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The limitations of turbulence closure models in the context of Reynolds-averaged NavierStokes (RANS) simulations play a significant part in contributing to the uncertainty of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Perturbing the spectral representation of the Reynolds stress tensor within physical limits is common practice in several commercial and open-source CFD solvers, in order to obtain estimates for the epistemic uncertainties of RANS turbulence models. Recent research revealed, that there is a need for moderating the amount of perturbed Reynolds stress tensor tensor to be considered due to upcoming stability issues of the solver. In this paper we point out that the consequent common implementation can lead to unintended states of the resulting perturbed Reynolds stress tensor. The combination of eigenvector perturbation and moderation factor may actually result in moderated eigenvalues, which are not linearly dependent on the originally unperturbed and fully perturbed eigenvalues anymore. Hence, the computational implementation is no longer in accordance with the conceptual idea of the Eigenspace Perturbation Framework. We verify the implementation of the conceptual description with respect to its self-consistency. Adequately representing the basic concept results in formulating a computational implementation to improve self-consistency of the Reynolds stress tensor perturbation

In this paper, we design sub-linear space streaming algorithms for estimating three fundamental parameters -- maximum independent set, minimum dominating set and maximum matching -- on sparse graph classes, i.e., graphs which satisfy $m=O(n)$ where $m,n$ is the number of edges, vertices respectively. Each of the three graph parameters we consider can have size $\Omega(n)$ even on sparse graph classes, and hence for sublinear-space algorithms we are restricted to parameter estimation instead of attempting to find a solution.

In Bayesian inference, the approximation of integrals of the form $\psi = \mathbb{E}_{F}{l(X)} = \int_{\chi} l(\mathbf{x}) d F(\mathbf{x})$ is a fundamental challenge. Such integrals are crucial for evidence estimation, which is important for various purposes, including model selection and numerical analysis. The existing strategies for evidence estimation are classified into four categories: deterministic approximation, density estimation, importance sampling, and vertical representation (Llorente et al., 2020). In this paper, we show that the Riemann sum estimator due to Yakowitz (1978) can be used in the context of nested sampling (Skilling, 2006) to achieve a $O(n^{-4})$ rate of convergence, faster than the usual Ergodic Central Limit Theorem. We provide a brief overview of the literature on the Riemann sum estimators and the nested sampling algorithm and its connections to vertical likelihood Monte Carlo. We provide theoretical and numerical arguments to show how merging these two ideas may result in improved and more robust estimators for evidence estimation, especially in higher dimensional spaces. We also briefly discuss the idea of simulating the Lorenz curve that avoids the problem of intractable $\Lambda$ functions, essential for the vertical representation and nested sampling.

This paper studies delayed stochastic algorithms for weakly convex optimization in a distributed network with workers connected to a master node. More specifically, we consider a structured stochastic weakly convex objective function which is the composition of a convex function and a smooth nonconvex function. Recently, Xu et al. 2022 showed that an inertial stochastic subgradient method converges at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(\tau/\sqrt{K})$, which suffers a significant penalty from the maximum information delay $\tau$. To alleviate this issue, we propose a new delayed stochastic prox-linear ($\texttt{DSPL}$) method in which the master performs the proximal update of the parameters and the workers only need to linearly approximate the inner smooth function. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that the delays only affect the high order term in the complexity rate and hence, are negligible after a certain number of $\texttt{DSPL}$ iterations. Moreover, to further improve the empirical performance, we propose a delayed extrapolated prox-linear ($\texttt{DSEPL}$) method which employs Polyak-type momentum to speed up the algorithm convergence. Building on the tools for analyzing $\texttt{DSPL}$, we also develop improved analysis of delayed stochastic subgradient method ($\texttt{DSGD}$). In particular, for general weakly convex problems, we show that convergence of $\texttt{DSGD}$ only depends on the expected delay.

Estimating causal effects from observational data is a central problem in many domains. A general approach is to balance covariates with weights such that the distribution of the data mimics randomization. We present generalized balancing weights, Neural Balancing Weights (NBW), to estimate the causal effects of an arbitrary mixture of discrete and continuous interventions. The weights were obtained through direct estimation of the density ratio between the source and balanced distributions by optimizing the variational representation of $f$-divergence. For this, we selected $\alpha$-divergence as it presents efficient optimization because it has an estimator whose sample complexity is independent of its ground truth value and unbiased mini-batch gradients; moreover, it is advantageous for the vanishing-gradient problem. In addition, we provide the following two methods for estimating the balancing weights: improving the generalization performance of the balancing weights and checking the balance of the distribution changed by the weights. Finally, we discuss the sample size requirements for the weights as a general problem of a curse of dimensionality when balancing multidimensional data. Our study provides a basic approach for estimating the balancing weights of multidimensional data using variational $f$-divergences.

