected, as the goal is to create better designs, this change can negatively affect model accuracy and subsequently, design quality. Despite the widespread nature of this problem, addressing it demands deep domain knowledge and artful application. To tackle this issue, we propose a straightforward method for design practitioners that detects distribution shifts. This method trains a binary classifier using knowledge of the unlabeled design distribution to separate the training data from the design data. The classifier's logit scores are then used as a proxy measure of distribution shift. We validate our method in a real-world application by running offline MBO and evaluate the effect of distribution shift on design quality. We find that the intensity of the shift in the design distribution varies based on the number of steps taken by the optimization algorithm, and our simple approach can identify these shifts. This enables users to constrain their search to regions where the model's predictions are reliable, thereby increasing the quality of designs.
Throughout the life sciences we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations using parameterised mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked choice in this approach involves relating the solution of a mathematical model with noisy and incomplete measurement data. This is often achieved by assuming that the data are noisy measurements of the solution of a deterministic mathematical model, and that measurement errors are additive and normally distributed. While this assumption of additive Gaussian noise is extremely common and simple to implement and interpret, it is often unjustified and can lead to poor parameter estimates and non-physical predictions. One way to overcome this challenge is to implement a different measurement error model. In this review, we demonstrate how to implement a range of measurement error models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis, and prediction, called Profile-Wise Analysis. This frequentist approach to uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models leverages the profile likelihood for targeting parameters and understanding their influence on predictions. Case studies, motivated by simple caricature models routinely used in systems biology and mathematical biology literature, illustrate how the same ideas apply to different types of mathematical models. Open-source Julia code to reproduce results is available on GitHub.
Data standardization has become one of the leading methods neuroimaging researchers rely on for data sharing and reproducibility. Data standardization promotes a common framework through which researchers can utilize others' data. Yet, as of today, formatting datasets that adhere to community best practices requires technical expertise involving coding and considerable knowledge of file formats and standards. We describe ezBIDS, a tool for converting neuroimaging data and associated metadata to the Brain Imaging Data Structure (BIDS) standard. ezBIDS provides four unique features: (1) No installation or programming requirements. (2) Handling of both imaging and task events data and metadata. (3) Automated inference and guidance for adherence to BIDS. (4) Multiple data management options: download BIDS data to local system, or transfer to OpenNeuro.org or brainlife.io. In sum, ezBIDS requires neither coding proficiency nor knowledge of BIDS and is the first BIDS tool to offer guided standardization, support for task events conversion, and interoperability with OpenNeuro and brainlife.io.
We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We will share our code based on the Timm library and pre-trained models.
Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
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