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Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent growth of forecasting, a political science tool that uses explicit assumptions and quantitative estimation that leads to improved prediction accuracy. Done at the collective level, forecasting can identify and verify talent, enable leaders to build better models of AI advancements and improve inputs into design policy. Successful approaches to forecasting and case studies are examined, revealing a subclass of "superforecasters" who outperform 98% of the population and whose insights will be most reliable. Finally, techniques behind successful forecasting are outlined, including Phillip Tetlock's "Ten Commandments." To adapt to a quickly changing technology landscape, designers and policymakers should consider forecasting as a first line of defense.

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藝(yi)術迄今依舊(jiu)沒有公(gong)認(ren)的(de)定義,目(mu)前廣義的(de)藝(yi)術乃是(shi)由具有智能(neng)思考能(neng)力的(de)動(dong)(dong)物,透過各(ge)種(zhong)形式及工具以(yi)表達其情(qing)感與意識(shi),因(yin)而產生的(de)結果(guo)。藝(yi)術不只存(cun)在(zai)于人(ren)類(lei)社會(hui)中,也存(cun)在(zai)于其他相(xiang)對高等的(de)動(dong)(dong)物。

Assessing student answers and providing valuable feedback is crucial for effective learning, but it can be a time-consuming task. Traditional methods of automating student answer assessment through text classification often suffer from issues such as lack of trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to provide a rationale for the automated assessment process. These limitations hinder their usefulness in practice. In this paper, we explore using ChatGPT, a cutting-edge large language model, for the concurrent tasks of student answer scoring and rationale generation under both the zero-shot and few-shot settings. We introduce a critic module which automatically filters incorrect outputs from ChatGPT and utilizes the remaining ChtaGPT outputs as noisy labelled data to fine-tune a smaller language model, enabling it to perform student answer scoring and rationale generation. Moreover, by drawing multiple samples from ChatGPT outputs, we are able to compute predictive confidence scores, which in turn can be used to identify corrupted data and human label errors in the training set. Our experimental results demonstrate that despite being a few orders of magnitude smaller than ChatGPT, the fine-tuned language model achieves better performance in student answer scoring. Furthermore, it generates more detailed and comprehensible assessments than traditional text classification methods. Our approach provides a viable solution to achieve explainable automated assessment in education.

In-memory computing for Machine Learning (ML) applications remedies the von Neumann bottlenecks by organizing computation to exploit parallelism and locality. Non-volatile memory devices such as Resistive RAM (ReRAM) offer integrated switching and storage capabilities showing promising performance for ML applications. However, ReRAM devices have design challenges, such as non-linear digital-analog conversion and circuit overheads. This paper proposes an In-Memory Boolean-to-Current Inference Architecture (IMBUE) that uses ReRAM-transistor cells to eliminate the need for such conversions. IMBUE processes Boolean feature inputs expressed as digital voltages and generates parallel current paths based on resistive memory states. The proportional column current is then translated back to the Boolean domain for further digital processing. The IMBUE architecture is inspired by the Tsetlin Machine (TM), an emerging ML algorithm based on intrinsically Boolean logic. The IMBUE architecture demonstrates significant performance improvements over binarized convolutional neural networks and digital TM in-memory implementations, achieving up to a 12.99x and 5.28x increase, respectively.

The safe and stable operation of power systems is greatly challenged by the high variability and randomness of wind power in large-scale wind-power-integrated grids. Wind power forecasting is an effective solution to tackle this issue, with wind speed forecasting being an essential aspect. In this paper, a Graph-attentive Frequency-enhanced Spatial-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting model based on graph attention and frequency-enhanced mechanisms, i.e., GFST-WSF, is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term wind speed forecasting. The GFST-WSF comprises a Transformer architecture for temporal feature extraction and a Graph Attention Network (GAT) for spatial feature extraction. The GAT is specifically designed to capture the complex spatial dependencies among wind speed stations to effectively aggregate information from neighboring nodes in the graph, thus enhancing the spatial representation of the data. To model the time lag in wind speed correlation between adjacent wind farms caused by geographical factors, a dynamic complex adjacency matrix is formulated and utilized by the GAT. Benefiting from the effective spatio-temporal feature extraction and the deep architecture of the Transformer, the GFST-WSF outperforms other baselines in wind speed forecasting for the 6-24 hours ahead forecast horizon in case studies.

This paper introduces a novel explainable image quality evaluation approach called X-IQE, which leverages visual large language models (LLMs) to evaluate text-to-image generation methods by generating textual explanations. X-IQE utilizes a hierarchical Chain of Thought (CoT) to enable MiniGPT-4 to produce self-consistent, unbiased texts that are highly correlated with human evaluation. It offers several advantages, including the ability to distinguish between real and generated images, evaluate text-image alignment, and assess image aesthetics without requiring model training or fine-tuning. X-IQE is more cost-effective and efficient compared to human evaluation, while significantly enhancing the transparency and explainability of deep image quality evaluation models. We validate the effectiveness of our method as a benchmark using images generated by prevalent diffusion models. X-IQE demonstrates similar performance to state-of-the-art (SOTA) evaluation methods on COCO Caption, while overcoming the limitations of previous evaluation models on DrawBench, particularly in handling ambiguous generation prompts and text recognition in generated images. Project website: //github.com/Schuture/Benchmarking-Awesome-Diffusion-Models

