In this paper we propose an $\ell_1$-regularized GLS estimator for high-dimensional regressions with potentially autocorrelated errors. We establish non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for estimation accuracy in a framework that allows for highly persistent autoregressive errors. In practice, the Whitening matrix required to implement the GLS is unkown, we present a feasible estimator for this matrix, derive consistency results and ultimately show how our proposed feasible GLS can recover closely the optimal performance (as if the errors were a white noise) of the LASSO. A simulation study verifies the performance of the proposed method, demonstrating that the penalized (feasible) GLS-LASSO estimator performs on par with the LASSO in the case of white noise errors, whilst outperforming it in terms of sign-recovery and estimation error when the errors exhibit significant correlation.
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The constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) framework emerges as an important reinforcement learning approach for imposing safety or other critical objectives while maximizing cumulative reward. However, the current understanding of how to learn efficiently in a CMDP environment with a potentially infinite number of states remains under investigation, particularly when function approximation is applied to the value functions. In this paper, we address the learning problem given linear function approximation with $q_{\pi}$-realizability, where the value functions of all policies are linearly representable with a known feature map, a setting known to be more general and challenging than other linear settings. Utilizing a local-access model, we propose a novel primal-dual algorithm that, after $\tilde{O}(\text{poly}(d) \epsilon^{-3})$ queries, outputs with high probability a policy that strictly satisfies the constraints while nearly optimizing the value with respect to a reward function. Here, $d$ is the feature dimension and $\epsilon > 0$ is a given error. The algorithm relies on a carefully crafted off-policy evaluation procedure to evaluate the policy using historical data, which informs policy updates through policy gradients and conserves samples. To our knowledge, this is the first result achieving polynomial sample complexity for CMDP in the $q_{\pi}$-realizable setting.
Alphas are pivotal in providing signals for quantitative trading. The industry highly values the discovery of formulaic alphas for their interpretability and ease of analysis, compared with the expressive yet overfitting-prone black-box alphas. In this work, we focus on discovering formulaic alphas. Prior studies on automatically generating a collection of formulaic alphas were mostly based on genetic programming (GP), which is known to suffer from the problems of being sensitive to the initial population, converting to local optima, and slow computation speed. Recent efforts employing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for alpha discovery have not fully addressed key practical considerations such as alpha correlations and validity, which are crucial for their effectiveness. In this work, we propose a novel framework for alpha discovery using DRL by formulating the alpha discovery process as program construction. Our agent, $\text{Alpha}^2$, assembles an alpha program optimized for an evaluation metric. A search algorithm guided by DRL navigates through the search space based on value estimates for potential alpha outcomes. The evaluation metric encourages both the performance and the diversity of alphas for a better final trading strategy. Our formulation of searching alphas also brings the advantage of pre-calculation dimensional analysis, ensuring the logical soundness of alphas, and pruning the vast search space to a large extent. Empirical experiments on real-world stock markets demonstrates $\text{Alpha}^2$'s capability to identify a diverse set of logical and effective alphas, which significantly improves the performance of the final trading strategy. The code of our method is available at //github.com/x35f/alpha2.
How novel are texts generated by language models (LMs) relative to their training corpora? In this work, we investigate the extent to which modern LMs generate $n$-grams from their training data, evaluating both (i) the probability LMs assign to complete training $n$-grams and (ii) $n$-novelty, the proportion of $n$-grams generated by an LM that did not appear in the training data (for arbitrarily large $n$). To enable arbitrary-length $n$-gram search over a corpus in constant time, we develop Rusty-DAWG, a novel search tool inspired by indexing of genomic data. We compare the novelty of LM-generated text to human-written text and explore factors that affect generation novelty, focusing on the Pythia models. We find that, for $n > 4$, LM-generated text is less novel than human-written text, though it is more novel for smaller $n$. Larger LMs and more constrained decoding strategies both decrease novelty. Finally, we show that LMs complete $n$-grams with lower loss if they are more frequent in the training data. Overall, our results reveal factors influencing the novelty of LM-generated text, and we release Rusty-DAWG to facilitate further pretraining data research.
We give the first non-trivial decremental dynamic embedding of a weighted, undirected graph $G$ into $\ell_p$ space. Given a weighted graph $G$ undergoing a sequence of edge weight increases, the goal of this problem is to maintain a (randomized) mapping $\phi: (G,d) \to (X,\ell_p)$ from the set of vertices of the graph to the $\ell_p$ space such that for every pair of vertices $u$ and $v$, the expected distance between $\phi(u)$ and $\phi(v)$ in the $\ell_p$ metric is within a small multiplicative factor, referred to as the distortion, of their distance in $G$. Our main result is a dynamic algorithm with expected distortion $O(\log^2 n)$ and total update time $O\left((m^{1+o(1)} \log^2 W + Q)\log(nW) \right)$, where $W$ is the maximum weight of the edges, $Q$ is the total number of updates and $n, m$ denote the number of vertices and edges in $G$ respectively. This is the first result of its kind, extending the seminal result of Bourgain to the expanding field of dynamic algorithms. Moreover, we demonstrate that in the fully dynamic regime, where we tolerate edge insertions as well as deletions, no algorithm can explicitly maintain an embedding into $\ell_p$ space that has a low distortion with high probability.
