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Modeling fuzziness and imprecision in human rating data is a crucial problem in many research areas, including applied statistics, behavioral, social, and health sciences. Because of the interplay between cognitive, affective, and contextual factors, the process of answering survey questions is a complex task, which can barely be captured by standard (crisp) rating responses. Fuzzy rating scales have progressively been adopted to overcome some of the limitations of standard rating scales, including their inability to disentangle decision uncertainty from individual responses. The aim of this article is to provide a novel fuzzy scaling procedure which uses Item Response Theory trees (IRTrees) as a psychometric model for the stage-wise latent response process. In so doing, fuzziness of rating data is modeled using the overall rater's pattern of responses instead of being computed using a single-item based approach. This offers a consistent system for interpreting fuzziness in terms of individual-based decision uncertainty. A simulation study and two empirical applications are adopted to assess the characteristics of the proposed model and provide converging results about its effectiveness in modeling fuzziness and imprecision in rating data.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 振蕩 · 級聯 · 變換 · 數值分析 ·
2022 年 2 月 10 日

Voltage fluctuations are common disturbances in power grids, therefore the effective and selective process of identification and localization of individual voltage fluctuations sources is necessary for the minimization of such disturbances. Selectivity in the process of identification and localization disturbing loads is possible by the use cascade of blocks: demodulation, decomposition and propagation assessment. The effectiveness of this approach is closely related to the used method of decomposition. The paper presents the problem of decomposition process for the selected method of selective identification and localization of voltage fluctuation sources, in which the algorithm of enhanced empirical wavelet transform (EEWT) is used as the decomposition method. The paper presents selected research results from the real power grid, for which the result of selected approach causes mistakes in the process of identification and localization of voltage fluctuations sources. The potential causes of such mistakes related to the decomposition process are discussed on the basis of obtained research results.

Probabilistic databases (PDBs) model uncertainty in data in a quantitative way. In the established formal framework, probabilistic (relational) databases are finite probability spaces over relational database instances. This finiteness can clash with intuitive query behavior (Ceylan et al., KR 2016), and with application scenarios that are better modeled by continuous probability distributions (Dalvi et al., CACM 2009). We formally introduced infinite PDBs in (Grohe and Lindner, PODS 2019) with a primary focus on countably infinite spaces. However, an extension beyond countable probability spaces raises nontrivial foundational issues concerned with the measurability of events and queries and ultimately with the question whether queries have a well-defined semantics. We argue that finite point processes are an appropriate model from probability theory for dealing with general probabilistic databases. This allows us to construct suitable (uncountable) probability spaces of database instances in a systematic way. Our main technical results are measurability statements for relational algebra queries as well as aggregate queries and Datalog queries.

In a number of application domains, one observes a sequence of network data; for example, repeated measurements between users interactions in social media platforms, financial correlation networks over time, or across subjects, as in multi-subject studies of brain connectivity. One way to analyze such data is by stacking networks into a third-order array or tensor. We propose a principal components analysis (PCA) framework for sequence network data, based on a novel decomposition for semi-symmetric tensors. We derive efficient algorithms for computing our proposed "Coupled CP" decomposition and establish estimation consistency of our approach under an analogue of the spiked covariance model with rates the same as the matrix case up to a logarithmic term. Our framework inherits many of the strengths of classical PCA and is suitable for a wide range of unsupervised learning tasks, including identifying principal networks, isolating meaningful changepoints or outliers across observations, and for characterizing the "variability network" of the most varying edges. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal on simulated data and on examples from political science and financial economics. The proof techniques used to establish our main consistency results are surprisingly straight-forward and may find use in a variety of other matrix and tensor decomposition problems.

Entity resolution (ER), comprising record linkage and de-duplication, is the process of merging noisy databases in the absence of unique identifiers to remove duplicate entities. One major challenge of analysis with linked data is identifying a representative record among determined matches to pass to an inferential or predictive task, referred to as the \emph{downstream task}. Additionally, incorporating uncertainty from ER in the downstream task is critical to ensure proper inference. To bridge the gap between ER and the downstream task in an analysis pipeline, we propose five methods to choose a representative (or canonical) record from linked data, referred to as canonicalization. Our methods are scalable in the number of records, appropriate in general data scenarios, and provide natural error propagation via a Bayesian canonicalization stage. The proposed methodology is evaluated on three simulated data sets and one application -- determining the relationship between demographic information and party affiliation in voter registration data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections. We first perform Bayesian ER and evaluate our proposed methods for canonicalization before considering the downstream tasks of linear and logistic regression. Bayesian canonicalization methods are empirically shown to improve downstream inference in both settings through prediction and coverage.