Multimodal machine learning is a vibrant multi-disciplinary research field that aims to design computer agents with intelligent capabilities such as understanding, reasoning, and learning through integrating multiple communicative modalities, including linguistic, acoustic, visual, tactile, and physiological messages. With the recent interest in video understanding, embodied autonomous agents, text-to-image generation, and multisensor fusion in application domains such as healthcare and robotics, multimodal machine learning has brought unique computational and theoretical challenges to the machine learning community given the heterogeneity of data sources and the interconnections often found between modalities. However, the breadth of progress in multimodal research has made it difficult to identify the common themes and open questions in the field. By synthesizing a broad range of application domains and theoretical frameworks from both historical and recent perspectives, this paper is designed to provide an overview of the computational and theoretical foundations of multimodal machine learning. We start by defining two key principles of modality heterogeneity and interconnections that have driven subsequent innovations, and propose a taxonomy of 6 core technical challenges: representation, alignment, reasoning, generation, transference, and quantification covering historical and recent trends. Recent technical achievements will be presented through the lens of this taxonomy, allowing researchers to understand the similarities and differences across new approaches. We end by motivating several open problems for future research as identified by our taxonomy.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.

Human-in-the-loop aims to train an accurate prediction model with minimum cost by integrating human knowledge and experience. Humans can provide training data for machine learning applications and directly accomplish some tasks that are hard for computers in the pipeline with the help of machine-based approaches. In this paper, we survey existing works on human-in-the-loop from a data perspective and classify them into three categories with a progressive relationship: (1) the work of improving model performance from data processing, (2) the work of improving model performance through interventional model training, and (3) the design of the system independent human-in-the-loop. Using the above categorization, we summarize major approaches in the field, along with their technical strengths/ weaknesses, we have simple classification and discussion in natural language processing, computer vision, and others. Besides, we provide some open challenges and opportunities. This survey intends to provide a high-level summarization for human-in-the-loop and motivates interested readers to consider approaches for designing effective human-in-the-loop solutions.

The potential of graph convolutional neural networks for the task of zero-shot learning has been demonstrated recently. These models are highly sample efficient as related concepts in the graph structure share statistical strength allowing generalization to new classes when faced with a lack of data. However, knowledge from distant nodes can get diluted when propagating through intermediate nodes, because current approaches to zero-shot learning use graph propagation schemes that perform Laplacian smoothing at each layer. We show that extensive smoothing does not help the task of regressing classifier weights in zero-shot learning. In order to still incorporate information from distant nodes and utilize the graph structure, we propose an Attentive Dense Graph Propagation Module (ADGPM). ADGPM allows us to exploit the hierarchical graph structure of the knowledge graph through additional connections. These connections are added based on a node's relationship to its ancestors and descendants and an attention scheme is further used to weigh their contribution depending on the distance to the node. Finally, we illustrate that finetuning of the feature representation after training the ADGPM leads to considerable improvements. Our method achieves competitive results, outperforming previous zero-shot learning approaches.

We propose a novel attention gate (AG) model for medical imaging that automatically learns to focus on target structures of varying shapes and sizes. Models trained with AGs implicitly learn to suppress irrelevant regions in an input image while highlighting salient features useful for a specific task. This enables us to eliminate the necessity of using explicit external tissue/organ localisation modules of cascaded convolutional neural networks (CNNs). AGs can be easily integrated into standard CNN architectures such as the U-Net model with minimal computational overhead while increasing the model sensitivity and prediction accuracy. The proposed Attention U-Net architecture is evaluated on two large CT abdominal datasets for multi-class image segmentation. Experimental results show that AGs consistently improve the prediction performance of U-Net across different datasets and training sizes while preserving computational efficiency. The code for the proposed architecture is publicly available.

Explainable Recommendation refers to the personalized recommendation algorithms that address the problem of why -- they not only provide the user with the recommendations, but also make the user aware why such items are recommended by generating recommendation explanations, which help to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, persuasiveness, and user satisfaction of recommender systems. In recent years, a large number of explainable recommendation approaches -- especially model-based explainable recommendation algorithms -- have been proposed and adopted in real-world systems. In this survey, we review the work on explainable recommendation that has been published in or before the year of 2018. We first high-light the position of explainable recommendation in recommender system research by categorizing recommendation problems into the 5W, i.e., what, when, who, where, and why. We then conduct a comprehensive survey of explainable recommendation itself in terms of three aspects: 1) We provide a chronological research line of explanations in recommender systems, including the user study approaches in the early years, as well as the more recent model-based approaches. 2) We provide a taxonomy for explainable recommendation algorithms, including user-based, item-based, model-based, and post-model explanations. 3) We summarize the application of explainable recommendation in different recommendation tasks, including product recommendation, social recommendation, POI recommendation, etc. We devote a chapter to discuss the explanation perspectives in the broader IR and machine learning settings, as well as their relationship with explainable recommendation research. We end the survey by discussing potential future research directions to promote the explainable recommendation research area.

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