Correlated time series analysis plays an important role in many real-world industries. Learning an efficient representation of this large-scale data for further downstream tasks is necessary but challenging. In this paper, we propose a time-step-level representation learning framework for individual instances via bootstrapped spatiotemporal representation prediction. We evaluated the effectiveness and flexibility of our representation learning framework on correlated time series forecasting and cold-start transferring the forecasting model to new instances with limited data. A linear regression model trained on top of the learned representations demonstrates our model performs best in most cases. Especially compared to representation learning models, we reduce the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE by 37%, 49%, and 48% on the PeMS-BAY dataset, respectively. Furthermore, in real-world metro passenger flow data, our framework demonstrates the ability to transfer to infer future information of new cold-start instances, with gains of 15%, 19%, and 18%. The source code will be released under the GitHub //github.com/bonaldli/Spatiotemporal-TS-Representation-Learning
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We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.
Although audio-visual representation has been proved to be applicable in many downstream tasks, the representation of dancing videos, which is more specific and always accompanied by music with complex auditory contents, remains challenging and uninvestigated. Considering the intrinsic alignment between the cadent movement of dancer and music rhythm, we introduce MuDaR, a novel Music-Dance Representation learning framework to perform the synchronization of music and dance rhythms both in explicit and implicit ways. Specifically, we derive the dance rhythms based on visual appearance and motion cues inspired by the music rhythm analysis. Then the visual rhythms are temporally aligned with the music counterparts, which are extracted by the amplitude of sound intensity. Meanwhile, we exploit the implicit coherence of rhythms implied in audio and visual streams by contrastive learning. The model learns the joint embedding by predicting the temporal consistency between audio-visual pairs. The music-dance representation, together with the capability of detecting audio and visual rhythms, can further be applied to three downstream tasks: (a) dance classification, (b) music-dance retrieval, and (c) music-dance retargeting. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed framework outperforms other self-supervised methods by a large margin.
Video Semantic Role Labeling (VidSRL) aims to detect the salient events from given videos, by recognizing the predict-argument event structures and the interrelationships between events. While recent endeavors have put forth methods for VidSRL, they can be mostly subject to two key drawbacks, including the lack of fine-grained spatial scene perception and the insufficiently modeling of video temporality. Towards this end, this work explores a novel holistic spatio-temporal scene graph (namely HostSG) representation based on the existing dynamic scene graph structures, which well model both the fine-grained spatial semantics and temporal dynamics of videos for VidSRL. Built upon the HostSG, we present a nichetargeting VidSRL framework. A scene-event mapping mechanism is first designed to bridge the gap between the underlying scene structure and the high-level event semantic structure, resulting in an overall hierarchical scene-event (termed ICE) graph structure. We further perform iterative structure refinement to optimize the ICE graph, such that the overall structure representation can best coincide with end task demand. Finally, three subtask predictions of VidSRL are jointly decoded, where the end-to-end paradigm effectively avoids error propagation. On the benchmark dataset, our framework boosts significantly over the current best-performing model. Further analyses are shown for a better understanding of the advances of our methods.
With the rise in popularity of digital Atlases to communicate spatial variation, there is an increasing need for robust small-area estimates. However, current small-area estimation methods suffer from various modelling problems when data are very sparse or when estimates are required for areas with very small populations. These issues are particularly heightened when modelling proportions. Additionally, recent work has shown significant benefits in modelling at both the individual and area levels. We propose a two-stage Bayesian hierarchical small area estimation model for proportions that can: account for survey design; use both individual-level survey-only covariates and area-level census covariates; reduce direct estimate instability; and generate prevalence estimates for small areas with no survey data. Using a simulation study we show that, compared with existing Bayesian small area estimation methods, our model can provide optimal predictive performance (Bayesian mean relative root mean squared error, mean absolute relative bias and coverage) of proportions under a variety of data conditions, including very sparse and unstable data. To assess the model in practice, we compare modeled estimates of current smoking prevalence for 1,630 small areas in Australia using the 2017-2018 National Health Survey data combined with 2016 census data.
Logical reasoning consistently plays a fundamental and significant role in the domains of knowledge engineering and artificial intelligence. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a noteworthy innovation in natural language processing (NLP), exhibiting impressive achievements across various classic NLP tasks. However, the question of whether LLMs can effectively address the task of logical reasoning, which requires gradual cognitive inference similar to human intelligence, remains unanswered. To this end, we aim to bridge this gap and provide comprehensive evaluations in this paper. Firstly, to offer systematic evaluations, we select fifteen typical logical reasoning datasets and organize them into deductive, inductive, abductive and mixed-form reasoning settings. Considering the comprehensiveness of evaluations, we include three representative LLMs (i.e., text-davinci-003, ChatGPT and BARD) and evaluate them on all selected datasets under zero-shot, one-shot and three-shot settings. Secondly, different from previous evaluations relying only on simple metrics (e.g., accuracy), we propose fine-level evaluations from objective and subjective manners, covering both answers and explanations. Additionally, to uncover the logical flaws of LLMs, problematic cases will be attributed to five error types from two dimensions, i.e., evidence selection process and reasoning process. Thirdly, to avoid the influences of knowledge bias and purely focus on benchmarking the logical reasoning capability of LLMs, we propose a new dataset with neutral content. It contains 3,000 samples and covers deductive, inductive and abductive settings. Based on the in-depth evaluations, this paper finally forms a general evaluation scheme of logical reasoning capability from six dimensions. It reflects the pros and cons of LLMs and gives guiding directions for future works.
