Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding, induced when there are many confounders relative to sample size, or complex relationships between continuous confounders and exposure and outcome. As a promising avenue to overcome this challenge, doubly robust methods (Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE)) enable the use of data-adaptive approaches to fit the two models they involve. Biased standard errors may result when the data-adaptive approaches used are very complex. The coupling of doubly robust methods with cross-fitting has been proposed to tackle this. Despite advances, limited evaluation, comparison, and guidance are available on the implementation of AIPW and TMLE with data-adaptive approaches and cross-fitting in realistic settings where high-dimensional confounding is present. We conducted an extensive simulation study to compare the relative performance of AIPW and TMLE using data-adaptive approaches in estimating the average causal effect (ACE) and evaluated the benefits of using cross-fitting with a varying number of folds, as well as the impact of using a reduced versus full (larger, more diverse) library in the Super Learner (SL) ensemble learning approach used for the data-adaptive models. A range of scenarios in terms of data generation, and sample size were considered. We found that AIPW and TMLE performed similarly in most cases for estimating the ACE, but TMLE was more stable. Cross-fitting improved the performance of both methods, with the number of folds a less important consideration. Using a full SL library was important to reduce bias and variance in the complex scenarios typical of modern health research studies.
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With the development of deep learning technology, the detection and classification of distracted driving behaviour requires higher accuracy. Existing deep learning-based methods are computationally intensive and parameter redundant, limiting the efficiency and accuracy in practical applications. To solve this problem, this study proposes an improved YOLOv8 detection method based on the original YOLOv8 model by integrating the BoTNet module, GAM attention mechanism and EIoU loss function. By optimising the feature extraction and multi-scale feature fusion strategies, the training and inference processes are simplified, and the detection accuracy and efficiency are significantly improved. Experimental results show that the improved model performs well in both detection speed and accuracy, with an accuracy rate of 99.4%, and the model is smaller and easy to deploy, which is able to identify and classify distracted driving behaviours in real time, provide timely warnings, and enhance driving safety.
Although passivization is productive in English, it is not completely general -- some exceptions exist (e.g. *One hour was lasted by the meeting). How do English speakers learn these exceptions to an otherwise general pattern? Using neural network language models as theories of acquisition, we explore the sources of indirect evidence that a learner can leverage to learn whether a verb can passivize. We first characterize English speakers' judgments of exceptions to the passive, confirming that speakers find some verbs more passivizable than others. We then show that a neural network language model can learn restrictions to the passive that are similar to those displayed by humans, suggesting that evidence for these exceptions is available in the linguistic input. We test the causal role of two hypotheses for how the language model learns these restrictions by training models on modified training corpora, which we create by altering the existing training corpora to remove features of the input implicated by each hypothesis. We find that while the frequency with which a verb appears in the passive significantly affects its passivizability, the semantics of the verb does not. This study highlight the utility of altering a language model's training data for answering questions where complete control over a learner's input is vital.
In this paper we consider the numerical solution of fractional terminal value problems (FDE-TVPs). In particular, the proposed procedure uses a Newton-type iteration which is particularly efficient when coupled with a recently-introduced step-by-step procedure for solving fractional initial value problems (FDE-IVPs), able to produce spectrally accurate solutions of FDE problems. Some numerical tests are reported to make evidence of its effectiveness.
Due to the effective performance of multi-scale feature fusion, Path Aggregation FPN (PAFPN) is widely employed in YOLO detectors. However, it cannot efficiently and adaptively integrate high-level semantic information with low-level spatial information simultaneously. We propose a new model named MAF-YOLO in this paper, which is a novel object detection framework with a versatile neck named Multi-Branch Auxiliary FPN (MAFPN). Within MAFPN, the Superficial Assisted Fusion (SAF) module is designed to combine the output of the backbone with the neck, preserving an optimal level of shallow information to facilitate subsequent learning. Meanwhile, the Advanced Assisted Fusion (AAF) module deeply embedded within the neck conveys a more diverse range of gradient information to the output layer. Furthermore, our proposed Re-parameterized Heterogeneous Efficient Layer Aggregation Network (RepHELAN) module ensures that both the overall model architecture and convolutional design embrace the utilization of heterogeneous large convolution kernels. Therefore, this guarantees the preservation of information related to small targets while simultaneously achieving the multi-scale receptive field. Finally, taking the nano version of MAF-YOLO for example, it can achieve 42.4% AP on COCO with only 3.76M learnable parameters and 10.51G FLOPs, and approximately outperforms YOLOv8n by about 5.1%. The source code of this work is available at: //github.com/yang-0201/MAF-YOLO.