We propose a deep importance sampling method that is suitable for estimating rare event probabilities in high-dimensional problems. We approximate the optimal importance distribution in a general importance sampling problem as the pushforward of a reference distribution under a composition of order-preserving transformations, in which each transformation is formed by a squared tensor-train decomposition. The squared tensor-train decomposition provides a scalable ansatz for building order-preserving high-dimensional transformations via density approximations. The use of composition of maps moving along a sequence of bridging densities alleviates the difficulty of directly approximating concentrated density functions. To compute expectations over unnormalized probability distributions, we design a ratio estimator that estimates the normalizing constant using a separate importance distribution, again constructed via a composition of transformations in tensor-train format. This offers better theoretical variance reduction compared with self-normalized importance sampling, and thus opens the door to efficient computation of rare event probabilities in Bayesian inference problems. Numerical experiments on problems constrained by differential equations show little to no increase in the computational complexity with the event probability going to zero, and allow to compute hitherto unattainable estimates of rare event probabilities for complex, high-dimensional posterior densities.

In this paper, we study the problem of robust sparse mean estimation, where the goal is to estimate a $k$-sparse mean from a collection of partially corrupted samples drawn from a heavy-tailed distribution. Existing estimators face two critical challenges in this setting. First, they are limited by a conjectured computational-statistical tradeoff, implying that any computationally efficient algorithm needs $\tilde\Omega(k^2)$ samples, while its statistically-optimal counterpart only requires $\tilde O(k)$ samples. Second, the existing estimators fall short of practical use as they scale poorly with the ambient dimension. This paper presents a simple mean estimator that overcomes both challenges under moderate conditions: it runs in near-linear time and memory (both with respect to the ambient dimension) while requiring only $\tilde O(k)$ samples to recover the true mean. At the core of our method lies an incremental learning phenomenon: we introduce a simple nonconvex framework that can incrementally learn the top-$k$ nonzero elements of the mean while keeping the zero elements arbitrarily small. Unlike existing estimators, our method does not need any prior knowledge of the sparsity level $k$. We prove the optimality of our estimator by providing a matching information-theoretic lower bound. Finally, we conduct a series of simulations to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our code is available at //github.com/huihui0902/Robust_mean_estimation.

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the non-proportional hazards assumption. We propose nonparametric Bayeisan (BNP) estimators for RMST using a dependent stick-breaking process prior mixture model that adjusts for mixed-type covariates. The proposed Bayesian estimators can yield both group-level causal estimate and subject-level predictions. Besides, we propose a novel dependent stick-breaking process prior that on average results in narrower credible intervals while maintaining similar coverage probability compared to a dependent probit stick-breaking process prior. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed BNP RMST estimators compared to existing frequentist approaches and under different Bayesian modeling choices. The proposed framework is applied to estimate the treatment effect of an immuno therapy among KRAS wild-type colorectal cancer patients.

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.

Substantial progress has been made recently on developing provably accurate and efficient algorithms for low-rank matrix factorization via nonconvex optimization. While conventional wisdom often takes a dim view of nonconvex optimization algorithms due to their susceptibility to spurious local minima, simple iterative methods such as gradient descent have been remarkably successful in practice. The theoretical footings, however, had been largely lacking until recently. In this tutorial-style overview, we highlight the important role of statistical models in enabling efficient nonconvex optimization with performance guarantees. We review two contrasting approaches: (1) two-stage algorithms, which consist of a tailored initialization step followed by successive refinement; and (2) global landscape analysis and initialization-free algorithms. Several canonical matrix factorization problems are discussed, including but not limited to matrix sensing, phase retrieval, matrix completion, blind deconvolution, robust principal component analysis, phase synchronization, and joint alignment. Special care is taken to illustrate the key technical insights underlying their analyses. This article serves as a testament that the integrated consideration of optimization and statistics leads to fruitful research findings.