Though remarkable progress has been achieved in various vision tasks, deep neural networks still suffer obvious performance degradation when tested in out-of-distribution scenarios. We argue that the feature statistics (mean and standard deviation), which carry the domain characteristics of the training data, can be properly manipulated to improve the generalization ability of deep learning models. Common methods often consider the feature statistics as deterministic values measured from the learned features and do not explicitly consider the uncertain statistics discrepancy caused by potential domain shifts during testing. In this paper, we improve the network generalization ability by modeling the uncertainty of domain shifts with synthesized feature statistics during training. Specifically, we hypothesize that the feature statistic, after considering the potential uncertainties, follows a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Hence, each feature statistic is no longer a deterministic value, but a probabilistic point with diverse distribution possibilities. With the uncertain feature statistics, the models can be trained to alleviate the domain perturbations and achieve better robustness against potential domain shifts. Our method can be readily integrated into networks without additional parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed method consistently improves the network generalization ability on multiple vision tasks, including image classification, semantic segmentation, and instance retrieval. The code will be released soon at //github.com/lixiaotong97/DSU.

Heterogeneous tabular data are the most commonly used form of data and are essential for numerous critical and computationally demanding applications. On homogeneous data sets, deep neural networks have repeatedly shown excellent performance and have therefore been widely adopted. However, their application to modeling tabular data (inference or generation) remains highly challenging. This work provides an overview of state-of-the-art deep learning methods for tabular data. We start by categorizing them into three groups: data transformations, specialized architectures, and regularization models. We then provide a comprehensive overview of the main approaches in each group. A discussion of deep learning approaches for generating tabular data is complemented by strategies for explaining deep models on tabular data. Our primary contribution is to address the main research streams and existing methodologies in this area, while highlighting relevant challenges and open research questions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first in-depth look at deep learning approaches for tabular data. This work can serve as a valuable starting point and guide for researchers and practitioners interested in deep learning with tabular data.

With the emergence of Web 2.0, tag recommenders have become important tools, which aim to support users in finding descriptive tags for their bookmarked resources. Although current algorithms provide good results in terms of tag prediction accuracy, they are often designed in a data-driven way and thus, lack a thorough understanding of the cognitive processes that play a role when people assign tags to resources. This thesis aims at modeling these cognitive dynamics in social tagging in order to improve tag recommendations and to better understand the underlying processes. As a first attempt in this direction, we have implemented an interplay between individual micro-level (e.g., categorizing resources or temporal dynamics) and collective macro-level (e.g., imitating other users' tags) processes in the form of a novel tag recommender algorithm. The preliminary results for datasets gathered from BibSonomy, CiteULike and Delicious show that our proposed approach can outperform current state-of-the-art algorithms, such as Collaborative Filtering, FolkRank or Pairwise Interaction Tensor Factorization. We conclude that recommender systems can be improved by incorporating related principles of human cognition.

Recommender systems (RSs) provide an effective way of alleviating the information overload problem by selecting personalized items for different users. Latent factors based collaborative filtering (CF) has become the popular approaches for RSs due to its accuracy and scalability. Recently, online social networks and user-generated content provide diverse sources for recommendation beyond ratings. Although {\em social matrix factorization} (Social MF) and {\em topic matrix factorization} (Topic MF) successfully exploit social relations and item reviews, respectively, both of them ignore some useful information. In this paper, we investigate the effective data fusion by combining the aforementioned approaches. First, we propose a novel model {\em \mbox{MR3}} to jointly model three sources of information (i.e., ratings, item reviews, and social relations) effectively for rating prediction by aligning the latent factors and hidden topics. Second, we incorporate the implicit feedback from ratings into the proposed model to enhance its capability and to demonstrate its flexibility. We achieve more accurate rating prediction on real-life datasets over various state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, we measure the contribution from each of the three data sources and the impact of implicit feedback from ratings, followed by the sensitivity analysis of hyperparameters. Empirical studies demonstrate the effectiveness and efficacy of our proposed model and its extension.

In this paper, we propose a listwise approach for constructing user-specific rankings in recommendation systems in a collaborative fashion. We contrast the listwise approach to previous pointwise and pairwise approaches, which are based on treating either each rating or each pairwise comparison as an independent instance respectively. By extending the work of (Cao et al. 2007), we cast listwise collaborative ranking as maximum likelihood under a permutation model which applies probability mass to permutations based on a low rank latent score matrix. We present a novel algorithm called SQL-Rank, which can accommodate ties and missing data and can run in linear time. We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing listwise ranking methods based on a novel representation theory for the permutation model. Applying this framework to collaborative ranking, we derive asymptotic statistical rates as the number of users and items grow together. We conclude by demonstrating that our SQL-Rank method often outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms for implicit feedback such as Weighted-MF and BPR and achieve favorable results when compared to explicit feedback algorithms such as matrix factorization and collaborative ranking.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.

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