Dynamical behaviors of complex interacting systems, including brain activities, financial price movements, and physical collective phenomena, are associated with underlying interactions between the system's components. The issue of uncovering interaction relations in such systems using observable dynamics is called relational inference. In this study, we propose a Diffusion model for Relational Inference (DiffRI), inspired by a self-supervised method for probabilistic time series imputation. DiffRI learns to infer the probability of the presence of connections between components through conditional diffusion modeling. Experiments on both simulated and quasi-real datasets show that DiffRI is highly competent compared with other state-of-the-art models in discovering ground truth interactions in an unsupervised manner. Our code will be made public soon.
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We consider a statistical model for symmetric matrix factorization with additive Gaussian noise in the high-dimensional regime where the rank $M$ of the signal matrix to infer scales with its size $N$ as $M = o(N^{1/10})$. Allowing for a $N$-dependent rank offers new challenges and requires new methods. Working in the Bayesian-optimal setting, we show that whenever the signal has i.i.d. entries the limiting mutual information between signal and data is given by a variational formula involving a rank-one replica symmetric potential. In other words, from the information-theoretic perspective, the case of a (slowly) growing rank is the same as when $M = 1$ (namely, the standard spiked Wigner model). The proof is primarily based on a novel multiscale cavity method allowing for growing rank along with some information-theoretic identities on worst noise for the Gaussian vector channel. We believe that the cavity method developed here will play a role in the analysis of a broader class of inference and spin models where the degrees of freedom are large arrays instead of vectors.
For factor analysis, many estimators, starting with the maximum likelihood estimator, are developed, and the statistical properties of most estimators are well discussed. In the early 2000s, a new estimator based on matrix factorization, called Matrix Decomposition Factor Analysis (MDFA), was developed. Although the estimator is obtained by minimizing the principal component analysis-like loss function, this estimator empirically behaves like other consistent estimators of factor analysis, not principal component analysis. Since the MDFA estimator cannot be formulated as a classical M-estimator, the statistical properties of the MDFA estimator have not yet been discussed. To explain this unexpected behavior theoretically, we establish the consistency of the MDFA estimator as the factor analysis. That is, we show that the MDFA estimator has the same limit as other consistent estimators of factor analysis.
In decision-making, maxitive functions are used for worst-case and best-case evaluations. Maxitivity gives rise to a rich structure that is well-studied in the context of the pointwise order. In this article, we investigate maxitivity with respect to general preorders and provide a representation theorem for such functionals. The results are illustrated for different stochastic orders in the literature, including the usual stochastic order, the increasing convex/concave order, and the dispersive order.
The purpose of anonymizing structured data is to protect the privacy of individuals in the data while retaining the statistical properties of the data. There is a large body of work that examines anonymization vulnerabilities. Focusing on strong anonymization mechanisms, this paper examines a number of prominent attack papers and finds several problems, all of which lead to overstating risk. First, some papers fail to establish a correct statistical inference baseline (or any at all), leading to incorrect measures. Notably, the reconstruction attack from the US Census Bureau that led to a redesign of its disclosure method made this mistake. We propose the non-member framework, an improved method for how to compute a more accurate inference baseline, and give examples of its operation. Second, some papers don't use a realistic membership base rate, leading to incorrect precision measures if precision is reported. Third, some papers unnecessarily report measures in such a way that it is difficult or impossible to assess risk. Virtually the entire literature on membership inference attacks, dozens of papers, make one or both of these errors. We propose that membership inference papers report precision/recall values using a representative range of base rates.
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a simple and popular tool for processing high-dimensional data. We investigate its effectiveness for matrix denoising. We consider the clean data are generated from a low-dimensional subspace, but masked by independent high-dimensional sub-Gaussian noises with standard deviation $\sigma$. Under the low-rank assumption on the clean data with a mild spectral gap assumption, we prove that the distance between each pair of PCA-denoised data point and the clean data point is uniformly bounded by $O(\sigma \log n)$. To illustrate the spectral gap assumption, we show it can be satisfied when the clean data are independently generated with a non-degenerate covariance matrix. We then provide a general lower bound for the error of the denoised data matrix, which indicates PCA denoising gives a uniform error bound that is rate-optimal. Furthermore, we examine how the error bound impacts downstream applications such as clustering and manifold learning. Numerical results validate our theoretical findings and reveal the importance of the uniform error.
