We seek to democratise public-opinion research by providing practitioners with a general methodology to make representative inference from cheap, high-frequency, highly unrepresentative samples. We focus specifically on samples which are readily available in moderate sizes. To this end, we provide two major contributions: 1) we introduce a general sample-selection process which we name online selection, and show it is a special-case of selection on the dependent variable. We improve MrP for severely biased samples by introducing a bias-correction term in the style of King and Zeng to the logistic-regression framework. We show this bias-corrected model outperforms traditional MrP under online selection, and achieves performance similar to random-sampling in a vast array of scenarios; 2) we present a protocol to use Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract structured, survey-like data from social-media. We provide a prompt-style that can be easily adapted to a variety of survey designs. We show that LLMs agree with human raters with respect to the demographic, socio-economic and political characteristics of these online users. The end-to-end implementation takes unrepresentative, unsrtuctured social media data as inputs, and produces timely high-quality area-level estimates as outputs. This is Artificially Intelligent Opinion Polling. We show that our AI polling estimates of the 2020 election are highly accurate, on-par with estimates produced by state-level polling aggregators such as FiveThirtyEight, or from MrP models fit to extremely expensive high-quality samples.
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In many real world situations, like minor traffic offenses in big cities, a central authority is tasked with periodic administering punishments to a large number of individuals. Common practice is to give each individual a chance to suffer a smaller fine and be guaranteed to avoid the legal process with probable considerably larger punishment. However, thanks to the large number of offenders and a limited capacity of the central authority, the individual risk is typically small and a rational individual will not choose to pay the fine. Here we show that if the central authority processes the offenders in a publicly known order, it properly incentives the offenders to pay the fine. We show analytically and on realistic experiments that our mechanism promotes non-cooperation and incentives individuals to pay. Moreover, the same holds for an arbitrary coalition. We quantify the expected total payment the central authority receives, and show it increases considerably.
The problem of nearest neighbor condensing has enjoyed a long history of study, both in its theoretical and practical aspects. In this paper, we introduce the problem of weighted distance nearest neighbor condensing, where one assigns weights to each point of the condensed set, and then new points are labeled based on their weighted distance nearest neighbor in the condensed set. We study the theoretical properties of this new model, and show that it can produce dramatically better condensing than the standard nearest neighbor rule, yet is characterized by generalization bounds almost identical to the latter. We then suggest a condensing heuristic for our new problem. We demonstrate Bayes consistency for this heuristic, and also show promising empirical results.
We propose a novel interpretable deep neural network for text classification, called ProtoryNet, based on a new concept of prototype trajectories. Motivated by the prototype theory in modern linguistics, ProtoryNet makes a prediction by finding the most similar prototype for each sentence in a text sequence and feeding an RNN backbone with the proximity of each sentence to the corresponding active prototype. The RNN backbone then captures the temporal pattern of the prototypes, which we refer to as prototype trajectories. Prototype trajectories enable intuitive and fine-grained interpretation of the reasoning process of the RNN model, in resemblance to how humans analyze texts. We also design a prototype pruning procedure to reduce the total number of prototypes used by the model for better interpretability. Experiments on multiple public data sets show that ProtoryNet is more accurate than the baseline prototype-based deep neural net and reduces the performance gap compared to state-of-the-art black-box models. In addition, after prototype pruning, the resulting ProtoryNet models only need less than or around 20 prototypes for all datasets, which significantly benefits interpretability. Furthermore, we report a survey result indicating that human users find ProtoryNet more intuitive and easier to understand than other prototype-based methods.
Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.