This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: //github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents
Measuring a qubit is a fundamental yet error prone operation in quantum computing. These errors can stem from various sources such as crosstalk, spontaneous state-transitions, and excitation caused by the readout pulse. In this work, we utilize an integrated approach to deploy neural networks (NN) on to field programmable gate arrays (FPGA). We demonstrate that it is practical to design and implement a fully connected neural network accelerator for frequency-multiplexed readout balancing computational complexity with low latency requirements without significant loss in accuracy. The neural network is implemented by quantization of weights, activation functions, and inputs. The hardware accelerator performs frequency-multiplexed readout of 5 superconducting qubits in less than 50 ns on RFSoC ZCU111 FPGA which is first of its kind in the literature. These modules can be implemented and integrated in existing Quantum control and readout platforms using a RFSoC ZCU111 ready for experimental deployment.
A Variable Parameter (VP) analysis aims to give precise time complexity expressions of algorithms with exponents appearing solely in terms of variable parameters. A variable parameter is the number of objects with specific properties. Here we describe two VP-algorithms, an implicit enumeration and a polynomial-time approximation scheme for a strongly $NP$-hard problem of scheduling $n$ independent jobs with release and due times on one machine to minimize the maximum job completion time $C_{\max}$. Our variable parameters are the amounts of some specially defined types of jobs. A partial solution without these jobs is constructed in a low degree polynomial time, and an exponential time procedure (in the number of variable parameters) is carried out to augment it to a complete optimal solution. In the alternative time complexity expressions, the exponential dependence is solely on the some job parameters. Applying the fixed parameter analysis to these estimations, a polynomial-time dependence is achieved. Both, the intuitive probabilistic estimations and our extensive experimental study support our conjecture that the total number of the variable parameters is far less than $n$ and its ratio to $n$ converges to 0 asymptotically.
The Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN) is a widely used standard notation for defining intra- and inter-organizational workflows. However, the informal description of the BPMN execution semantics leads to different interpretations of BPMN elements and difficulties in checking behavioral properties. In this article, we propose a formalization of the execution semantics of BPMN that, compared to existing approaches, covers more BPMN elements while also facilitating property checking. Our approach is based on a higher-order transformation from BPMN models to graph transformation systems. To show the capabilities of our approach, we implemented it as an open-source web-based tool.
This dissertation studies a fundamental open challenge in deep learning theory: why do deep networks generalize well even while being overparameterized, unregularized and fitting the training data to zero error? In the first part of the thesis, we will empirically study how training deep networks via stochastic gradient descent implicitly controls the networks' capacity. Subsequently, to show how this leads to better generalization, we will derive {\em data-dependent} {\em uniform-convergence-based} generalization bounds with improved dependencies on the parameter count. Uniform convergence has in fact been the most widely used tool in deep learning literature, thanks to its simplicity and generality. Given its popularity, in this thesis, we will also take a step back to identify the fundamental limits of uniform convergence as a tool to explain generalization. In particular, we will show that in some example overparameterized settings, {\em any} uniform convergence bound will provide only a vacuous generalization bound. With this realization in mind, in the last part of the thesis, we will change course and introduce an {\em empirical} technique to estimate generalization using unlabeled data. Our technique does not rely on any notion of uniform-convergece-based complexity and is remarkably precise. We will theoretically show why our technique enjoys such precision. We will conclude by discussing how future work could explore novel ways to incorporate distributional assumptions in generalization bounds (such as in the form of unlabeled data) and explore other tools to derive bounds, perhaps by modifying uniform convergence or by developing completely new tools altogether.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
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