This study introduces a novel Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, employing mortality covariates $k_t$ and $k_{ct}$ as proposed by Dastranj- Kol\'a\vr (DK-LME). The GAMM effectively predicts age-specific death rates (ASDRs) in both single and multi-population contexts. Empirical evaluations using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) demonstrate the model's exceptional performance in accurately capturing observed mortality rates. In the DK-LME model, the relationship between log ASDRs, and $k_t$ did not provide a perfect fit. Our study shows that the GAMM addresses this limitation. Additionally, as discussed in the DK-LME model, ASDRs represent longitudinal data. The GAMM offers a suitable alternative to the DK-LME model for modelling and forecasting mortality rates. We will compare the forecast accuracy of the GAMM with both the DK-LME and Li-Lee models in multi-population scenarios, as well as with LC models in single population scenarios. Comparative analyses highlight the GAMM's superior sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting performance, positioning it as a promising tool for mortality modelling and forecasting.
This paper considers the classical problem of sampling with Monte Carlo methods a target probability distribution obtained by conditioning on a rare event defined by the level set of a real-valued score function that is very expensive to compute. We also consider a context where, with each new evaluation of the true score function, a method that iteratively builds a sequence of reduced scores is available; these reduced scores being moreover certified with pointwise error bounds. This work proposes a fully adaptive algorithm that iteratively: i) builds a sequence of proposal distributions obtained by conditioning on the reduced score above an adaptively well-chosen level, and ii) draws from the latter both for importance sampling of the true target rare events, as well as for proposing relevant (expensive) updates to the reduced score. An essential contribution consists in the adaptive choice of the level in i) and ii). The latter is calculated solely from the reduced score and its error bound, and is interpreted as the first non-achievable level as quantified by a given cost (in a pessimistic scenario) of importance sampling of the associated true target distribution. From a practical point of view, sampling the proposal sequence is performed by extending the framework of the popular Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS) algorithm to the use of score function reduction. Numerical experiments evaluate the proposed importance sampling algorithm in terms of computational complexity versus squared error. In particular, we investigate the performance of the algorithm when simulating rare events related to the solution of a parametric PDE approximated by a reduced basis.
In temporal extensions of Answer Set Programming (ASP) based on linear-time, the behavior of dynamic systems is captured by sequences of states. While this representation reflects their relative order, it abstracts away the specific times associated with each state. In many applications, however, timing constraints are important like, for instance, when planning and scheduling go hand in hand. We address this by developing a metric extension of linear-time Dynamic Equilibrium Logic, in which dynamic operators are constrained by intervals over integers. The resulting Metric Dynamic Equilibrium Logic provides the foundation of an ASP-based approach for specifying qualitative and quantitative dynamic constraints. As such, it constitutes the most general among a whole spectrum of temporal extensions of Equilibrium Logic. In detail, we show that it encompasses Temporal, Dynamic, Metric, and regular Equilibrium Logic, as well as its classic counterparts once the law of the excluded middle is added.
This study introduces the Lower Ricci Curvature (LRC), a novel, scalable, and scale-free discrete curvature designed to enhance community detection in networks. Addressing the computational challenges posed by existing curvature-based methods, LRC offers a streamlined approach with linear computational complexity, making it well-suited for large-scale network analysis. We further develop an LRC-based preprocessing method that effectively augments popular community detection algorithms. Through comprehensive simulations and applications on real-world datasets, including the NCAA football league network, the DBLP collaboration network, the Amazon product co-purchasing network, and the YouTube social network, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method in significantly improving the performance of various community detection algorithms.
Graph learning architectures based on the k-dimensional Weisfeiler-Leman (k-WL) hierarchy offer a theoretically well-understood expressive power. However, such architectures often fail to deliver solid predictive performance on real-world tasks, limiting their practical impact. In contrast, global attention-based models such as graph transformers demonstrate strong performance in practice, but comparing their expressive power with the k-WL hierarchy remains challenging, particularly since these architectures rely on positional or structural encodings for their expressivity and predictive performance. To address this, we show that the recently proposed Edge Transformer, a global attention model operating on node pairs instead of nodes, has at least 3-WL expressive power. Empirically, we demonstrate that the Edge Transformer surpasses other theoretically aligned architectures regarding predictive performance while not relying on positional or structural encodings.
