This work focuses on the space-time reduced-order modeling (ROM) method for solving large-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems with multiple random coefficients. In contrast with the traditional space ROM approach, which performs dimension reduction in the spatial dimension, the space-time ROM approach performs dimension reduction on both the spatial and temporal domains, and thus enables accurate approximate solutions at a low cost. We incorporate the space-time ROM strategy with various classical stochastic UQ propagation methods such as stochastic Galerkin and Monte Carlo. Numerical results demonstrate that our methodology has significant computational advantages compared to state-of-the-art ROM approaches. By testing the approximation errors, we show that there is no obvious loss of simulation accuracy for space-time ROM given its high computational efficiency.
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This paper deals with robust inference for parametric copula models. Estimation using Canonical Maximum Likelihood might be unstable, especially in the presence of outliers. We propose to use a procedure based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) principle. We derive non-asymptotic oracle inequalities, consistency and asymptotic normality of this new estimator. In particular, the oracle inequality holds without any assumption on the copula family, and can be applied in the presence of outliers or under misspecification. Moreover, in our MMD framework, the statistical inference of copula models for which there exists no density with respect to the Lebesgue measure on $[0,1]^d$, as the Marshall-Olkin copula, becomes feasible. A simulation study shows the robustness of our new procedures, especially compared to pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation. An R package implementing the MMD estimator for copula models is available.
We construct a space-time parallel method for solving parabolic partial differential equations by coupling the Parareal algorithm in time with overlapping domain decomposition in space. The goal is to obtain a discretization consisting of "local" problems that can be solved on parallel computers efficiently. However, this introduces significant sources of error that must be evaluated. Reformulating the original Parareal algorithm as a variational method and implementing a finite element discretization in space enables an adjoint-based a posteriori error analysis to be performed. Through an appropriate choice of adjoint problems and residuals the error analysis distinguishes between errors arising due to the temporal and spatial discretizations, as well as between the errors arising due to incomplete Parareal iterations and incomplete iterations of the domain decomposition solver. We first develop an error analysis for the Parareal method applied to parabolic partial differential equations, and then refine this analysis to the case where the associated spatial problems are solved using overlapping domain decomposition. These constitute our Time Parallel Algorithm (TPA) and Space-Time Parallel Algorithm (STPA) respectively. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy of the estimator for both algorithms and the iterations between distinct components of the error.
The popular LSPE($\lambda$) algorithm for policy evaluation is revisited to derive a concentration bound that gives high probability performance guarantees from some time on.
We study timed systems in which some timing features are unknown parameters. Parametric timed automata (PTAs) are a classical formalism for such systems but for which most interesting problems are undecidable. Notably, the parametric reachability emptiness problem, i.e., the emptiness of the parameter valuations set allowing to reach some given discrete state, is undecidable. Lower-bound/upper-bound parametric timed automata (L/U-PTAs) achieve decidability for reachability properties by enforcing a separation of parameters used as upper bounds in the automaton constraints, and those used as lower bounds. In this paper, we first study reachability. We exhibit a subclass of PTAs (namely integer-points PTAs) with bounded rational-valued parameters for which the parametric reachability emptiness problem is decidable. Using this class, we present further results improving the boundary between decidability and undecidability for PTAs and their subclasses such as L/U-PTAs. We then study liveness. We prove that: (1) the existence of at least one parameter valuation for which there exists an infinite run in an L/U-PTA is PSPACE-complete; (2) the existence of a parameter valuation such that the system has a deadlock is however undecidable; (3) the problem of the existence of a valuation for which a run remains in a given set of locations exhibits a very thin border between decidability and undecidability.
Transformers are state-of-the-art in a wide range of NLP tasks and have also been applied to many real-world products. Understanding the reliability and certainty of transformer model predictions is crucial for building trustable machine learning applications, e.g., medical diagnosis. Although many recent transformer extensions have been proposed, the study of the uncertainty estimation of transformer models is under-explored. In this work, we propose a novel way to enable transformers to have the capability of uncertainty estimation and, meanwhile, retain the original predictive performance. This is achieved by learning a hierarchical stochastic self-attention that attends to values and a set of learnable centroids, respectively. Then new attention heads are formed with a mixture of sampled centroids using the Gumbel-Softmax trick. We theoretically show that the self-attention approximation by sampling from a Gumbel distribution is upper bounded. We empirically evaluate our model on two text classification tasks with both in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach: (1) achieves the best predictive performance and uncertainty trade-off among compared methods; (2) exhibits very competitive (in most cases, improved) predictive performance on ID datasets; (3) is on par with Monte Carlo dropout and ensemble methods in uncertainty estimation on OOD datasets.