When developing policies for prevention of infectious diseases, policymakers often set specific, outcome-oriented targets to achieve. For example, when developing a vaccine allocation policy, policymakers may want to distribute them so that at least a certain fraction of individuals in a census block are disease-free and spillover effects due to interference within blocks are accounted for. The paper proposes methods to estimate a block-level treatment policy that achieves a pre-defined, outcome-oriented target while accounting for spillover effects due to interference. Our policy, the minimum resource threshold policy (MRTP), suggests the minimum fraction of treated units required within a block to meet or exceed the target level of the outcome. We estimate the MRTP from empirical risk minimization using a novel, nonparametric, doubly robust loss function. We then characterize statistical properties of the estimated MRTP in terms of the excess risk bound. We apply our methodology to design a water, sanitation, and hygiene allocation policy for Senegal with the goal of increasing the proportion of households with no children experiencing diarrhea to a level exceeding a specified threshold. Our policy outperforms competing policies and offers new approaches to design allocation policies, especially in international development for communicable diseases.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been widely used in representation learning on graphs and achieved state-of-the-art performance in tasks such as node classification and link prediction. However, most existing GNNs are designed to learn node representations on the fixed and homogeneous graphs. The limitations especially become problematic when learning representations on a misspecified graph or a heterogeneous graph that consists of various types of nodes and edges. In this paper, we propose Graph Transformer Networks (GTNs) that are capable of generating new graph structures, which involve identifying useful connections between unconnected nodes on the original graph, while learning effective node representation on the new graphs in an end-to-end fashion. Graph Transformer layer, a core layer of GTNs, learns a soft selection of edge types and composite relations for generating useful multi-hop connections so-called meta-paths. Our experiments show that GTNs learn new graph structures, based on data and tasks without domain knowledge, and yield powerful node representation via convolution on the new graphs. Without domain-specific graph preprocessing, GTNs achieved the best performance in all three benchmark node classification tasks against the state-of-the-art methods that require pre-defined meta-paths from domain knowledge.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and their variants have experienced significant attention and have become the de facto methods for learning graph representations. GCNs derive inspiration primarily from recent deep learning approaches, and as a result, may inherit unnecessary complexity and redundant computation. In this paper, we reduce this excess complexity through successively removing nonlinearities and collapsing weight matrices between consecutive layers. We theoretically analyze the resulting linear model and show that it corresponds to a fixed low-pass filter followed by a linear classifier. Notably, our experimental evaluation demonstrates that these simplifications do not negatively impact accuracy in many downstream applications. Moreover, the resulting model scales to larger datasets, is naturally interpretable, and yields up to two orders of magnitude speedup over FastGCN.
We propose a Bayesian convolutional neural network built upon Bayes by Backprop and elaborate how this known method can serve as the fundamental construct of our novel, reliable variational inference method for convolutional neural networks. First, we show how Bayes by Backprop can be applied to convolutional layers where weights in filters have probability distributions instead of point-estimates; and second, how our proposed framework leads with various network architectures to performances comparable to convolutional neural networks with point-estimates weights. In the past, Bayes by Backprop has been successfully utilised in feedforward and recurrent neural networks, but not in convolutional ones. This work symbolises the extension of the group of Bayesian neural networks which encompasses all three aforementioned types of network architectures now.
This paper proposes a method to modify traditional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) into interpretable CNNs, in order to clarify knowledge representations in high conv-layers of CNNs. In an interpretable CNN, each filter in a high conv-layer represents a certain object part. We do not need any annotations of object parts or textures to supervise the learning process. Instead, the interpretable CNN automatically assigns each filter in a high conv-layer with an object part during the learning process. Our method can be applied to different types of CNNs with different structures. The clear knowledge representation in an interpretable CNN can help people understand the logics inside a CNN, i.e., based on which patterns the CNN makes the decision. Experiments showed that filters in an interpretable CNN were more semantically meaningful than those in traditional CNNs.
The dominant sequence transduction models are based on complex recurrent or convolutional neural networks in an encoder-decoder configuration. The best performing models also connect the encoder and decoder through an attention mechanism. We propose a new simple network architecture, the Transformer, based solely on attention mechanisms, dispensing with recurrence and convolutions entirely. Experiments on two machine translation tasks show these models to be superior in quality while being more parallelizable and requiring significantly less time to train. Our model achieves 28.4 BLEU on the WMT 2014 English-to-German translation task, improving over the existing best results, including ensembles by over 2 BLEU. On the WMT 2014 English-to-French translation task, our model establishes a new single-model state-of-the-art BLEU score of 41.8 after training for 3.5 days on eight GPUs, a small fraction of the training costs of the best models from the literature. We show that the Transformer generalizes well to other tasks by applying it successfully to English constituency parsing both with large and limited training data.
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