In this work we establish local limit theorems for q-multinomial and multiple Heine distributions. Specifically, the pointwise convergence of the q-multinomial distribution of the first kind, as well as for its discrete limit, the multiple Heine distribution, to a multivariate Stieltjes-Wigert type distribution, are provided.
Collaborative simultaneous localization and mapping (CSLAM) is essential for autonomous aerial swarms, laying the foundation for downstream algorithms such as planning and control. To address existing CSLAM systems' limitations in relative localization accuracy, crucial for close-range UAV collaboration, this paper introduces $D^2$SLAM-a novel decentralized and distributed CSLAM system. $D^2$SLAM innovatively manages near-field estimation for precise relative state estimation in proximity and far-field estimation for consistent global trajectories. Its adaptable front-end supports both stereo and omnidirectional cameras, catering to various operational needs and overcoming field-of-view challenges in aerial swarms. Experiments demonstrate $D^2$SLAM's effectiveness in accurate ego-motion estimation, relative localization, and global consistency. Enhanced by distributed optimization algorithms, $D^2$SLAM exhibits remarkable scalability and resilience to network delays, making it well-suited for a wide range of real-world aerial swarm applications. The adaptability and proven performance of $D^2$SLAM represent a significant advancement in autonomous aerial swarm technology.
In the realm of autonomous vehicle (AV) perception, comprehending 3D scenes is paramount for tasks such as planning and mapping. Semantic scene completion (SSC) aims to infer scene geometry and semantics from limited observations. While camera-based SSC has gained popularity due to affordability and rich visual cues, existing methods often neglect the inherent uncertainty in models. To address this, we propose an uncertainty-aware camera-based 3D semantic scene completion method ($\alpha$-SSC). Our approach includes an uncertainty propagation framework from depth models (Depth-UP) to enhance geometry completion (up to 11.58% improvement) and semantic segmentation (up to 14.61% improvement). Additionally, we propose a hierarchical conformal prediction (HCP) method to quantify SSC uncertainty, effectively addressing high-level class imbalance in SSC datasets. On the geometry level, we present a novel KL divergence-based score function that significantly improves the occupied recall of safety-critical classes (45% improvement) with minimal performance overhead (3.4% reduction). For uncertainty quantification, we demonstrate the ability to achieve smaller prediction set sizes while maintaining a defined coverage guarantee. Compared with baselines, it achieves up to 85% reduction in set sizes. Our contributions collectively signify significant advancements in SSC accuracy and robustness, marking a noteworthy step forward in autonomous perception systems.
Methods of computational quantum chemistry provide accurate approximations of molecular properties crucial for computer-aided drug discovery and other areas of chemical science. However, high computational complexity limits the scalability of their applications. Neural network potentials (NNPs) are a promising alternative to quantum chemistry methods, but they require large and diverse datasets for training. This work presents a new dataset and benchmark called $\nabla^2$DFT that is based on the nablaDFT. It contains twice as much molecular structures, three times more conformations, new data types and tasks, and state-of-the-art models. The dataset includes energies, forces, 17 molecular properties, Hamiltonian and overlap matrices, and a wavefunction object. All calculations were performed at the DFT level ($\omega$B97X-D/def2-SVP) for each conformation. Moreover, $\nabla^2$DFT is the first dataset that contains relaxation trajectories for a substantial number of drug-like molecules. We also introduce a novel benchmark for evaluating NNPs in molecular property prediction, Hamiltonian prediction, and conformational optimization tasks. Finally, we propose an extendable framework for training NNPs and implement 10 models within it.
Fairness in decision-making processes is often quantified using probabilistic metrics. However, these metrics may not fully capture the real-world consequences of unfairness. In this article, we adopt a utility-based approach to more accurately measure the real-world impacts of decision-making process. In particular, we show that if the concept of $\varepsilon$-fairness is employed, it can possibly lead to outcomes that are maximally unfair in the real-world context. Additionally, we address the common issue of unavailable data on false negatives by proposing a reduced setting that still captures essential fairness considerations. We illustrate our findings with two real-world examples: college admissions and credit risk assessment. Our analysis reveals that while traditional probability-based evaluations might suggest fairness, a utility-based approach uncovers the necessary actions to truly achieve equality. For instance, in the college admission case, we find that enhancing completion rates is crucial for ensuring fairness. Summarizing, this paper highlights the importance of considering the real-world context when evaluating fairness.
As one of popular quantitative metrics to assess the quality of explanation of graph neural networks (GNNs), fidelity measures the output difference after removing unimportant parts of the input graph. Fidelity has been widely used due to its straightforward interpretation that the underlying model should produce similar predictions when features deemed unimportant from the explanation are removed. This raises a natural question: "Does fidelity induce a global (soft) mask for graph pruning?" To solve this, we aim to explore the potential of the fidelity measure to be used for graph pruning, eventually enhancing the GNN models for better efficiency. To this end, we propose Fidelity$^-$-inspired Pruning (FiP), an effective framework to construct global edge masks from local explanations. Our empirical observations using 7 edge attribution methods demonstrate that, surprisingly, general eXplainable AI methods outperform methods tailored to GNNs in terms of graph pruning performance.
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