The worst-case complexity of group-theoretic algorithms has been studied for a long time. Generic-case complexity, or complexity on random inputs, was introduced and studied relatively recently. In this paper, we address the average-case time complexity of the word problem in several classes of groups and show that it is often the case that the average-case complexity is linear with respect to the length of an input word. The classes of groups that we consider include groups of matrices over rationals (in particular, polycyclic groups), some classes of solvable groups, as well as free products. Along the way, we improve several bounds for the worst-case complexity of the word problem in groups of matrices, in particular in nilpotent groups. For free products, we also address the average-case complexity of the subgroup membership problem and show that it is often linear, too. Finally, we discuss complexity of the identity problem that has not been considered before.
We consider Gibbs distributions, which are families of probability distributions over a discrete space $\Omega$ with probability mass function of the form $\mu^\Omega_\beta(\omega) \propto e^{\beta H(\omega)}$ for $\beta$ in an interval $[\beta_{\min}, \beta_{\max}]$ and $H( \omega ) \in \{0 \} \cup [1, n]$. The partition function is the normalization factor $Z(\beta)=\sum_{\omega \in\Omega}e^{\beta H(\omega)}$. Two important parameters of these distributions are the log partition ratio $q = \log \tfrac{Z(\beta_{\max})}{Z(\beta_{\min})}$ and the counts $c_x = |H^{-1}(x)|$. These are correlated with system parameters in a number of physical applications and sampling algorithms. Our first main result is to estimate the counts $c_x$ using roughly $\tilde O( \frac{q}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $\tilde O( \frac{n^2}{\varepsilon^2} )$ samples for integer-valued distributions (ignoring some second-order terms and parameters), and we show this is optimal up to logarithmic factors. We illustrate with improved algorithms for counting connected subgraphs, independent sets, and perfect matchings. As a key subroutine, we also develop algorithms to compute the partition function $Z$ using $\tilde O(\frac{q}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and using $\tilde O(\frac{n^2}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for integer-valued distributions.
The presented methodology for testing the goodness-of-fit of an Autoregressive Hilbertian model (ARH(1) model) provides an infinite-dimensional formulation of the approach proposed in Koul and Stute (1999), based on empirical process marked by residuals. Applying a central and functional central limit result for Hilbert-valued martingale difference sequences, the asymptotic behavior of the formulated H-valued empirical process, also indexed by H, is obtained under the null hypothesis. The limiting process is H-valued generalized (i.e., indexed by H) Wiener process, leading to an asymptotically distribution free test. Consistency of the test is also proved. The case of misspecified autocorrelation operator of the ARH(1) process is addressed. The asymptotic equivalence in probability, uniformly in the norm of H, of the empirical processes formulated under known and unknown autocorrelation operator is obtained. Beyond the Euclidean setting, this approach allows to implement goodness of fit testing in the context of manifold and spherical functional autoregressive processes.
Sparse regression and classification estimators that respect group structures have application to an assortment of statistical and machine learning problems, from multitask learning to sparse additive modeling to hierarchical selection. This work introduces structured sparse estimators that combine group subset selection with shrinkage. To accommodate sophisticated structures, our estimators allow for arbitrary overlap between groups. We develop an optimization framework for fitting the nonconvex regularization surface and present finite-sample error bounds for estimation of the regression function. As an application requiring structure, we study sparse semiparametric additive modeling, a procedure that allows the effect of each predictor to be zero, linear, or nonlinear. For this task, the new estimators improve across several metrics on synthetic data compared to alternatives. Finally, we demonstrate their efficacy in modeling supermarket foot traffic and economic recessions using many predictors. These demonstrations suggest sparse semiparametric additive models, fit using the new estimators, are an excellent compromise between fully linear and fully nonparametric alternatives. All of our algorithms are made available in the scalable implementation grpsel.
Deep learning is usually described as an experiment-driven field under continuous criticizes of lacking theoretical foundations. This problem has been partially fixed by a large volume of literature which has so far not been well organized. This paper reviews and organizes the recent advances in deep learning theory. The literature is categorized in six groups: (1) complexity and capacity-based approaches for analyzing the generalizability of deep learning; (2) stochastic differential equations and their dynamic systems for modelling stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which characterize the optimization and generalization of deep learning, partially inspired by Bayesian inference; (3) the geometrical structures of the loss landscape that drives the trajectories of the dynamic systems; (4) the roles of over-parameterization of deep neural networks from both positive and negative perspectives; (5) theoretical foundations of several special structures in network architectures; and (6) the increasingly intensive concerns in ethics and security and their relationships with generalizability.
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