The aim of this work is to develop a fully-distributed algorithmic framework for training graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The proposed method is able to exploit the meaningful relational structure of the input data, which are collected by a set of agents that communicate over a sparse network topology. After formulating the centralized GCN training problem, we first show how to make inference in a distributed scenario where the underlying data graph is split among different agents. Then, we propose a distributed gradient descent procedure to solve the GCN training problem. The resulting model distributes computation along three lines: during inference, during back-propagation, and during optimization. Convergence to stationary solutions of the GCN training problem is also established under mild conditions. Finally, we propose an optimization criterion to design the communication topology between agents in order to match with the graph describing data relationships. A wide set of numerical results validate our proposal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining graph convolutional neural networks with distributed optimization.
Deep learning methods for graphs achieve remarkable performance on many node-level and graph-level prediction tasks. However, despite the proliferation of the methods and their success, prevailing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) neglect subgraphs, rendering subgraph prediction tasks challenging to tackle in many impactful applications. Further, subgraph prediction tasks present several unique challenges, because subgraphs can have non-trivial internal topology, but also carry a notion of position and external connectivity information relative to the underlying graph in which they exist. Here, we introduce SUB-GNN, a subgraph neural network to learn disentangled subgraph representations. In particular, we propose a novel subgraph routing mechanism that propagates neural messages between the subgraph's components and randomly sampled anchor patches from the underlying graph, yielding highly accurate subgraph representations. SUB-GNN specifies three channels, each designed to capture a distinct aspect of subgraph structure, and we provide empirical evidence that the channels encode their intended properties. We design a series of new synthetic and real-world subgraph datasets. Empirical results for subgraph classification on eight datasets show that SUB-GNN achieves considerable performance gains, outperforming strong baseline methods, including node-level and graph-level GNNs, by 12.4% over the strongest baseline. SUB-GNN performs exceptionally well on challenging biomedical datasets when subgraphs have complex topology and even comprise multiple disconnected components.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have recently become the primary choice for learning from graph-structured data, superseding hash fingerprints in representing chemical compounds. However, GCNs lack the ability to take into account the ordering of node neighbors, even when there is a geometric interpretation of the graph vertices that provides an order based on their spatial positions. To remedy this issue, we propose Geometric Graph Convolutional Network (geo-GCN) which uses spatial features to efficiently learn from graphs that can be naturally located in space. Our contribution is threefold: we propose a GCN-inspired architecture which (i) leverages node positions, (ii) is a proper generalisation of both GCNs and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), (iii) benefits from augmentation which further improves the performance and assures invariance with respect to the desired properties. Empirically, geo-GCN outperforms state-of-the-art graph-based methods on image classification and chemical tasks.
Attention networks in multimodal learning provide an efficient way to utilize given visual information selectively. However, the computational cost to learn attention distributions for every pair of multimodal input channels is prohibitively expensive. To solve this problem, co-attention builds two separate attention distributions for each modality neglecting the interaction between multimodal inputs. In this paper, we propose bilinear attention networks (BAN) that find bilinear attention distributions to utilize given vision-language information seamlessly. BAN considers bilinear interactions among two groups of input channels, while low-rank bilinear pooling extracts the joint representations for each pair of channels. Furthermore, we propose a variant of multimodal residual networks to exploit eight-attention maps of the BAN efficiently. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate our model on visual question answering (VQA 2.0) and Flickr30k Entities datasets, showing that BAN significantly outperforms previous methods and achieves new state-of-the-arts on both datasets.
We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.
This paper proposes a method to modify traditional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) into interpretable CNNs, in order to clarify knowledge representations in high conv-layers of CNNs. In an interpretable CNN, each filter in a high conv-layer represents a certain object part. We do not need any annotations of object parts or textures to supervise the learning process. Instead, the interpretable CNN automatically assigns each filter in a high conv-layer with an object part during the learning process. Our method can be applied to different types of CNNs with different structures. The clear knowledge representation in an interpretable CNN can help people understand the logics inside a CNN, i.e., based on which patterns the CNN makes the decision. Experiments showed that filters in an interpretable CNN were more semantically meaningful than those in traditional CNNs.