To make accurate inferences in an interactive setting, an agent must not confuse passive observation of events with having participated in causing those events. The do operator formalises interventions so that we may reason about their effect. Yet there exist at least two pareto optimal mathematical formalisms of general intelligence in an interactive setting which, presupposing no explicit representation of intervention, make maximally accurate inferences. We examine one such formalism. We show that in the absence of an operator, an intervention can still be represented by a variable. Furthermore, the need to explicitly represent interventions in advance arises only because we presuppose abstractions. The aforementioned formalism avoids this and so, initial conditions permitting, representations of relevant causal interventions will emerge through induction. These emergent abstractions function as representations of one`s self and of any other object, inasmuch as the interventions of those objects impact the satisfaction of goals. We argue (with reference to theory of mind) that this explains how one might reason about one`s own identity and intent, those of others, of one's own as perceived by others and so on. In a narrow sense this describes what it is to be aware, and is a mechanistic explanation of aspects of consciousness.
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Are Chebyshev-based stability analysis and Urabe's error bound useful features for Harmonic Balance?
Harmonic Balance is one of the most popular methods for computing periodic solutions of nonlinear dynamical systems. In this work, we address two of its major shortcomings: First, we investigate to what extent the computational burden of stability analysis can be reduced by consistent use of Chebyshev polynomials. Second, we address the problem of a rigorous error bound, which, to the authors' knowledge, has been ignored in all engineering applications so far. Here, we rely on Urabe's error bound and, again, use Chebyshev polynomials for the computationally involved operations. We use the error estimate to automatically adjust the harmonic truncation order during numerical continuation, and confront the algorithm with a state-of-the-art adaptive Harmonic Balance implementation. Further, we rigorously prove, for the first time, the existence of some isolated periodic solutions of the forced-damped Duffing oscillator with softening characteristic. We find that the effort for obtaining a rigorous error bound, in its present form, may be too high to be useful for many engineering problems. Based on the results obtained for a sequence of numerical examples, we conclude that Chebyshev-based stability analysis indeed permits a substantial speedup. Like Harmonic Balance itself, however, this method becomes inefficient when an extremely high truncation order is needed as, e.g., in the presence of (sharply regularized) discontinuities.
A distributed system is permissionless when participants can join and leave the network without permission from a central authority. Many modern distributed systems are naturally permissionless, in the sense that a central permissioning authority would defeat their design purpose: this includes blockchains, filesharing protocols, some voting systems, and more. By their permissionless nature, such systems are heterogeneous: participants may only have a partial view of the system, and they may also have different goals and beliefs. Thus, the traditional notion of consensus -- i.e. system-wide agreement -- may not be adequate, and we may need to generalise it. This is a challenge: how should we understand what heterogeneous consensus is; what mathematical framework might this require; and how can we use this to build understanding and mathematical models of robust, effective, and secure permissionless systems in practice? We analyse heterogeneous consensus using semitopology as a framework. This is like topology, but without the restriction that intersections of opens be open. Semitopologies have a rich theory which is related to topology, but with its own distinct character and mathematics. We introduce novel well-behavedness conditions, including an anti-Hausdorff property and a new notion of `topen set', and we show how these structures relate to consensus. We give a restriction of semitopologies to witness semitopologies, which are an algorithmically tractable subclass corresponding to Horn clause theories, having particularly good mathematical properties. We introduce and study several other basic notions that are specific and novel to semitopologies, and study how known quantities in topology, such as dense subsets and closures, display interesting and useful new behaviour in this new semitopological context.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has made incredible progress recently. On the one hand, advanced foundation models like ChatGPT can offer powerful conversation, in-context learning and code generation abilities on a broad range of open-domain tasks. They can also generate high-level solution outlines for domain-specific tasks based on the common sense knowledge they have acquired. However, they still face difficulties with some specialized tasks because they lack enough domain-specific data during pre-training or they often have errors in their neural network computations on those tasks that need accurate executions. On the other hand, there are also many existing models and systems (symbolic-based or neural-based) that can do some domain-specific tasks very well. However, due to the different implementation or working mechanisms, they are not easily accessible or compatible with foundation models. Therefore, there is a clear and pressing need for a mechanism that can leverage foundation models to propose task solution outlines and then automatically match some of the sub-tasks in the outlines to the off-the-shelf models and systems with special functionalities to complete them. Inspired by this, we introduce TaskMatrix.AI as a new AI ecosystem that connects foundation models with millions of APIs for task completion. Unlike most previous work that aimed to improve a single AI model, TaskMatrix.AI focuses more on using existing foundation models (as a brain-like central system) and APIs of other AI models and systems (as sub-task solvers) to achieve diversified tasks in both digital and physical domains. As a position paper, we will present our vision of how to build such an ecosystem, explain each key component, and use study cases to illustrate both the feasibility of this vision and the main challenges we need to address next.