Recent work has shown that a variety of semantics emerge in the latent space of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) when being trained to synthesize images. However, it is difficult to use these learned semantics for real image editing. A common practice of feeding a real image to a trained GAN generator is to invert it back to a latent code. However, existing inversion methods typically focus on reconstructing the target image by pixel values yet fail to land the inverted code in the semantic domain of the original latent space. As a result, the reconstructed image cannot well support semantic editing through varying the inverted code. To solve this problem, we propose an in-domain GAN inversion approach, which not only faithfully reconstructs the input image but also ensures the inverted code to be semantically meaningful for editing. We first learn a novel domain-guided encoder to project a given image to the native latent space of GANs. We then propose domain-regularized optimization by involving the encoder as a regularizer to fine-tune the code produced by the encoder and better recover the target image. Extensive experiments suggest that our inversion method achieves satisfying real image reconstruction and more importantly facilitates various image editing tasks, significantly outperforming start-of-the-arts.
Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired density represented by a set of samples. Our approach considers an existing Monte Carlo rendering algorithm as a black box. During a scene-dependent training phase, we learn to generate samples with a desired density in the primary sample space of the rendering algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation. We leverage a recent neural network architecture that was designed to represent real-valued non-volume preserving ('Real NVP') transformations in high dimensional spaces. We use Real NVP to non-linearly warp primary sample space and obtain desired densities. In addition, Real NVP efficiently computes the determinant of the Jacobian of the warp, which is required to implement the change of integration variables implied by the warp. A main advantage of our approach is that it is agnostic of underlying light transport effects, and can be combined with many existing rendering techniques by treating them as a black box. We show that our approach leads to effective variance reduction in several practical scenarios.
Network embedding has attracted considerable research attention recently. However, the existing methods are incapable of handling billion-scale networks, because they are computationally expensive and, at the same time, difficult to be accelerated by distributed computing schemes. To address these problems, we propose RandNE, a novel and simple billion-scale network embedding method. Specifically, we propose a Gaussian random projection approach to map the network into a low-dimensional embedding space while preserving the high-order proximities between nodes. To reduce the time complexity, we design an iterative projection procedure to avoid the explicit calculation of the high-order proximities. Theoretical analysis shows that our method is extremely efficient, and friendly to distributed computing schemes without any communication cost in the calculation. We demonstrate the efficacy of RandNE over state-of-the-art methods in network reconstruction and link prediction tasks on multiple datasets with different scales, ranging from thousands to billions of nodes and edges.
This work considers the problem of provably optimal reinforcement learning for episodic finite horizon MDPs, i.e. how an agent learns to maximize his/her long term reward in an uncertain environment. The main contribution is in providing a novel algorithm --- Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) --- which enjoys a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HSAT} + H^5SA)$, where the $T$ is the number of time steps the agent acts in the MDP, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $H$ is the (episodic) horizon time. This is the first regret bound that is both sub-linear in the model size and asymptotically optimal. The algorithm is sub-linear in that the time to achieve $\epsilon$-average regret for any constant $\epsilon$ is $O(SA)$, which is a number of samples that is far less than that required to learn any non-trivial estimate of the transition model (the transition model is specified by $O(S^2A)$ parameters). The importance of sub-linear algorithms is largely the motivation for algorithms such as $Q$-learning and other "model free" approaches. vUCQ algorithm also enjoys minimax optimal regret in the long run, matching the $\Omega(\sqrt{HSAT})$ lower bound. Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) is a successive refinement method in which the algorithm reduces the variance in $Q$-value estimates and couples this estimation scheme with an upper confidence based algorithm. Technically, the coupling of both of these techniques is what leads to the algorithm enjoying both the sub-linear regret property and the asymptotically optimal regret.
We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.
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