Stereoscopic image quality assessment (SIQA) plays a crucial role in evaluating and improving the visual experience of 3D content. Existing binocular properties and attention-based methods for SIQA have achieved promising performance. However, these bottom-up approaches are inadequate in exploiting the inherent characteristics of the human visual system (HVS). This paper presents a novel network for SIQA via stereo attention, employing a top-down perspective to guide the quality assessment process. Our proposed method realizes the guidance from high-level binocular signals down to low-level monocular signals, while the binocular and monocular information can be calibrated progressively throughout the processing pipeline. We design a generalized Stereo AttenTion (SAT) block to implement the top-down philosophy in stereo perception. This block utilizes the fusion-generated attention map as a high-level binocular modulator, influencing the representation of two low-level monocular features. Additionally, we introduce an Energy Coefficient (EC) to account for recent findings indicating that binocular responses in the primate primary visual cortex are less than the sum of monocular responses. The adaptive EC can tune the magnitude of binocular response flexibly, thus enhancing the formation of robust binocular features within our framework. To extract the most discriminative quality information from the summation and subtraction of the two branches of monocular features, we utilize a dual-pooling strategy that applies min-pooling and max-pooling operations to the respective branches. Experimental results highlight the superiority of our top-down method in simulating the property of visual perception and advancing the state-of-the-art in the SIQA field. The code of this work is available at //github.com/Fanning-Zhang/SATNet.
This paper considers a two-player game where each player chooses a resource from a finite collection of options. Each resource brings a random reward. Both players have statistical information regarding the rewards of each resource. Additionally, there exists an information asymmetry where each player has knowledge of the reward realizations of different subsets of the resources. If both players choose the same resource, the reward is divided equally between them, whereas if they choose different resources, each player gains the full reward of the resource. We first implement the iterative best response algorithm to find an $\epsilon$-approximate Nash equilibrium for this game. This method of finding a Nash equilibrium may not be desirable when players do not trust each other and place no assumptions on the incentives of the opponent. To handle this case, we solve the problem of maximizing the worst-case expected utility of the first player. The solution leads to counter-intuitive insights in certain special cases. To solve the general version of the problem, we develop an efficient algorithmic solution that combines online-convex optimization and the drift-plus penalty technique.
Emotion plays an important role in detecting fake news online. When leveraging emotional signals, the existing methods focus on exploiting the emotions of news contents that conveyed by the publishers (i.e., publisher emotion). However, fake news is always fabricated to evoke high-arousal or activating emotions of people to spread like a virus, so the emotions of news comments that aroused by the crowd (i.e., social emotion) can not be ignored. Furthermore, it needs to be explored whether there exists a relationship between publisher emotion and social emotion (i.e., dual emotion), and how the dual emotion appears in fake news. In the paper, we propose Dual Emotion Features to mine dual emotion and the relationship between them for fake news detection. And we design a universal paradigm to plug it into any existing detectors as an enhancement. Experimental results on three real-world datasets indicate the effectiveness of the proposed features.
Learning with limited data is a key challenge for visual recognition. Few-shot learning methods address this challenge by learning an instance embedding function from seen classes and apply the function to instances from unseen classes with limited labels. This style of transfer learning is task-agnostic: the embedding function is not learned optimally discriminative with respect to the unseen classes, where discerning among them is the target task. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to adapt the embedding model to the target classification task, yielding embeddings that are task-specific and are discriminative. To this end, we employ a type of self-attention mechanism called Transformer to transform the embeddings from task-agnostic to task-specific by focusing on relating instances from the test instances to the training instances in both seen and unseen classes. Our approach also extends to both transductive and generalized few-shot classification, two important settings that have essential use cases. We verify the effectiveness of our model on two standard benchmark few-shot classification datasets --- MiniImageNet and CUB, where our approach demonstrates state-of-the-art empirical performance.
Medical image segmentation requires consensus ground truth segmentations to be derived from multiple expert annotations. A novel approach is proposed that obtains consensus segmentations from experts using graph cuts (GC) and semi supervised learning (SSL). Popular approaches use iterative Expectation Maximization (EM) to estimate the final annotation and quantify annotator's performance. Such techniques pose the risk of getting trapped in local minima. We propose a self consistency (SC) score to quantify annotator consistency using low level image features. SSL is used to predict missing annotations by considering global features and local image consistency. The SC score also serves as the penalty cost in a second order Markov random field (MRF) cost function optimized using graph cuts to derive the final consensus label. Graph cut obtains a global maximum without an iterative procedure. Experimental results on synthetic images, real data of Crohn's disease patients and retinal images show our final segmentation to be accurate and more consistent than competing methods.
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