Artificial intelligence (AI) researchers have been developing and refining large language models (LLMs) that exhibit remarkable capabilities across a variety of domains and tasks, challenging our understanding of learning and cognition. The latest model developed by OpenAI, GPT-4, was trained using an unprecedented scale of compute and data. In this paper, we report on our investigation of an early version of GPT-4, when it was still in active development by OpenAI. We contend that (this early version of) GPT-4 is part of a new cohort of LLMs (along with ChatGPT and Google's PaLM for example) that exhibit more general intelligence than previous AI models. We discuss the rising capabilities and implications of these models. We demonstrate that, beyond its mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks that span mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology and more, without needing any special prompting. Moreover, in all of these tasks, GPT-4's performance is strikingly close to human-level performance, and often vastly surpasses prior models such as ChatGPT. Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system. In our exploration of GPT-4, we put special emphasis on discovering its limitations, and we discuss the challenges ahead for advancing towards deeper and more comprehensive versions of AGI, including the possible need for pursuing a new paradigm that moves beyond next-word prediction. We conclude with reflections on societal influences of the recent technological leap and future research directions.
We formulate a stochastic process, FiLex, as a mathematical model of lexicon entropy in deep learning-based emergent language systems. Defining a model mathematically allows it to generate clear predictions which can be directly and decisively tested. We empirically verify across four different environments that FiLex predicts the correct correlation between hyperparameters (training steps, lexicon size, learning rate, rollout buffer size, and Gumbel-Softmax temperature) and the emergent language's entropy in 20 out of 20 environment-hyperparameter combinations. Furthermore, our experiments reveal that different environments show diverse relationships between their hyperparameters and entropy which demonstrates the need for a model which can make well-defined predictions at a precise level of granularity.
Large language models (LLMs) are currently at the forefront of intertwining AI systems with human communication and everyday life. Due to rapid technological advances and their extreme versatility, LLMs nowadays have millions of users and are at the cusp of being the main go-to technology for information retrieval, content generation, problem-solving, etc. Therefore, it is of great importance to thoroughly assess and scrutinize their capabilities. Due to increasingly complex and novel behavioral patterns in current LLMs, this can be done by treating them as participants in psychology experiments that were originally designed to test humans. For this purpose, the paper introduces a new field of research called "machine psychology". The paper outlines how different subfields of psychology can inform behavioral tests for LLMs. It defines methodological standards for machine psychology research, especially by focusing on policies for prompt designs. Additionally, it describes how behavioral patterns discovered in LLMs are to be interpreted. In sum, machine psychology aims to discover emergent abilities in LLMs that cannot be detected by most traditional natural language processing benchmarks.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.
Autonomous driving has achieved a significant milestone in research and development over the last decade. There is increasing interest in the field as the deployment of self-operating vehicles on roads promises safer and more ecologically friendly transportation systems. With the rise of computationally powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, autonomous vehicles can sense their environment with high precision, make safe real-time decisions, and operate more reliably without human interventions. However, intelligent decision-making in autonomous cars is not generally understandable by humans in the current state of the art, and such deficiency hinders this technology from being socially acceptable. Hence, aside from making safe real-time decisions, the AI systems of autonomous vehicles also need to explain how these decisions are constructed in order to be regulatory compliant across many jurisdictions. Our study sheds a comprehensive light on developing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches for autonomous vehicles. In particular, we make the following contributions. First, we provide a thorough overview of the present gaps with respect to explanations in the state-of-the-art autonomous vehicle industry. We then show the taxonomy of explanations and explanation receivers in this field. Thirdly, we propose a framework for an architecture of end-to-end autonomous driving systems and justify the role of XAI in both debugging and regulating such systems. Finally, as future research directions, we provide a field guide on XAI approaches for autonomous driving that can improve operational safety and transparency towards achieving public approval by regulators, manufacturers, and all engaged stakeholders.
AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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