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Prototype-based interpretability methods provide intuitive explanations of model prediction by comparing samples to a reference set of memorized exemplars or typical representatives in terms of similarity. In the field of sequential data modeling, similarity calculations of prototypes are usually based on encoded representation vectors. However, due to highly recursive functions, there is usually a non-negligible disparity between the prototype-based explanations and the original input. In this work, we propose a Self-Explaining Selective Model (SESM) that uses a linear combination of prototypical concepts to explain its own predictions. The model employs the idea of case-based reasoning by selecting sub-sequences of the input that mostly activate different concepts as prototypical parts, which users can compare to sub-sequences selected from different example inputs to understand model decisions. For better interpretability, we design multiple constraints including diversity, stability, and locality as training objectives. Extensive experiments in different domains demonstrate that our method exhibits promising interpretability and competitive accuracy.

The bivariate Gaussian distribution has been a key model for many developments in statistics. However, many real-world phenomena generate data that follow asymmetric distributions, and consequently bivariate normal model is inappropriate in such situations. Bidimensional log-symmetric models have attractive properties and can be considered as good alternatives in these cases. In this paper, we discuss bivariate log-symmetric distributions and their characterizations. We establish several distributional properties and obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed for examining the performance of the developed parameter estimation method. A real data set is finally analyzed to illustrate the proposed model and the associated inferential method.

Data heterogeneity across clients in federated learning (FL) settings is a widely acknowledged challenge. In response, personalized federated learning (PFL) emerged as a framework to curate local models for clients' tasks. In PFL, a common strategy is to develop local and global models jointly - the global model (for generalization) informs the local models, and the local models (for personalization) are aggregated to update the global model. A key observation is that if we can improve the generalization ability of local models, then we can improve the generalization of global models, which in turn builds better personalized models. In this work, we consider class imbalance, an overlooked type of data heterogeneity, in the classification setting. We propose FedNH, a novel method that improves the local models' performance for both personalization and generalization by combining the uniformity and semantics of class prototypes. FedNH initially distributes class prototypes uniformly in the latent space and smoothly infuses the class semantics into class prototypes. We show that imposing uniformity helps to combat prototype collapse while infusing class semantics improves local models. Extensive experiments were conducted on popular classification datasets under the cross-device setting. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness and stability of our method over recent works.

In deep learning, neural networks serve as noisy channels between input data and its representation. This perspective naturally relates deep learning with the pursuit of constructing channels with optimal performance in information transmission and representation. While considerable efforts are concentrated on realizing optimal channel properties during network optimization, we study a frequently overlooked possibility that neural networks can be initialized toward optimal channels. Our theory, consistent with experimental validation, identifies primary mechanics underlying this unknown possibility and suggests intrinsic connections between statistical physics and deep learning. Unlike the conventional theories that characterize neural networks applying the classic mean-filed approximation, we offer analytic proof that this extensively applied simplification scheme is not valid in studying neural networks as information channels. To fill this gap, we develop a corrected mean-field framework applicable for characterizing the limiting behaviors of information propagation in neural networks without strong assumptions on inputs. Based on it, we propose an analytic theory to prove that mutual information maximization is realized between inputs and propagated signals when neural networks are initialized at dynamic isometry, a case where information transmits via norm-preserving mappings. These theoretical predictions are validated by experiments on real neural networks, suggesting the robustness of our theory against finite-size effects. Finally, we analyze our findings with information bottleneck theory to confirm the precise relations among dynamic isometry, mutual information maximization, and optimal channel properties in deep learning.

Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that accurately reflects the underlying data generating process. However, such models are seldom available in practice and one usually wishes to infer them from observational data alone. Unfortunately, the correct structural equation model is in general not identifiable from the observed factual distribution. Nevertheless, in this work, we show that under the assumption that the main latent contributors to the treatment responses are categorical, the counterfactuals can be still reliably predicted. Building upon this assumption, we introduce CounterFactual Query Prediction (CFQP), a novel method to infer counterfactuals from continuous observations when the background variables are categorical. We show that our method significantly outperforms previously available deep-learning-based counterfactual methods, both theoretically and empirically on time series and image data. Our code is available at //github.com/edebrouwer/cfqp.

Mainstream methods for clinical trial design do not yet use prior probabilities of clinical hypotheses, mainly due to a concern that poor priors may lead to weak designs. To address this concern, we illustrate a conservative approach to trial design ensuring that the frequentist operational characteristics of the primary trial outcome are stronger than the design prior. Compared to current approaches to Bayesian design, we focus on defining a sample size cost commensurate to the prior to ensure against the possibility of prior-data conflict. Our approach is ethical, in that it calls for quantification of the level of clinical equipoise at design stage and requires the design to be appropriate to disturb this initial equipoise by a pre-specified amount. Four examples are discussed, illustrating the design of phase II-III trials with binary or time to event endpoints. Sample sizes are shown to be conductive to strong levels of overall evidence, whether positive or negative, increasing the conclusiveness of the design and associated trial outcome. Levels of negative evidence provided by standard group sequential designs are found negligible, underscoring the importance of complementing traditional efficacy boundaries with futility rules.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the classical setup where recommendation candidates are evaluated by their coherence with past user behavior, by predicting either the missing entries in the user-item matrix, or the most likely next event. To bridge this gap, we optimize a recommendation policy for the task of increasing the desired outcome versus the organic user behavior. We show this is equivalent to learning to predict recommendation outcomes under a fully random recommendation policy. To this end, we propose a new domain adaptation algorithm that learns from logged data containing outcomes from a biased recommendation policy and predicts recommendation outcomes according to random exposure. We compare our method against state-of-the-art factorization methods, in addition to new approaches of causal recommendation and show significant improvements.

To address the sparsity and cold start problem of collaborative filtering, researchers usually make use of side information, such as social networks or item attributes, to improve recommendation performance. This paper considers the knowledge graph as the source of side information. To address the limitations of existing embedding-based and path-based methods for knowledge-graph-aware recommendation, we propose Ripple Network, an end-to-end framework that naturally incorporates the knowledge graph into recommender systems. Similar to actual ripples propagating on the surface of water, Ripple Network stimulates the propagation of user preferences over the set of knowledge entities by automatically and iteratively extending a user's potential interests along links in the knowledge graph. The multiple "ripples" activated by a user's historically clicked items are thus superposed to form the preference distribution of the user with respect to a candidate item, which could be used for predicting the final clicking probability. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that Ripple Network achieves substantial gains in a variety of scenarios, including movie, book and news recommendation, over several state-of-the-art baselines.